German Study re: Superspreading Events

2,881 Views | 18 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by cone
cone
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AG
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/the-cluster-effect-how-social-gatherings-were-rocket-fuel-for-coronavirus

Quote:

Each of the countries most heavily hit by the pandemic has reported similar stories of social, cultural or religious gatherings where large numbers spent numerous hours in close company holding hands, kissing, sharing drinks from the same glass which then turbo-charged the spread of the pandemic.

"One pattern we are seeing across the globe is that wherever there was singing and dancing, the virus spread more rapidly," said Prof Hendrik Streeck, a virologist at the University of Bonn whose team of researchers has spent the last week carrying out the first "Covid-19 case cluster study" in Heinsberg.
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"Most infections didn't take place in supermarkets or restaurants," Streeck said of his preliminary findings. In Heinsberg, his team of coronavirus detectives could find scant evidence of the virus being transmitted via the surfaces of door handles, smart phones or other objects.

Early theories that the virus at the carnival party in Gangelt could have been transmitted through the dishwater in the kitchen turned out to be a red herring: most guests drank their beer from bottles.

Instead, he said, transmission took place at "events where people spent a length of time in each others' close company", such as apres ski parties in the Austrian resort of Ischgl, the Trompete nightclub in Berlin and a football match in northern Italy.

"Mass events are a perfect opportunity for the virus, as people meet total strangers," said Niki Popper, a mathematician at Vienna's Technical University whose team has been developing a simulation that could help governments predict the development of the pandemic more accurately.
BowSowy
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Yeah, I think it's going to be a while until we start to see mass public gatherings (sporting events, concerts, etc) open back up, unfortunately
Aust Ag
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It makes sense. You think about if you're at a club, bar, etc. You have to raise your voice, you possibly start talking "sloppy" (spittle coming out). That crap coming out all over, you become less inclined to cover your mouth if you cough...I could go on and on. Sporting events, concerts, lots of yelling and projecting your breath further.

Damn.
CT75
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Aust Ag said:

It makes sense. You think about if you're at a club, bar, etc. You have to raise your voice, you possibly start talking "sloppy" (spittle coming out). That crap coming out all over, you become less inclined to cover your mouth if you cough...I could go on and on. Sporting events, concerts, lots of yelling and projecting your breath further.

Damn.
Agree ....think about Midnight Yell
cone
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the good news is that if it's harder to spread in non-intimate "non-verbal" settings, then it's easier to get back to some semblance of economic activity

we just can't have fun together for a while

still don't know what this means for schools
BlackGoldAg2011
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cone said:

"One pattern we are seeing across the globe is that wherever there was singing and dancing, the virus spread more rapidly,"

Who knew the old school Baptists were right!?
Fenrir
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cone said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/the-cluster-effect-how-social-gatherings-were-rocket-fuel-for-coronavirus

Quote:

Each of the countries most heavily hit by the pandemic has reported similar stories of social, cultural or religious gatherings where large numbers spent numerous hours in close company holding hands, kissing, sharing drinks from the same glass which then turbo-charged the spread of the pandemic.

"One pattern we are seeing across the globe is that wherever there was singing and dancing, the virus spread more rapidly," said Prof Hendrik Streeck, a virologist at the University of Bonn whose team of researchers has spent the last week carrying out the first "Covid-19 case cluster study" in Heinsberg.
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"Most infections didn't take place in supermarkets or restaurants," Streeck said of his preliminary findings. In Heinsberg, his team of coronavirus detectives could find scant evidence of the virus being transmitted via the surfaces of door handles, smart phones or other objects.

Early theories that the virus at the carnival party in Gangelt could have been transmitted through the dishwater in the kitchen turned out to be a red herring: most guests drank their beer from bottles.

Instead, he said, transmission took place at "events where people spent a length of time in each others' close company", such as apres ski parties in the Austrian resort of Ischgl, the Trompete nightclub in Berlin and a football match in northern Italy.

"Mass events are a perfect opportunity for the virus, as people meet total strangers," said Niki Popper, a mathematician at Vienna's Technical University whose team has been developing a simulation that could help governments predict the development of the pandemic more accurately.

Has this reality turned into some weird, dark sequel to Footloose?
Windy City Ag
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The Mt. Vernon Presbyterian Choir is a really sad example.

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-infiltrated-mt-vernon-choir-killing-2-members-and-infecting-others

47 out of the 60 in attendance contracted the disease with two dying. The impact, as always, was incredibly random.

Quote:

Carolynn Comstock, co-president, said for weeks the board was emailing members encouraging them to stay home from rehearsal if they showed any signs of sickness. Comstock said on March 10, roughly 60 of the 120 members showed up.


In light of the coronavirus outbreak, Comstock said they greeted each singer with hand sanitizer at the door, they were individually spaced out during rehearsal, each singer used their own sheet music, and they avoided shaking hands or hugging. And yet, within a week, three-quarters of the choir would report feeling sick.

Quote:

"This virus looks different on everyone," Comstock said. "Some people had a fever, some people didn't, some people had a cough, some people didn't. Some people only had that loss of sense of smell and taste."

On Monday, both Comstock and Owen said they are recovering with very few lingering symptoms.



Aggie95
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Except, you know, the largest movement and gathering of humans every year....Chinese New Year. The outbreak happened during Chinese New Year, yet China has fewer deaths and cases than NYC. *cough bs cough*
GAC06
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That study is encouraging as far as getting most people back to work
Sq 17
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really not expectinng school to start , that study makes it even more unlikely
H.E. Pennypacker
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BlackGoldAg2011 said:

cone said:

"One pattern we are seeing across the globe is that wherever there was singing and dancing, the virus spread more rapidly,"

Who knew the old school Baptists were right!?


Everyone who's ever danced with an attractive person
MasterAggie
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Quote:

still don't know what this means for schools
Means we are done for the year. Schools would be overrun with corona in no time.
UTExan
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BlackGoldAg2011 said:

cone said:

"One pattern we are seeing across the globe is that wherever there was singing and dancing, the virus spread more rapidly,"

Who knew the old school Baptists were right!?


With the exception of the foot washing, yes.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
cone
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I'm curious how they open up in the fall. I don't see how.
Aust Ag
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cone said:

I'm curious how they open up in the fall. I don't see how.
Lots of distancing. Lots of testing. They'll figure it out somehow, maybe an "Odd/Even" schedule somehow, school half full every day, with longer time at school. They've got time.
MasterAggie
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I'm curious too. Hopefully it has run its course before then.
cone
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there's zero chance that this things runs its course in the next four months
MasterAggie
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It's not probable but the chances are certainly higher than zero.
cone
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going from 3% of the population infected to >35% (on the low end) in four months without an overrun?
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