ol'Porkbelly said:
Texas is still lagging far behind other states in testing, unfortunately. As of a couple days ago we were only ahead of Mississippi and Oklahoma in testing per capita I believe.
This is undoubtedly true. So all we have are the numbers that are being reported, with the understanding that they are wildly inaccurate in predicting the total number of actual cases. However, there are a few assumptions that can be made.
1. The reported cases are people who have tested positive, ostensibly because a doctor directed the test to be performed.
2. According to the general numbers that have been repeated multiple times in multiple regions and multiple countries, roughly 80% of patients who test positive do not require hospitalization. Roughly 20% do require hospital stay, with 5% of those requiring ICU.
So, getting back to the Houston area, since the information there seems much more complete than Austin, total cases reported in Houston as of yesterday is 1145. Of those 1145, it has been reported that
roughly 272 of those cases are from mid March, meaning that those cases should either be discharged from the hospital by now, or deceased.
With that in mind, the total cases that are possibly still actively receiving hospital care amounts to roughly 873 as of yesterday. Adding in the remaining cases from greater Harris county brings the total to 1537. The number of hospitalized patients who have since recovered is unknowable at this time, so I'll assume worst case scenario of 1537.
Using the previously established percentages, that equates to 307 patients requiring hospital care, of which 77 patients that require ICU treatment.
Again, there are 1489 ICU beds in Houston and 6621 general care beds. I have no idea how these beds are allocated or what the non-COVID inpatient population is. Nor do I know how COVID patients are routed, or if there are preferred hospitals for intake, leaving other facilities less crowded. Just seems to me that, even using worst case scenario numbers, Houston should have ample medical inventory to absorb the patient load.
It's also worth noting that the regional counties that I included in my previous post have a combined hospital capacity of 532 ICU beds and 3322 general care beds, so it seems unlikely that patients from those areas are being transported to Houston for hospital care, with Galveston as the possible exception, as those facilities have an abundance of head space. If anything, it would make sense if it were the other way around if Houston were truly experiencing a capacity crisis.
Again, just seems to me that there is a decent likelihood that capacity is not a problem at the moment. Here's hoping it stays that way.
