This will go well

I'm glad you learned javascript. Next up should be statistics, then exponential growth.

Proposition Joe said:

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I'm glad you learned javascript. Next up should be statistics, then exponential growth.

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It's not exponential. It's an epidemiological curve which has a big difference from an exponential curve: It has an upper limit.

Seems more suitable for forum 16.

culdeus said:

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Seems more suitable for forum 16.

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Is this the forum where only the people who believe this is the apocalypse can post?

TexAgs91 said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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I'm glad you learned javascript. Next up should be statistics, then exponential growth.

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It's not exponential. It's an epidemiological curve which has a big difference from an exponential curve: It has an upper limit.

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Burn!

I think there is a valuable discussion to be had as far as what the right balance is - we can't simply shut down everything forever and I acknowledge that.

With that said, I think any "insights" that use current numbers as a justification to open up some areas "because they're less impacted right now" are missing the entire point....we're dealing with something that that has EXTREMELY long asymptomatic phases, even when it does become eventually become symptomatic and we're in an environment with very little test coverage or data to indicate what the "real" picture is.....

So when you try and imply that we're going overboard (i.e. "cowering in their homes") because the infection numbers, in your mind, don't support those measures - I think infectious disease experts would point out that if you wait for those numbers to justify the actions (i.e. take a reactive approach), you're going to see a lot more explosions around the country.

Ok, you are Trump. What would you have done differently?

Blaine County in Idaho.

• Over the weekend of March 6, a group of skiers are believed to have contracted the deadly virus while visiting a resort in Sun Valley in the county
• Out of the nearly 700 members of the group who attended the festivities, more than 120 developed COVID-19 symptoms and eight needed hospitalization

SirLurksALot said:

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culdeus said:

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Seems more suitable for forum 16.

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Is this the forum where only the people who believe this is the apocalypse can post?

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It's the forum where echo chamber questions will be more receptive.

It's not hard to look at someone's post history and find it quite clear when they are actually wanting a legitimate discussion on the subject or when they want affirmation on what they already believe.

And when the population infected is much less than that upper limit, and there is no immunity, the growth is approximated as an exponential. That .01% becomes 1% in just a few weeks without interventions aka shutdown.

Proposition Joe said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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culdeus said:

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Seems more suitable for forum 16.

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Is this the forum where only the people who believe this is the apocalypse can post?

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It's the forum where echo chamber questions will be more receptive.

It's not hard to look at someone's post history and find it quite clear when they are actually wanting a legitimate discussion on the subject or when they want affirmation on what they already believe.

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Seems like some want this forum to be an echo chamber as well just with a different prospective.

Discussion about what methods are appropriate to handle this crisis is legitimate not overtly political.

aginlakeway said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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HouAggie2007 said:

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Ok, you are Trump. What would you have done differently?

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Do everything that's been done up till now, except the shelter in place orders. Keep the restaurants, bars, and non-essential businesses open. Have the local safety or health inspectors limit the occupancy and mandate a minimum of 6 feet between parties at bars and restaurants. Of course the President can only make these recommendations. If Mayors or Governors want to go overboard there's not much he can do.

Also probably should've started preparing earlier.

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How so?

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Hindsight is always 2020, but if we stated ramping up production of PPE, tests, and increasing hospital capacity in January or February we'd probably be a better situation today.

Quote:

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To be clear: This is not a place to post your opinion as fact or to post information not rooted in clear facts. This is not a place to have political arguments or to detail your opinions about how well or poorly the government is handling the issue. This is not a place to rant about media conspiracies. This is not a place to critique other people for their level of concern or efforts to prepare. There are forums for (some of) those conversations, but they don't belong here.

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We aren't really shut down In Texas. But, we're about to be as the casualties doubling every 3.5 days. We'll reach a tipping point for Abbott.

This is not the time to argue that we shouldn't shut down. This is the time to find a side hustle.

SirLurksALot said:

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HouAggie2007 said:

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Ok, you are Trump. What would you have done differently?

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Do everything that's been done up till now, except the shelter in place orders. Keep the restaurants, bars, and non-essential businesses open. Have the local safety or health inspectors limit the occupancy and mandate a minimum of 6 feet between parties at bars and restaurants. Of course the President can only make these recommendations. If Mayors or Governors want to go overboard there's not much he can do.

Also probably should've started preparing earlier.

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We didn't go directly from first infections to shelter-in-place.

Most places went from 250 to 100 to 50% of capcaity to 50, etc...

A combination of the data showing stricter measures were needed, and the population as a whole not really adhering to the measures that were already in place brought us to where we are at now.

So do you just believe the data they were working with was wrong? The heads of the CDC and top medical professionals? Do you think a President who is pro-economy more than any we've ever had in our history was just so easily swayed to shut things down?

I might understand a lot of this if you had medical professionals on one side saying this and Trump on the other side saying we're not going to do that... But if President Trump -- who had to be one of the toughest to convince this is worth shutting down the economy for -- decided to shutdown the economy, then maybe just maybe the top medical minds in the world aren't wrong?

Likewise it's also willfully ignorant to assume the greatest economic minds in the world weren't listened to when making these decisions.

I mean, I'd get it if we had some kumbaya tree-hugging hippy as President that maybe shutting down the economy was made without enough thought given to the economy. But when a guy like Donald Trump decides to shut down the economy how is that not a big flashing sign to those who say "it's too much!" that they don't really understand what's at stake?

TexAgs91 said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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I'm glad you learned javascript. Next up should be statistics, then exponential growth.

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It's not exponential. It's an epidemiological curve which has a big difference from an exponential curve: It has an upper limit.

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While prop joes post was in jest there is a serious part of it and you actually hit on it in the very end of your rebuttal. That epidemiological curve starts out exponential until it transitions. It makes that transition when it starts to hit barriers to exponential growth. Those barriers come in the form of either a shrinking pool of people left who can be infected or limited population movement. This is where the problem lies with looking at infections as a percent of population. We are still pretty early in the spread across most of the country and because of how the early exponential growth works, you would expect to see similar growth whether you are in a city of 500k or 10MM. 1 case becomes 3 becomes 9 etc. it's not until the smaller community starts to reach a breakover point in their curve due to the population that you will see separation in those curves. So it's really not until the later stage of an epidemic that percent of population infected becomes a useful measure. At early stages it does silly things like make it look like a small county in Idaho has it worse than NYC where we know hospitals have gotten nearer to a breaking point than anyone should be comfortable with.

Proposition Joe said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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HouAggie2007 said:

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Ok, you are Trump. What would you have done differently?

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Do everything that's been done up till now, except the shelter in place orders. Keep the restaurants, bars, and non-essential businesses open. Have the local safety or health inspectors limit the occupancy and mandate a minimum of 6 feet between parties at bars and restaurants. Of course the President can only make these recommendations. If Mayors or Governors want to go overboard there's not much he can do.

Also probably should've started preparing earlier.

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We didn't go directly from first infections to shelter-in-place.

Most places went from 250 to 100 to 50% of capcaity to 50, etc...

A combination of the data showing stricter measures were needed, and the population as a whole not really adhering to the measures that were already in place brought us to where we are at now.

So do you just believe the data they were working with was wrong? The heads of the CDC and top medical professionals? Do you think a President who is pro-economy more than any we've ever had in our history was just so easily swayed to shut things down?

I might understand a lot of this if you had medical professionals on one side saying this and Trump on the other side saying we're not going to do that... But if President Trump -- who had to be one of the toughest to convince this is worth shutting down the economy for -- decided to shutdown the economy, then maybe just maybe the top medical minds in the world aren't wrong?

Likewise it's also willfully ignorant to assume the greatest economic minds in the world weren't listened to when making these decisions.

I mean, I'd get it if we had some kumbaya tree-hugging hippy as President that maybe shutting down the economy was made without enough thought given to the economy. But when a guy like Donald Trump decides to shut down the economy how is that not a big flashing sign to those who say "it's too much!" that they don't really understand what's at stake?

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Yep. It's amazing that TexAgs posters think they know more than Trump.

If Trump shut down the economy, it's because he believed that he HAD to.

Proposition Joe said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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HouAggie2007 said:

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Ok, you are Trump. What would you have done differently?

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Do everything that's been done up till now, except the shelter in place orders. Keep the restaurants, bars, and non-essential businesses open. Have the local safety or health inspectors limit the occupancy and mandate a minimum of 6 feet between parties at bars and restaurants. Of course the President can only make these recommendations. If Mayors or Governors want to go overboard there's not much he can do.

Also probably should've started preparing earlier.

---

We didn't go directly from first infections to shelter-in-place.

Most places went from 250 to 100 to 50% of capcaity to 50, etc...

A combination of the data showing stricter measures were needed, and the population as a whole not really adhering to the measures that were already in place brought us to where we are at now.

So do you just believe the data they were working with was wrong? The heads of the CDC and top medical professionals? Do you think a President who is pro-economy more than any we've ever had in our history was just so easily swayed to shut things down?

I might understand a lot of this if you had medical professionals on one side saying this and Trump on the other side saying we're not going to do that... But if President Trump -- who had to be one of the toughest to convince this is worth shutting down the economy for -- decided to shutdown the economy, then maybe just maybe the top medical minds in the world aren't wrong?

Likewise it's also willfully ignorant to assume the greatest economic minds in the world weren't listened to when making these decisions.

I mean, I'd get it if we had some kumbaya tree-hugging hippy as President that maybe shutting down the economy was made without enough thought given to the economy. But when a guy like Donald Trump decides to shut down the economy how is that not a big flashing sign to those who say "it's too much!" that they don't really understand what's at stake?

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Trump and the Federal government aren't the ones making shelter in place orders. He has been asked to do that repeatedly, but has left it to the Governors to decide. The shelter in place orders have been made by local officials. The Feds put out the social distancing guidelines, which don't recommend shelter in place.

Only time will tell what was the best approach as there are multiple countries that aren't sheltering in place and shutting down businesses.

SirLurksALot said:

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aginlakeway said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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HouAggie2007 said:

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Ok, you are Trump. What would you have done differently?

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Do everything that's been done up till now, except the shelter in place orders. Keep the restaurants, bars, and non-essential businesses open. Have the local safety or health inspectors limit the occupancy and mandate a minimum of 6 feet between parties at bars and restaurants. Of course the President can only make these recommendations. If Mayors or Governors want to go overboard there's not much he can do.

Also probably should've started preparing earlier.

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How so?

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Hindsight is always 2020, but if we stated ramping up production of PPE, tests, and increasing hospital capacity in January or February we'd probably be a better situation today.

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Hindsight is 20/20 indeed. Saying, "We should have seen x coming," is hindsight bias. In January and February, this looked like another swine flu or SARS to most people, and those came and went without great incident. This is a black swan, and no one really sees them coming. Saying we should have seen it and should have done x,y,z is not really fair.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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aginlakeway said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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HouAggie2007 said:

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Ok, you are Trump. What would you have done differently?

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Do everything that's been done up till now, except the shelter in place orders. Keep the restaurants, bars, and non-essential businesses open. Have the local safety or health inspectors limit the occupancy and mandate a minimum of 6 feet between parties at bars and restaurants. Of course the President can only make these recommendations. If Mayors or Governors want to go overboard there's not much he can do.

Also probably should've started preparing earlier.

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How so?

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Hindsight is always 2020, but if we stated ramping up production of PPE, tests, and increasing hospital capacity in January or February we'd probably be a better situation today.

---

Hindsight is 20/20 indeed. Saying, "We should have seen x coming," is hindsight bias. In January and February, this looked like another swine flu or SARS to most people, and those came and went without great incident. This is a black swan, and no one really sees them coming. Saying we should have seen it and should have done x,y,z is not really fair.

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I disagree. Public health experts called this out back then. Our society is hell-bent to not let things inconvenience our lifestyle. That's the real problem.

deadbq03 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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aginlakeway said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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HouAggie2007 said:

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Ok, you are Trump. What would you have done differently?

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Do everything that's been done up till now, except the shelter in place orders. Keep the restaurants, bars, and non-essential businesses open. Have the local safety or health inspectors limit the occupancy and mandate a minimum of 6 feet between parties at bars and restaurants. Of course the President can only make these recommendations. If Mayors or Governors want to go overboard there's not much he can do.

Also probably should've started preparing earlier.

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How so?

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Hindsight is always 2020, but if we stated ramping up production of PPE, tests, and increasing hospital capacity in January or February we'd probably be a better situation today.

---

Hindsight is 20/20 indeed. Saying, "We should have seen x coming," is hindsight bias. In January and February, this looked like another swine flu or SARS to most people, and those came and went without great incident. This is a black swan, and no one really sees them coming. Saying we should have seen it and should have done x,y,z is not really fair.

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I disagree. Public health experts called this out back then. Our society is hell-bent to not let things inconvenience our lifestyle. That's the real problem.

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This.

You had people about to go nuts 7 days into this with every technological activity at their fingertips.

We would have been better off telling people "absolutely positively do not binge watch Netflix for a week".

ABATTBQ11 said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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aginlakeway said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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HouAggie2007 said:

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Ok, you are Trump. What would you have done differently?

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Do everything that's been done up till now, except the shelter in place orders. Keep the restaurants, bars, and non-essential businesses open. Have the local safety or health inspectors limit the occupancy and mandate a minimum of 6 feet between parties at bars and restaurants. Of course the President can only make these recommendations. If Mayors or Governors want to go overboard there's not much he can do.

Also probably should've started preparing earlier.

---

How so?

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Hindsight is always 2020, but if we stated ramping up production of PPE, tests, and increasing hospital capacity in January or February we'd probably be a better situation today.

---

Hindsight is 20/20 indeed. Saying, "We should have seen x coming," is hindsight bias. In January and February, this looked like another swine flu or SARS to most people, and those came and went without great incident. This is a black swan, and no one really sees them coming. Saying we should have seen it and should have done x,y,z is not really fair.

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China locked down 150 MILLION of their citizens because of this. Anybody paying attention knew it wasn't SARS or H1N1. I will never understand the people that just ignored those extreme measures, stuff we have never seen in our lifetime and just believed that it couldn't be that bad here because, America.