What is the pre-vaccine end game?

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Cheetah01
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9:58p, 4/12/20
AG
Just read this article which paints a bleak picture for the path forward. If this is how things play out it will take years for our economy to recover. I'm interested it others' perspective on how we go back and when?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/12/999117/blueprint-what-it-will-take-to-live-in-a-world-with-covid-19/amp/
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FratboyLegend
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10:09p, 4/12/20
Get back to work ASAP and let cards fall, said plainly.
#CertifiedSIP
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Infection_Ag11
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10:09p, 4/12/20
AG
I think everyone acknowledges that at some point the economic fallout of this effort will outweigh the economic fallout of millions of Americans getting sick but returning to some degree of normalcy. The only question is what that point is, but regardless it will almost surely be before a vaccine is found to be both efficacious and safe.

Our best hope is that these measures bought us time until the warm summer months when hopefully the virus will remain infective outside the human body for a lesser period of time. If that isn't the case, we're gonna be hurting either way.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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hamean02
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10:10p, 4/12/20
AG
That's an article written with a very cynical tone. It doesn't read as something worth reading to me.
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eric76
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10:16p, 4/12/20
AG
My hope is that we learn the best methods to treat the disease in order to lower the death rate.
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Cheetah01
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In reply to Infection_Ag11 • 10:17p, 4/12/20
AG
I don't mean this as sarcasm. Genuine question as you are a doctor. Do you think the situation is for us to hope this virus doesn't survive in warm temps or else we're basically screwed?
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fightingfarmer09
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10:18p, 4/12/20
Go to work. Live your life. Wash your hands.
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Diyala Nick
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10:19p, 4/12/20
AG
Pre-vaccine, some medication(s) that can be manufactured at massive scale are at least mostly effective at keeping severe cases from going on ventilators and becoming fatal cases.

If we can do that, the portion of the world that has access to those therapies can mostly go back to normal.
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TxAG#2011
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10:23p, 4/12/20
Social distancing
Mask wearing
Temperature checks everywhere
Routine covid testing and contact tracing
Ban on large social gatherings

Not to mention most peoole over 50 will be worried avout leaving the house.

I don't think reality has set in for many.
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Infection_Ag11
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In reply to Cheetah01 • 10:24p, 4/12/20
AG
Cheetah01 said:
I don't mean this as sarcasm. Genuine question as you are a doctor. Do you think the situation is for us to hope this virus doesn't survive in warm temps or else we're basically screwed?


I think if the disease spreads as readily in June/July as it did in March/April we'll be in some trouble, because these social distancing measures can only go on so long. We're a ways off from having a vaccine for use in the general population and it's unlikely we'll have a therapy we know works much sooner than that.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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goodAg80
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10:36p, 4/12/20
AG
My personal less-than-informed view:

  • APRIL
  • Continue with the current restraints until end of April
  • Full focus on increasing N95 mask availability
  • Full focus on widely available, effective CV test (<10 minutes if possible)
  • Develop better CV tracking so infected people can be isolated quickly and accurately
  • MAY-AUGUST
  • Widely implement drive-through screening
  • Create wrist bands for A) infected, but recovered b) screened and clear in last 6 hours
  • Require masks for all public locations; social distancing (SD) maintained
  • Lift shut-down restrictions on businesses that need to have in-person (masks required, SD observed as much as possible)
  • Resume some medical procedures and visit, but hold off on check-ups and elective stuff
  • Parks, etc. , gatherings > 10 still on hold
  • Infected people must immediately quarantine
  • Hospitals, nursing homes etc. cannot be entered without a wrist band (see above)
  • Companies that can tele-commute must work from home
  • Schools stay remote
  • SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER
  • Wrist bands, masks, SD, from above still enforced
  • Infected quarantined
  • Colleges, high-school juniors, seniors resume class with above
  • Sports restarts but televised
  • Other students stay home (government stipend to help)
  • Parks, >10, etc still on hold
  • Still telecommute where possible
  • JANUARY ONWARD
  • Too far into the future, but my guess is 95% back to normal
  • Need to still protect the vulnerable (medical staff, hospitals, nursing homes etc.)
  • SUMMER 2021
  • Vaccine!!

I am not trying to provoke anyone or be callous. Just trying to think it out.
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Not a Bot
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10:45p, 4/12/20
AG
IMO:
Once hospitals have PPE and rapid testing (we now have tests coming back in < 12 hours), reopen retail and offices so long as social distancing measures are in place. Masks should be worn. Have special hours for vulnerable folks. Businesses should screen employees for symptoms upon entry.

No large crowds yet. Restaurants need to significantly spread people out. Churches should still be meeting online. Most common form of transmission is likely close and prolonged contact.

Hospitalization rate will pick up. Announce this ahead of time. Remind people this is not back to normal but to be careful. Idiots will not listen and will have parties. Mother's Day dinners will kill people. Same people will blame politicians for opening up too early.

No matter what we do it will be wrong.
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Sq 17
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In reply to Not a Bot • 5:32a, 4/13/20
presuming testing improves an emergency shelter has to be set up to quarantine the positives for the 2-3 weeks they are contagious. The current situation is people with symptoms are told

" you probably have it ,now go home and try not to infect anybody else " Is total garbage
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zachsccr
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In reply to goodAg80 • 7:16a, 4/13/20
AG
Dr. Coates mentioned a digital tracking system Apple and Google are apparently working on. I could see that fitting in with a wristband type system too. Digital if you're comfortable with it, wristband if you don't want/can't put it on your device.

I wouldn't be too surprised with something like your timeline. Maybe restaurants, theaters, or other public places opened but only allowed to have half-ish their normal patronage. Something like that. People get paid to make these calls, not me.
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tysker
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In reply to goodAg80 • 7:46a, 4/13/20
AG
Quote:
Create wrist bands for A) infected, but recovered b) screened and clear in last 6 hours
Wrist bands manufactured in China?
Wrist band black markets will develop. In SEC country, ticket sellers will offer football tickets with parking passes and wristbands (imagine a Ticket Exchange only selling to verified Aggies and verified non-infeceted)
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Fitch
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8:02a, 4/13/20
AG
Food for thought.

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SUag
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In reply to FratboyLegend • 8:15a, 4/13/20
AG
FratboyLegend said:
Get back to work ASAP and let cards fall, said plainly.


With millions of deaths? Said plainly.
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tysker
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In reply to Fitch • 8:17a, 4/13/20
AG
She's clearly talking her book and even quotes Vox.com (eta, one that suggests millions of Americans could die btw) in that thread. Yeesh. And she's not a medical doctor but instead a PhD from her website:
Quote:
The majority of my past research has been on the phylogenetics, molecular epidemiology, and simulation of HIV, and I was previously involved in the PANGEA_HIV initiative, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Undoubtedly she's well studied and while she is a super-educated biologic computer programmer she is still suffering from Maslow's Hammer in the same way we all are during this process. Its literally her field's, ahem, Hammertime!
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fightingfarmer09
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In reply to Fitch • 8:24a, 4/13/20
Fitch said:
Food for thought.



You are literally citing a post doc for public policy decisions. A post doc that specializes in laboratory practices and not policy implementation.

A blue check mark means nothing besides "I spend a lot of time on twitter" or "I paid a PR firm".
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tysker
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In reply to Infection_Ag11 • 8:36a, 4/13/20
AG
Infection_Ag11 said:
Cheetah01 said:
I don't mean this as sarcasm. Genuine question as you are a doctor. Do you think the situation is for us to hope this virus doesn't survive in warm temps or else we're basically screwed?


I think if the disease spreads as readily in June/July as it did in March/April we'll be in some trouble, because these social distancing measures can only go on so long. We're a ways off from having a vaccine for use in the general population and it's unlikely we'll have a therapy we know works much sooner than that.
At a certain point fears will subside even in the face of new cases and waves. We'll be better adapted to physically, mentally and emotionally handle the risks. No doubt new waves will pop up but we'll be better equipped. If universal vaccine cannot be developed we will eventually consider it to be just another another ugly cold or flu that we can contract and possibly die from. Soon enough we will weave the risks into our life's fabric and again become too busy with life and love to fear.
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