What are the statistics and how have they changed?what knowledge has been gained, and is this thing worse, about as expected, or milder than what was known 3-4 weeks ago when panic started and governments issued stay at home orders.

What are US experts updating for contagion factor, fatality rate, hospitalization rate, etc. It seems likely that drug therapy should be driving all those down so what about a projected fatality rate with such measures factored in.

Any input from doctors or nurses etc would be helpful.
If the average American is going to be confident enough to leave his house and go to work and play, the numbers will be important.

Roughly 4 weeks ago the California governor stated that he believed 1 Million Californians would die of Covid-19. Today, California is at 681 deaths.

Catag94 said:

---

Roughly 4 weeks ago the California governor stated that he believed 1 Million Californians would die of Covid-19. Today, California is at 681 deaths.

---

Where is the media on this? So. Much. Journalisming.

FCBlitz said:

---

All I can say is. Listening to doctors I believe that there is still much to learn I can't wait to see what we learn in the next two.

---

Listening to doctors, it's clear they should stick to being doctors and not statisticians, prognosticators, or deciding how and when things get opened up.

I believe we have learned a one size fits all solution for a country the size of the U.S. is a bad choice. Fully understand needing to stop urbanites from cramming together like cattle daily, but the entirety of rural America has more social distance in a normal day than any government action can create in an urban area. No reason for them to be shutdown.

Catag94 said:

---

Roughly 4 weeks ago the California governor stated that he believed 1 Million Californians would die of Covid-19. Today, California is at 681 deaths.

---

The only quote I can find stated he gave a worse case scenario of 25.5 million will catch the virus, but doesn't say a death toll. Could you share that?

Catag94 said:

---

Roughly 4 weeks ago the California governor stated that he believed 1 Million Californians would die of Covid-19. Today, California is at 681 deaths.

---

Can you provide links to the California governor saying this, which would also be helpful in providing some context?

lda6339 said:

---

Catag94 said:

---

Roughly 4 weeks ago the California governor stated that he believed 1 Million Californians would die of Covid-19. Today, California is at 681 deaths.

---

Where is the media on this? So. Much. Journalisming.

---

A better question is, "Where is the source on this?" because I looked and couldn't find anything on him saying that. The most I could find were predictions on what would happen if no action were taken.

wxguy95 said:

---

Catag94 said:

---

Roughly 4 weeks ago the California governor stated that he believed 1 Million Californians would die of Covid-19. Today, California is at 681 deaths.

---

The only quote I can find stated he gave a worse case scenario of 25.5 million will catch the virus, but doesn't say a death toll. Could you share that?

---

Perhaps my recollection is misinformed, however, the real point I was making is how Newsom (not the only one) predicted some outrageous stats with extremely little data. In his letter to the POTUS, he said, "We project that roughly 56% of our (California) population - 25.5 million people- will become infected with the virus over an eight week period. That letter was dated 3/18. At the end of 3/18, California had 851 total cases and 16 deaths. So, even misinformed, that could be argued to calculate to a total nearly half a million deaths if his projection were accurate.

Today California is showing 23,280 cases and 768 deaths. Today ends the fourth week since he wrote the letter and needless to say, his projection of 25.5 million cases has proven to be off the charts absurd.
My apologies for misquoting him before.
The point I intended still stands.

Catag94 said:

---

wxguy95 said:

---

Catag94 said:

---

Roughly 4 weeks ago the California governor stated that he believed 1 Million Californians would die of Covid-19. Today, California is at 681 deaths.

---

The only quote I can find stated he gave a worse case scenario of 25.5 million will catch the virus, but doesn't say a death toll. Could you share that?

---

Perhaps my recollection is misinformed, however, the real point I was making is how Newsom (not the only one) predicted some outrageous stats with extremely little data. In his letter to the POTUS, he said, "We project that roughly 56% of our (California) population - 25.5 million people- will become infected with the virus over an eight week period. That letter was dated 3/18. At the end of 3/18, California had 851 total cases and 16 deaths. So, even misinformed, that could be argued to calculate to a total nearly half a million deaths if his projection were accurate.

Today California is showing 23,280 cases and 768 deaths. Today ends the fourth week since he wrote the letter and needless to say, his projection of 25.5 million cases has proven to be off the charts absurd.
My apologies for misquoting him before.
The point I intended still stands.

---

Yeah, it really couldn't.

There's a difference between your "recollection is misinformed" and "just made it up".

Quote:

---

Newsom said about 56% of the state's population of nearly 40 million would contract the virus, according to data analyzed by his office. He added about 19,543 people would have to be hospitalized under that assumption, well beyond the existing surge capacity of California's system, which includes about 10,000 beds across 416 hospitals.

---

If your fuel gauge says you have 20 miles till empty and you fill up and go 23 miles you obviously did not need any fuel to begin with

fig96 said:

---

Catag94 said:

---

wxguy95 said:

---

Catag94 said:

---

Roughly 4 weeks ago the California governor stated that he believed 1 Million Californians would die of Covid-19. Today, California is at 681 deaths.

---

The only quote I can find stated he gave a worse case scenario of 25.5 million will catch the virus, but doesn't say a death toll. Could you share that?

---

Perhaps my recollection is misinformed, however, the real point I was making is how Newsom (not the only one) predicted some outrageous stats with extremely little data. In his letter to the POTUS, he said, "We project that roughly 56% of our (California) population - 25.5 million people- will become infected with the virus over an eight week period. That letter was dated 3/18. At the end of 3/18, California had 851 total cases and 16 deaths. So, even misinformed, that could be argued to calculate to a total nearly half a million deaths if his projection were accurate.

Today California is showing 23,280 cases and 768 deaths. Today ends the fourth week since he wrote the letter and needless to say, his projection of 25.5 million cases has proven to be off the charts absurd.
My apologies for misquoting him before.
The point I intended still stands.

---

Yeah, it really couldn't.

There's a difference between your "recollection is misinformed" and "just made it up".

Quote:

---

Newsom said about 56% of the state's population of nearly 40 million would contract the virus, according to data analyzed by his office. He added about 19,543 people would have to be hospitalized under that assumption, well beyond the existing surge capacity of California's system, which includes about 10,000 beds across 416 hospitals.

---

---

Using his numbers (accurate at 56% or not),yes it could. 1.88% of the 25.5 million cases he wrote as projected in his letter to Trump is pretty darn "roughly" half a million.
But, miss the point if you wish.

So after totally fabricating that he "stated that he believed 1 million Californians would die", you're doubling down by taking the number of deaths vs the number of cases in California at the time of his letter, using that as your death rate, and claiming that's his projection? After, as I noted, in the same letter he said not quite 20,000 people in his state would need to be hospitalized. Well...ok.

Your point is he way overstated their numbers and needs, and I think we'd all agree that's the case. But being totally disingenuous about it is a really bad look, particularly as you keep defending it.

His letter said what I quoted. "25.5 million infected in an eight week period. And, at the time he wrote it, the numbers for California were what I said. So, how was that disingenuous?

As was also pointed out by another poster, he had apparently said 1 million American may die from it. I wasn't trying to fabricate the thing. Gee.

It's disingenuous because he never said what you're claiming he did.

In his letter he said he expected under 20,000 hospitalized. You can't logically extrapolate from that that he expected half a million people to die, you just decided to apply a percentage to his infection predictions. We had no idea of the mortality rate at that point (and even now only have a partial idea).

And sure, you didn't fabricate it, you just stated something entirely incorrect as fact and keep trying to defend it as only being a little bit wrong. Saying a million cases for the country vs California are completely different things. If you just admitted up front that you made a mistake then it would be whatever, but you keep trying to defend and justify your totally wrong statement.