Half of people with Coronavirus have No Symptoms

5,774 Views | 29 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Gizzards
Comanche_Ag
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Quote:

About half of people who have the coronavirus show no symptoms, according to data from Iceland, the Italian town of Vo, and the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

The data from those places is of particular interest to researchers because in those places even people without symptoms were tested which is not the case in the U.S. and most countries, where desperately needed tests are reserved mostly for people who show symptoms.


Article
fightingfarmer09
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All the more reason to be doing population sampling on a daily basis to understand virus penetration into the broad population.
TXAggie2011
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One of the three studies says 33% were asymptomatic. (Iceland)
One says 46%. (Cruise ship.)
And the other says 70% were asymptomatic or "quasi-symptomatic." (Italy)

I'd like to see their definition of "quasi-symptomatic" to do a little bit more precise calibration of the body of work.
Dad-O-Lot
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what I find odd, is that at least in our county, only about 15% of the people getting tested end up testing positive. And these are people presenting with symptoms.

It would seem a bit odd if your chances of having it are higher if you're asymptomatic.
People of integrity expect to be believed, when they're not, they let time prove them right.
Player To Be Named Later
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The tests are running at least 30% false negatives from my understanding.
jopatura
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I'm not a medicine person.

But I'm wondering if COVID-19 itself is fairly mild overall similar to a cold (which also is a coronavirus if I'm not mistaken). However the ingredients that COVID-19 brings into the body or how it weakens the body makes for bad aftershocks, so to speak. Once you get really sick 8-10 days later, COVID-19 is out of your body and less traceable but the effects are still there. I bet you ran antibody tests on the severe patients that came back negative while they were sick, it would be positive. It would also explain why we are seeing a lot of "asymptomatic" people too.
Ag_of_08
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Dad-O-Lot said:

what I find odd, is that at least in our county, only about 15% of the people getting tested end up testing positive. And these are people presenting with symptoms.

It would seem a bit odd if your chances of having it are higher if you're asymptomatic.


Given that you have to be on the verge of being hospitalized in most places to actually get a test.... this is suprising?
jopatura
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TexasAggie008 said:

There's a faction that thinks the ends justify the means of presenting the worst case scenario and scaring as many people as possible into social distancing

Similar to the parent / teacher who buys into the strategy of telling kids you can die from pot ("the gateway drug"), and that having premarital relations will 99% of the time result in STDs / a kid


I didn't mean it in a way to lessen the severity of COVID-19 (even though I'm in the camp that all of this is too much). But it does seem to me that the initial few days of mild sickness is what is actually COVID-19, then what happens next is just an effect of the damage to the body, whatever it may be. If you have the right DNA/blood type that can fight off the damage better or whatever bad cells it introduces to the body (like I said not a medical person) then your experience stops at the mild symptoms.
California Ag 90
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TexasAggie008 said:

There's a faction that thinks the ends justify the means of presenting the worst case scenario and scaring as many people as possible into social distancing

Similar to the parent / teacher who buys into the strategy of telling kids you can die from pot ("the gateway drug"), and that having premarital relations will 99% of the time result in STDs / a kid
you may have seen this, but your points are spot on and captured well here.

we've become a society that believes misrepresentation or exaggeration of facts for a noble cause is somehow acceptable and has no consequences.

it is destroying what is left of social trust.

Noble Lies
We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
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Complete Idiot
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California Ag 90 said:

TexasAggie008 said:

There's a faction that thinks the ends justify the means of presenting the worst case scenario and scaring as many people as possible into social distancing

Similar to the parent / teacher who buys into the strategy of telling kids you can die from pot ("the gateway drug"), and that having premarital relations will 99% of the time result in STDs / a kid
you may have seen this, but your points are spot on and captured well here.

we've become a society that believes misrepresentation or exaggeration of facts for a noble cause is somehow acceptable and has no consequences.

it is destroying what is left of social trust.

Noble Lies
When you say, "we've become a society", who are you referring to? Humanity? Usually it refers to the country the person making the comment lives in, but since most developed countries in the world - representing various races, religions, and societal practices - have taken similar measures as the US, I am not sure who you are referring to.
TXAggie2011
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Would y'all take that **** somewhere else?
Complete Idiot
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Comanche_Ag said:

Quote:

About half of people who have the coronavirus show no symptoms, according to data from Iceland, the Italian town of Vo, and the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

The data from those places is of particular interest to researchers because in those places even people without symptoms were tested which is not the case in the U.S. and most countries, where desperately needed tests are reserved mostly for people who show symptoms.


Article

Article makes a mistake about the Diamond Princess. At time of testing, 46% were positive but asymptomatic. However, many went on to show symptoms. Overall, 18% of those positive on the Diamond Princess NEVER showed symptoms, which I think is the population the article was intended to talk about. I assume they made similar errors with the other data, or it at least puts it all in question.
California Ag 90
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We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
TXAggie2011
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Complete Idiot said:

Comanche_Ag said:

Quote:

About half of people who have the coronavirus show no symptoms, according to data from Iceland, the Italian town of Vo, and the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

The data from those places is of particular interest to researchers because in those places even people without symptoms were tested which is not the case in the U.S. and most countries, where desperately needed tests are reserved mostly for people who show symptoms.
Article
Article makes a mistake about the Diamond Princess. At time of testing, 46% were positive but asymptomatic. However, many went on to show symptoms. Overall, 18% of those positive on the Diamond Princess NEVER showed symptoms, which I think is the population the article was intended to talk about. I assume they made similar errors with the other data, or it at least puts it all in question.
See my post above regarding questions about the article.

The Iceland study showed 2/3rds of people were symptomatic. I think the article tried to even it out at ~50% by referencing the Italian study. I'm not sure that holds simply do to unknown sample sizes.

But I'll ask the question again of anyone who saw the Italian study---2/3rds were asymptomatic or "quasi-symptomatic."

What are their definitions and what was the breakdown?
Complete Idiot
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I saw what you wrote and I think you do know what I am talking about, based on the the prior post you quoted and agreed with in your reply.
TXAggie2011
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Double post
VaultingChemist
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TXAggie2011 said:

One of the three studies says 33% were asymptomatic. (Iceland)
One says 46%. (Cruise ship.)
And the other says 70% were asymptomatic or "quasi-symptomatic." (Italy)

I'd like to see their definition of "quasi-symptomatic" to do a little bit more precise calibration of the body of work.
Available statistical models of Diamond Princess outbreak suggest that 17.9% of infected persons never developed symptoms, not 46%.

Due to 4 to 5 day incubation period or longer, there should be a lot of asymptomatic positive tests if everyone is tested. That does not mean that those who were asymptomatic but tested positive will not develop symptoms, or even that some of those who tested negative will not develop symptoms.
Tx-Ag2010
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B-1 83 said:

TexasAggie008 said:

What's happening now is the equivalent of handing the keys to the most alarmist climate change talking heads and saying "literally do whatever you want, you have full unconditional support at all levels of government in the entire world ... don't worry about the financial hit, without your help millions (per your proven scientific figures) will die"
It's just the flu......
Im sure you are joking...

The Chinese don't shut down 50-100MM for the flu...
Dr.HeadCase
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jopatura said:

I'm not a medicine person.


Should have just stopped there.
Ag in tu land
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TexasAggie008 said:

Our inability to gather simple, honest data and present it to the public an unbiased way is the most disappointing thing about this

The same phenomena that makes presidential polling days completely worthless in 2020 is the same thing hurting us here

"Lies, damn lies, and statistics" has never been more true
I want to call BS but this is absolutely correct.
CT75
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Comanche_Ag said:

Quote:

About half of people who have the coronavirus show no symptoms, according to data from Iceland, the Italian town of Vo, and the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

The data from those places is of particular interest to researchers because in those places even people without symptoms were tested which is not the case in the U.S. and most countries, where desperately needed tests are reserved mostly for people who show symptoms.


Article

Does this mean that "half of the people with COVID-19 at the time of data collection show no symptoms but will eventually have symptoms" or "half of the people with COVID-19 show not symptoms and will never show symptoms" ?
dermdoc
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Dad-O-Lot said:

what I find odd, is that at least in our county, only about 15% of the people getting tested end up testing positive. And these are people presenting with symptoms.

It would seem a bit odd if your chances of having it are higher if you're asymptomatic.


I personally think it shows the tests are pretty inaccurate.
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PJYoung
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The idea that our economy would be humming along with our morgues full from covid 19 victims is the biggest lie out there.

We didnt have a choice, our economy was screwed either way.
Ragoo
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dermdoc said:

Dad-O-Lot said:

what I find odd, is that at least in our county, only about 15% of the people getting tested end up testing positive. And these are people presenting with symptoms.

It would seem a bit odd if your chances of having it are higher if you're asymptomatic.


I personally think it shows the tests are pretty inaccurate.
which is why we should be treating with HAZ at the very first sign of symptoms. At this point testing should be the least of our concern.
DadHammer
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Ragoo said:

dermdoc said:

Dad-O-Lot said:

what I find odd, is that at least in our county, only about 15% of the people getting tested end up testing positive. And these are people presenting with symptoms.

It would seem a bit odd if your chances of having it are higher if you're asymptomatic.


I personally think it shows the tests are pretty inaccurate.
which is why we should be treating with HAZ at the very first sign of symptoms. At this point testing should be the least of our concern.


Totally agree. Get the treatment in our hands. Before we get sick, so we can start at the first sign of a fever.
dude95
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California Ag 90 said:

TexasAggie008 said:

There's a faction that thinks the ends justify the means of presenting the worst case scenario and scaring as many people as possible into social distancing

Similar to the parent / teacher who buys into the strategy of telling kids you can die from pot ("the gateway drug"), and that having premarital relations will 99% of the time result in STDs / a kid
you may have seen this, but your points are spot on and captured well here.

we've become a society that believes misrepresentation or exaggeration of facts for a noble cause is somehow acceptable and has no consequences.

it is destroying what is left of social trust.

Noble Lies
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

In this case - substitute stupidity with ignorance. We simply don't know enough about this thing - how to deal with it, how it's going to progress, timelines, etc. Our global ignorance of a rapidly evolving threat that we don't have years of time to study and develop conclusions leads to tons of misinformation.

This is especially true in the current world where we demand immediate answers and social media and 247 media coverage provides access to those willing to give answers.
bay fan
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S
I think when your symptoms are considered obvious, perhaps until recently people were not being tested due to scarcity of tests and PPE. In other words, the more likely you were to have it, the less likely to be tested?
Dad-O-Lot
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bay fan said:

I think when your symptoms are considered obvious, perhaps until recently people were not being tested due to scarcity of tests and PPE. In other words, the more likely you were to have it, the less likely to be tested?
but that's not what was happening. My daughter couldn't get tested because her "only" symptoms were a cough and shortness of breath.

People of integrity expect to be believed, when they're not, they let time prove them right.
California Ag 90
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Complete Idiot said:

I saw what you wrote and I think you do know what I am talking about, based on the the prior post you quoted and agreed with in your reply.
I withdrew what I wrote as you wish to turn a discussion of the use of noble lies to justify public policy into some sort of broader argument over the merits of the entire policy. that was not the point I was making.

my society is the US. have lived and worked in Asia, Europe and the Mideast.

lies are lies, noble or not. tell enough of them and nobody believes anything.
We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
Gizzards
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jopatura said:

I'm not a medicine person.

But I'm wondering if COVID-19 itself is fairly mild overall similar to a cold (which also is a coronavirus if I'm not mistaken). However the ingredients that COVID-19 brings into the body or how it weakens the body makes for bad aftershocks, so to speak. Once you get really sick 8-10 days later, COVID-19 is out of your body and less traceable but the effects are still there. I bet you ran antibody tests on the severe patients that came back negative while they were sick, it would be positive. It would also explain why we are seeing a lot of "asymptomatic" people too.

That's not close to accurate. The symptoms are due to the virus and its effects. It does not usually leave the body as quickly as you suggest. Of course antibody tests after the fact will likely be positive, like most viruses. I'm not sure what your point really is.
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