Evidence against large number of asymptomatic carriers

1,746 Views | 5 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by McInnis
Snap E Tom
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https://www.sanmiguelcountyco.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=511

They've tested 4200 people in San Miguel County, Colorado, fairly rural and isolated, and found less than 1% had the antibodies. Another 2% were "indeterminate," but from what I understand, you have to count those as negatives because it's very likely a negative. Would love to hear a doctor's opinion, but it seems like it'll take a while for herd immunity to kick in with those numbers.
normaleagle05
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AG
Where does it say they tested 4200 people?
Tom Cardy
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AG
They have antibody testing? Wasn't that being discussed as something that would be good to have, that we don't have?
Snap E Tom
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normaleagle05 said:

Where does it say they tested 4200 people?
A different press release:

https://www.sanmiguelcountyco.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=504
ABATTBQ11
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AG
Quote:

(April 1, 2020) -- San Miguel County, CO -- San Miguel County Public Health officials announced today that less than 1 percent of the COVID-19 blood tests done last Thursday and Friday were positive for antibodies and 97% of these groups tested negative.

Positive results on the first test indicate the presence of COVID-19 antibodies in the blood. This means that the individual has been exposed to COVID-19 and may or may not have ever experienced symptoms.

Another 2%, although technically considered negative, were "indeterminate," showing a high-signal flash meaning they have an increased chance of converting to positive.

County Public Health received the results this morning. All of the individuals who tested positive or indeterminate were called by Public Health Officials today, advised of the results, and given direction.

Positive and borderline results are told to self-isolate and household members to quarantine for 14 days from the date of testing.

Dr. Sharon Grundy, County Medical Officer said, "These results should alert people that this virus is here. We need to take our public health directives seriously and shelter in place and practice physical distancing."

Combining the 645 first responders, healthcare providers, and their families who were tested earlier with these new results, less than 2% are positive or indeterminate and 98% are negative.

Dr. Diana Koelliker, Deputy Medical Officer said, "The course of this pandemic is very much in the hands of our community. Your behavior will steer its trajectory."


Even if this were a, "Do you have it now?" test, you should be seeing far larger numbers than 1% of our is super rampant but with a huge percentage of asymptomatic carriers. If that were the case, we'd be at a peak, "Everyone has it and now we see the outliers it effects," stage and you should be seeing something like 20-40%. With only 1% showing symptoms. That's not the case.
Snap E Tom
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Quote:

(April 1, 2020) -- San Miguel County, CO -- San Miguel County Public Health officials announced today that less than 1 percent of the COVID-19 blood tests done last Thursday and Friday were positive for antibodies and 97% of these groups tested negative.

Positive results on the first test indicate the presence of COVID-19 antibodies in the blood. This means that the individual has been exposed to COVID-19 and may or may not have ever experienced symptoms.

Another 2%, although technically considered negative, were "indeterminate," showing a high-signal flash meaning they have an increased chance of converting to positive.

County Public Health received the results this morning. All of the individuals who tested positive or indeterminate were called by Public Health Officials today, advised of the results, and given direction.

Positive and borderline results are told to self-isolate and household members to quarantine for 14 days from the date of testing.

Dr. Sharon Grundy, County Medical Officer said, "These results should alert people that this virus is here. We need to take our public health directives seriously and shelter in place and practice physical distancing."

Combining the 645 first responders, healthcare providers, and their families who were tested earlier with these new results, less than 2% are positive or indeterminate and 98% are negative.

Dr. Diana Koelliker, Deputy Medical Officer said, "The course of this pandemic is very much in the hands of our community. Your behavior will steer its trajectory."


Even if this were a, "Do you have it now?" test, you should be seeing far larger numbers than 1% of our is super rampant but with a huge percentage of asymptomatic carriers. If that were the case, we'd be at a peak, "Everyone has it and now we see the outliers it effects," stage and you should be seeing something like 20-40%. With only 1% showing symptoms. That's not the case.
Yeah, I think it's a huge sign to show where we're going to go with this.

Next 2-3 weeks control this wave. Allow the medical system to recover with supplies. Get fast testing ready to go, get HCQ/Az/Zinc packets ready to go. Start opening things back up. Get ready for the second wave. If you get symptoms, your orders are to take the test and if positive, take meds and self quarantine. Pray hot weather helps.

With these numbers, it doesn't look like we're going to get herd immunity without people actually getting it.
McInnis
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AG
I'm not sure. According to infection2020 San Miguel County had only 4 confirmed cases in a population of about 8,000. I can't see the actual number of positive results, but it says less than one percent. If we assume it's actually half a percent that would still be 21 people carrying the virus, a pretty high ratio to previously confirmed cases wouldn't it?
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