267 covid related deaths in Texas in 2020 of our 56,687 total deaths this year

We never had a massive outbreak. Our medical resources weren't over run. People are aware of covid and distancing when they are in public. Some are wearing masks.

I guess Texas has done a good job and also been lucky.

A vaccine isn't guaranteed anytime soon. What is next? We can't do this forever.

We are about 2 weeks behind New York. We are doing a great job, but let's not celebrate yet.

Still, I think at this point, CONSERVATIVELY, we will slowly start opening things up starting mid may.

Dallas County has just completed 3 weeks of a stay at home order. I believe Harris County is one day behind that.

Logic tells me that we aren't two weeks behind New York as we have been shut down unless somehow the virus is transmitted thru the tv or internet.

Texas is not the same as NY
We are geographically social distanced
Don't compare the state... compare NYC to Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth and San Antonio

When I saw we are 2 weeks behind, I don't mean we are going to become New York in two weeks. All the experts are saying that New York is peaking this week and Texas is peaking around April 20th or so. Just because of when the disease spread here.

All in all it's a good thing, bc we had more time to social distance and to gear up to treat cases.

Pretty sure we have one of the lowest per capita rates of testing too so we don't have a near accurate count of how many have the virus

We were never going to be anything close to New York. NYC metro area population is 21 million, whereas Houston is only 7 million. The square mileage of the two metro areas is roughly comparable as well, so they've got a population density 3 times higher than the largest city in Texas, and everyone in the urban area takes public transportation everywhere.

Given that the Hydroxychloroquine and Zinc combination is showing such strong results, it would behoove us to start opening up again gradually so we can build up some natural immunity and get to work reversing this massive recession.

I have thought all along Houston would get it sooner than NYC. The models used may have seemed to infer that Houston was behind but maybe the number look less because Houston had a head start through Houston. I would say this for San Francisco, CA as well.

Both San Francisco and Houston enjoy daily flights from Home base to many destination cities. (Japan, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan).

I think it is highly plausible that there was a first wave at some point between End of October to mid January. Chen-Na (adopting my Vietnamese friends slur of chinese) has said end of Nov is when they think the Kung flu was active. Taking in to account they are either lying or don't know. Possibly there is a earlier window for the first wave to occur.

Luckily I do not know of anyone personally who has the CV19. But I do know a half dozen or more that had a unknown flu (Dec to Jan) that was really harsh and came back negative. My wife was one.

I can't wait for the antibodies test......that will be great to see the dispersion of folks who have antibodies.

Stmichael said:

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We were never going to be anything close to New York. NYC metro area population is 21 million, whereas Houston is only 7 million. The square mileage of the two metro areas is roughly comparable as well, so they've got a population density 3 times higher than the largest city in Texas, and everyone in the urban area takes public transportation everywhere.

Given that the Hydroxychloroquine and Zinc combination is showing such strong results, it would behoove us to start opening up again gradually so we can build up some natural immunity and get to work reversing this massive recession.

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Good Post.

San Antonio is nowhere near New York by comparison , no trains, very few use mass transit, very spread out, love drive thrus. IMHO

The Fall Guy said:

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Hearing from an APD officer that the virus is high in the homeless pop in Austin.

Travis County is still rising steadily

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Travis had 79 new cases on 4/3 and has had no more than 54 in one day since. In fact there were only 18 new cases on 4/6.

I would say they are flattening the curve quite well. Hospitals are not full and are prepared, and with three major hospital systems in the area I would say they are very prepared and capable.

I can't really speak to infection rates in the homeless.

Dad-O-Lot said:

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Caleb12 said:

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When I saw we are 2 weeks behind, I don't mean we are going to become New York in two weeks. All the experts are saying that New York is peaking this week and Texas is peaking around April 20th or so. Just because of when the disease spread here.

All in all it's a good thing, bc we had more time to social distance and to gear up to treat cases.

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I think Texas started "social distancing" about the same time, or possibly earlier than New York.

If the "flatten the curve" graphs are accurate, then the better you practice social distancing, the further out you end up having the peak, but the peak is lower.

Texas being "2 weeks behind" New York in when we reach our "peak", I would consider to be just a function of better "social distancing" protocols; which only makes sense based on the much lower population density in Texas.

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Social Distancing is just a theory that had never been tried before. It was originally designed not to overwhelm hospitals. Well that did not happen because the vast majority of infections do not need hospitalization. Social distancing has no affect on the curve. If you look at infection rates with countries that used it and the ones that did not are all peaking in April.

New York and New Jersey's reliance on public transportation is the main reason for their high numbers. The subway system undoubtedly spread the virus efficiently and effectively over all NYC and outlying areas well before social distancing started.

thelaw4 said:

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Pretty sure we have one of the lowest per capita rates of testing too so we don't have a near accurate count of how many have the virus

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Isn't that a good thing....if less people are sick...then you need to test less people.

It's more dense than that.

NYC's average density is at least TEN TIMES that of Houston in every burrough except Staten Island, which is only a paltry six times as dense.

In Manhattan it is TWENTY TIMES that of Houston. (70k vs 3.5k per square mile)

Then there is the matter of mass transit, as others have said.

Anyone claiming Texas is "x days" or "y weeks" behind New York is ignoring major fundamental differences in how life is structured.

all those really smart people decrying urban sprawl and lack of public transit in Houston will never admit that it allow for a better life style than high density living. And they sure as he'll won't admit it creates a healthy buffer for pandemics.

Imo, Texas should be putting a full court press on getting the antibody testing done universally . Anyone with the antibody, get back to your normal life asap.

Right here. High fever and cough at the end of February. Tested negative for flu. I haven't run a high fever in at least five years, was very odd.

Caleb12 said:

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We are about 2 weeks behind New York. We are doing a great job, but let's not celebrate yet.

Still, I think at this point, CONSERVATIVELY, we will slowly start opening things up starting mid may.

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So, did we ever get to New York numbers two weeks later?

mazag08 said:

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Caleb12 said:

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We are about 2 weeks behind New York. We are doing a great job, but let's not celebrate yet.

Still, I think at this point, CONSERVATIVELY, we will slowly start opening things up starting mid may.

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So, did we ever get to New York numbers two weeks later?

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While you are trying a fun "gotcha", you may want to look at Caleb's very next post in this very thread. He's more right than wrong, except the peak so far has come a little later than expected actually.

mazag08 said:

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Caleb12 said:

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We are about 2 weeks behind New York. We are doing a great job, but let's not celebrate yet.

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So, did we ever get to New York numbers two weeks later?

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'Two weeks behind New York" does not mean Texas will have the same numbers, it means Texas' curve will relatively look like New York's, just shifted two weeks later.

In the last 3 days, Texas has had 2 of its 3 highest days as far as confirmed positive cases.

I don't have the percentage of positive test data in front of me, but maybe there is something to that.

TheAngelFlight said:

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mazag08 said:

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Caleb12 said:

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We are about 2 weeks behind New York. We are doing a great job, but let's not celebrate yet.

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So, did we ever get to New York numbers two weeks later?

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'Two weeks behind New York" does not mean Texas will have the same numbers, it means Texas' curve will relatively look like New York's, just shifted two weeks later.

In the last 3 days, Texas has had 2 of its 3 highest days as far as confirmed positive cases.

I don't have the percentage of positive test data in front of me, but maybe there is something to that.

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Cases have always been tied to amount of testing being done.

And in no way, shape, or form, can you compare Texas to New York. I don't care what curve or graph you want to use.

Saying Texas is like New York because our curve has the same shape, despite being laughably lower in all categories is like saying Texas is like New York because we also have pizza restaurants.

The only point being made by "two weeks behind New York" is that Texas was not at its peak. Everyone understands, or should understand, Caleb wasn't predicting Houston was going to start losing 750+ lives a day by the end of April.

The rest of the meaning assigned to that statement is at least partially fueled want of a fight. Caleb even clarified what he meant, I don't see the need to approach that statement with continued hostility.

Proposition Joe said:

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mazag08 said:

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Caleb12 said:

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We are about 2 weeks behind New York. We are doing a great job, but let's not celebrate yet.

Still, I think at this point, CONSERVATIVELY, we will slowly start opening things up starting mid may.

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So, did we ever get to New York numbers two weeks later?

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You just bumped a 3 week old thread for a "gotcha!".

Grow up.

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you are going to see a lot of this...

I mean, yesterday set a new high for covid deaths in the state, so maybe these victory laps are a bit unwarranted.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/30/coronavirus-updates-texas/

Quote:

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Abbott spokesman John Wittman told The Associated Press that the rise in positive tests is due to the state's increased testing efforts and that the rate of positive tests has fallen from 10 percent to 7 percent in recent weeks.

"As Texas ramps up its testing, there will be more positive cases," Wittman said. "The hospitalization rate has remained steady and the fact remains Texas has one of the lowest death rates per capita in the country, showing the success of our efforts."

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https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/495610-texas-coronavirus-deaths-hit-one-day-high-ahead-of-reopening

We were never going to be New York.

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