Vaccine Availability - 12 to 18 months

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Cheetah01
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8:39a, 4/14/20
AG
I know when medical professionals are asked, they cannot give an exact timeline for when a new COVID19 vaccine can be available. However, does it seem to anyone else that this is a rolling 12-18 months?

What I mean by this is that we've been hearing 12-18 months since January. Shouldn't it now be 9-15 months or is there reason to believe we are still 12-18 months away based on where we stand with the current candidates in trials?
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Duncan Idaho
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9:31a, 4/14/20
That is not how projections or estimates work.

Saying something will happen in 12-18 months is a short hand way of saying "based on the available data, there is a 95% chance that something may occur at anytime between 12 to 18 months from now"
As time passes and more information is made available, the forcasted range should narrow (go from 12-18 to 12-14) but not necessarily shorten (go from 12-18 to 8-14). In fact it could go longer (12-18 to 18-20)
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HeardAboutPerio
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9:39a, 4/14/20
AG
https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/492372-top-uk-scientist-80-percent-confident-a-covid-19-vaccine-could-be

Fall is Soonest estimate I've seen
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to HeardAboutPerio • 9:45a, 4/14/20
HeardAboutPerio said:
https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/492372-top-uk-scientist-80-percent-confident-a-covid-19-vaccine-could-be

Fall is Soonest estimate I've seen

What is the upper bound on that 80% confidence range?
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 9:56a, 4/14/20
AG
Duncan Idaho said:
That is not how projections or estimates work.

Saying something will happen in 12-18 months is a short hand way of saying "based on the available data, there is a 95% chance that something may occur at anytime between 12 to 18 months from now"
As time passes and more information is made available, the forcasted range should narrow (go from 12-18 to 12-14) but not necessarily shorten (go from 12-18 to 8-14). In fact it could go longer (12-18 to 18-20)
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Not a Bot
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9:58a, 4/14/20
AG
Regulatory approvals for vaccines take a really long time. Trial participants have to be followed for months. It is likely there will be several vaccines under testing by the summer, but with the constraints on approval and mass production it is going to be very difficult to see one available by the end of the year.


Sanofi and GSK are working on a vaccine, but their estimate is fall of 2021.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/492663-two-of-the-worlds-largest-vaccine-manufacturers-collaborate-to-speed-up
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FrioAg 00
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10:18a, 4/14/20
AG
That Oxford announcement was pure hubris, no substance there to support their statement.

I believe 4 potential vaccines (including one from Oxford) are currently in stage 1 trials, expected to run for 90 days each (earliest is in Day 30). The FDA is likely to combine stage 2 and stage 3 (effective eliminating stage 2, the small double blinded study). So 1 of these 4 could potentially be approved for production as early as 6-7 months from now.

The govt and Gates are building manufacturing capability for the most promising ones in parallel - taking some financial risk in order to minimize the time between approval and availability.

There are dozens of potentials still moving towards Phase 1, but obviously they are a few months behind the leaders in the race. It's hard to see any of these available before the Spring if they are the winner.

Personally I am most hopeful on Moderna - uses a totally different technology invented when seeking vaccine for MERS. It uses MRNA to fight a virus, which have historically been so difficult. They would be the soonest and I think their technology is the most promising.
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River Bass
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10:24a, 4/14/20
Maybe a dumb question, but how are we so sure that there will even be a vaccine for COVID-19?
I dont have a back ground in healthcare or epidemiology.
We dont have vaccines for the common cold which include other coronaviruses nor do we have vaccines for other viruses such as SARS-CoV, influenza, etc.

Seems like we are holding out hope and maybe even determining policy based on the assumption that a vaccine will definitely be available and that it's just a matter of time.
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Bucketrunner
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11:30a, 4/14/20
A silver lining of this might be a cure or vaccine for the common cold. Is that reasonable?
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to River Bass • 11:53a, 4/14/20
There are 100(s?) Of virusesl strains that cause the cold and it isn't economically feasible to create a vaccine for the cold. I know I wouldnt pay my copay to avoid getting a cold.

The others you mentioned ran their course before a vaccine could be created/tested and brought to market.
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TheAngelFlight
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11:59a, 4/14/20
Quote:
Maybe a dumb question, but how are we so sure that there will even be a vaccine for COVID-19?
I dont have a back ground in healthcare or epidemiology.
We dont have vaccines for the common cold which include other coronaviruses nor do we have vaccines for other viruses such as SARS-CoV, influenza, etc.
For better or worse, economics play a roll in determining what vaccine development is seen through to completion. There's a bunch of factors, but there's serious economic potential in developing a Covid-19 vaccine.
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One-Eyed Fat Man
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11:59a, 4/14/20
AG
Ok. Say we have a vaccine in 18 months. How much needs to be produced? Enough to vaccinate the world's population? It would seem so since cv is so contagious.

How do you deal with the anti-vaxxers?
How do you distribute it in developing nations with few roads, no a lack of electricity (does it require refrigeration?)

I'm not sure having a vaccine solves all the problems.
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hoosierAG
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12:02p, 4/14/20
AG
There is no 100% cure, even with an effective vaccine. See the flu for example. However, an effective vaccine would make all of this so much more manageable...so many less getting it (basically herd immunity) along with less severe cases, etc.

COVID has a great chance of being with us forever now, just like the flu. But with a vaccine and treatment plan, it will be very manageable.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to One-Eyed Fat Man • 12:02p, 4/14/20
Nothing solves all of the problems.

Don't let perfect be the enemy of good.
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One-Eyed Fat Man
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 12:11p, 4/14/20
AG
Hey, I want the vaccine as bad as the next guy but the point I'm making is there will be some pretty big logistical hurdles to get people vaccinated. Maybe they're already working on those too.
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TAMU1990
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12:11p, 4/14/20
AG
Sara Carter just tweeted the Israel may have a vaccine within a few weeks. They had already been working on an avian coronavirus vaccine for the past 4 years and think they have something.
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hoosierAG
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In reply to TAMU1990 • 12:19p, 4/14/20
AG
I was wondering about that Israel vaccine. Remember reading a month back or so they were just a couple months or weeks/something away. Like you said, they had been working on it for years already and thus the big head start.

Will see I guess...of course their approvals/testing requirements are probably a little different than ours.
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HotardAg07
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12:24p, 4/14/20
AG
I guess there's several hurdles to clear, right? This is a something designed to give to healthy people, not to sick people, so the bar is higher.

1a. Is it safe for humans and do we know the potential side effects or interactions?
1b. Does it even work broadly?

2. Can we make enough of it to achieve herd immunity?

3. Can we distribute it to enough people to achieve herd immunity?

1a and 1b is done in those trials, but 2 and 3 seem like even bigger problems potentially.
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92Ag95
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 12:27p, 4/14/20
AG
Duncan Idaho said:
That is not how projections or estimates work.

Saying something will happen in 12-18 months is a short hand way of saying "based on the available data, there is a 95% chance that something may occur at anytime between 12 to 18 months from now"
As time passes and more information is made available, the forcasted range should narrow (go from 12-18 to 12-14) but not necessarily shorten (go from 12-18 to 8-14). In fact it could go longer (12-18 to 18-20)
Like copying data to an external hard drive where the estimated time remaining at any given point in time is based on the amount of data left to transfer and the instantaneous data transfer rate?
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to TAMU1990 • 12:48p, 4/14/20
AG
Wendy 1990 said:
Sara Carter just tweeted the Israel may have a vaccine within a few weeks. They had already been working on an avian coronavirus vaccine for the past 4 years and think they have something.
The company said they will have a vaccine ready for in-vivo testing in 90 days.

Sara Carter's website's reporter then misreports that as "ready for market in 90 days."

And then whoever writes the headlines and her tweets turns that into "weeks."

Then, a TexAgs poster turns that into "a few weeks." Admittedly, "a few" is ambiguous.


Le sigh.
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pocketrockets06
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 1:15p, 4/14/20
AG
Distribution is already solved in some respects. There is a plan for the USPS to deliver vaccines after a pandemic.

https://www.wired.com/story/us-postal-plan-coronavirus-vaccine-doomsday/
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HotardAg07
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In reply to pocketrockets06 • 1:16p, 4/14/20
AG
I was thinking of distribution chain all the way from packaging, to shipping, to injections. Fascinating article actually.
Shaun Shaikh '07
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AgResearch
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In reply to pocketrockets06 • 1:17p, 4/14/20
AG
pocketrockets06 said:
Distribution is already solved in some respects. There is a plan for the USPS to deliver vaccines after a pandemic.

https://www.wired.com/story/us-postal-plan-coronavirus-vaccine-doomsday/
Well that's great. They'll all get lost in the mail.

At least use someone reliable like FedEx/UPS
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One-Eyed Fat Man
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In reply to pocketrockets06 • 1:20p, 4/14/20
AG
To Chasefu, Eastern Province, Zambia?
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One-Eyed Fat Man
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1:22p, 4/14/20
AG
Several years ago the Gates Foundation was giving grants to researchers to produce different vaccinations that didn't require refrigeration for developing nations.
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eric76
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In reply to One-Eyed Fat Man • 2:34p, 4/14/20
AG
One-Eyed Fat Man said:
Ok. Say we have a vaccine in 18 months. How much needs to be produced? Enough to vaccinate the world's population? It would seem so since cv is so contagious.

How do you deal with the anti-vaxxers?
How do you distribute it in developing nations with few roads, no a lack of electricity (does it require refrigeration?)

I'm not sure having a vaccine solves all the problems.
Perhaps enough for a vaccination every year.

The coronaviruses that account for some portion of colds leave you with a limited immunity of maybe one to three years.

It is entirely possible that could be the same here. We might have to be vaccinated for it yearly.
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eric76
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In reply to hoosierAG • 2:36p, 4/14/20
AG
hoosierAG said:
There is no 100% cure, even with an effective vaccine. See the flu for example. However, an effective vaccine would make all of this so much more manageable...so many less getting it (basically herd immunity) along with less severe cases, etc.

COVID has a great chance of being with us forever now, just like the flu. But with a vaccine and treatment plan, it will be very manageable.
The influenza viruses can recombine to form new viruses fairly easy. Mutations of the virues are also very common.

Is there any indication that coronaviruses can recombine to form new coronaviruses like the influenza viruses do?
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TAMU1990
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 4:14p, 4/14/20
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
Wendy 1990 said:
Sara Carter just tweeted the Israel may have a vaccine within a few weeks. They had already been working on an avian coronavirus vaccine for the past 4 years and think they have something.
The company said they will have a vaccine ready for in-vivo testing in 90 days.

Sara Carter's website's reporter then misreports that as "ready for market in 90 days."

And then whoever writes the headlines and her tweets turns that into "weeks."

Then, a TexAgs poster turns that into "a few weeks." Admittedly, "a few" is ambiguous.


Le sigh.
I guess my quarantine brain processed 90 days into a few weeks. Definitely better than 365-550 days.

On a more somber note, there was a Harvard study that showed we may have to do intermittent periods of social distancing for 2 years if the medical community can't find an effective vaccine or treatment protocols. That really sucks. I hope these intermittent periods are around the football and baseball seasons.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to TAMU1990 • 5:09p, 4/14/20
If we are lucky we will see a resurgence in the fall...i think it happens sooner and will be an absolute nightmare because we were so effective this round, people will be even slower to respond.

The good news is after that happens the resurgence in the fall will be closer to this go round because people will be scared and hopefully we won't squander that time like we have the past few weeks.
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lmarcus
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6:26p, 4/14/20
There is a faster way of doing this: (and we now have two drugs that seem effective if given early on: Kaletra and Remdesivir ) as well as several antibody tests


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00927-3
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to TAMU1990 • 6:33p, 4/14/20
AG
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oragator
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8:54p, 4/14/20
Not for nothing, but when Salk made the polio vaccine, he got permission from the feds to make his final clinical trial a volunteer effort nationally, and 2 nearly million people signed up. Wouldn't be surprised to see something like that here.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1114166/
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Tx-Ag2010
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In reply to oragator • 8:58p, 4/14/20
AG
oragator said:
Not for nothing, but when Salk made the polio vaccine, he got permission from the feds to make his final clinical trial a volunteer effort nationally, and 2 nearly million people signed up. Wouldn't be surprised to see something like that here.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1114166/


I will definitely not be signing up for a volunteer vaccine without some testing on its effect.
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oragator
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In reply to Tx-Ag2010 • 9:02p, 4/14/20
Salk has a few smaller tests first, mostly on those in mental homes and other "less thans".

But that was also how the March of dimes started. People literally sent dimes to the White house to find a cure at the request of the government.. When the cure was found, there were a whole lot of people who felt they had a hand in it.

The whole process looks crazy when you look at it now.
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jenn96
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In reply to oragator • 9:49p, 4/14/20
AG
oragator said:
Salk has a few smaller tests first, mostly on those in mental homes and other "less thans".

But that was also how the March of dimes started. People literally sent dimes to the White house to find a cure at the request of the government.. When the cure was found, there were a whole lot of people who felt they had a hand in it.

The whole process looks crazy when you look at it now.

Polio was killing and crippling their kids. I can't even imagine how terrifying it must have been. One of the reasons I'm reasonably concerned but not terrified of COVID 19 is because it doesn't affect young children (generally). If the fatality rates were reversed and children were the demographic in high risk with high mortality I'd be out of my mind with fear.
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