Can anyone understand how the models show an abrupt end to any new deaths starting the first of June?
The model below is one that had shown about 200,000 deaths until a couple of weeks ago when it was modified to show about 60,000. I think it might be the one Dr. Brix used in that press conference. Even since it was modified it has usually slightly overestimated new deaths. But it does show zero by the first week of June.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Surely no one can think by the first of June that the entire population will have immunity - do they? And I've not read anyone say they know for sure how this will be affected by hot weather. I hope this doesn't start another round of model bashing. Just curious as to what the theory is.

Oh thank you, I did not notice the site had an FAQ section. Makes sense now, although you think they might put that disclaimer on the charts.

Slacker, I have a hard time believing only 3% will have been infected by then. Wouldn't you think it would be way higher than 3%?

Depends on how many unconfirmed cases are out there. I don't believe some that think most of the country has already got this, but what's the true number? Until we test we have no idea.

This model makes zero attempt to predict what happens going forward. In reality I don't think there will be a clear delineation in all areas between the two waves. You will see separate peaks but where one ends and the other begins will be unclear.