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human trial of vaccine to begin tomorrow?
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Last: 5 yr ago by FCBlitz
Good news...
I posted it in another thread, but the brain power and energy being thrown at this for such an immediate critical need might be unrivaled in human history.
If this one doesn't work, there will be one not far behind it that will. I truly have confidence that some form of a vaccine will shatter normal timing and be successful. And if it makes someone crazy rich in the process, they've earned it - I am hoping it comes from Gates or some public institution to keep costs down, but if not, enjoy your money. May the best man or woman win.
I posted it in another thread, but the brain power and energy being thrown at this for such an immediate critical need might be unrivaled in human history.
If this one doesn't work, there will be one not far behind it that will. I truly have confidence that some form of a vaccine will shatter normal timing and be successful. And if it makes someone crazy rich in the process, they've earned it - I am hoping it comes from Gates or some public institution to keep costs down, but if not, enjoy your money. May the best man or woman win.
A human trial started in the US back in March I believe - in Washington (maybe other locations as well).
VA patients are not a normal sample of patients in the USA. They have much higher incidence of COPD, heart disease, & HTN, all high risk factor for COVID19. There are too many physicians who have noted improvement in patient outcomes with hydrochloroquine, zithromax, and zinc for it not be clinically significant.
Complete Idiot said:
A human trial started in the US back in March I believe - in Washington (maybe other locations as well).
Here in Texas I have been immunizing with liberal dosing of IPAs and Pinot Noirs since COVID first made an appearance in TX. So far so good. Side-effects have been maneagable.
So what are they testing at this point?
Is it the effectiveness? Or the side effects?
How do the test the effectiveness in an ethical way?
Is it the effectiveness? Or the side effects?
How do the test the effectiveness in an ethical way?
BoneBoy said:
There are too many physicians who have noted improvement in patient outcomes with hydrochloroquine, zithromax, and zinc for it not be clinically significant.
That just isn't true
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
DTP
I have been seeing side effects from this method of treatment.
Early morning Flue like Symptoms
Increased weight gain
Higher Levels of Evening Happiness
I have been seeing side effects from this method of treatment.
Early morning Flue like Symptoms
Increased weight gain
Higher Levels of Evening Happiness
It is true that many Dr. are reporting success. Not sure what you mean by not true. There are literally hundreds of examples already.Infection_Ag11 said:BoneBoy said:
There are too many physicians who have noted improvement in patient outcomes with hydrochloroquine, zithromax, and zinc for it not be clinically significant.
That just isn't true
DadHammer said:It is true that many Dr. are reporting success. Not sure what you mean by not true. There are literally hundreds of examples already.Infection_Ag11 said:BoneBoy said:
There are too many physicians who have noted improvement in patient outcomes with hydrochloroquine, zithromax, and zinc for it not be clinically significant.
That just isn't true
I don't deny numerous anecdotal reports of success. His claim that these reports mean it MUST be beneficial is false however.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Current official treatment guidelines.
Can lag what is being learned out there on the front lines, sure.
https://covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapeutic-options-under-investigation/antiviral-therapy/
Can lag what is being learned out there on the front lines, sure.
https://covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapeutic-options-under-investigation/antiviral-therapy/
DadHammer said:It is true that many Dr. are reporting success. Not sure what you mean by not true. There are literally hundreds of examples already.Infection_Ag11 said:BoneBoy said:
There are too many physicians who have noted improvement in patient outcomes with hydrochloroquine, zithromax, and zinc for it not be clinically significant.
That just isn't true
Even fox and the white house have pretty much given up on this treatment as anything more than "**** it, what do you have to lose?
Wasn't this thread supposed to be about vaccines?
Same. And Bourbon for extra innoculation.DTP02 said:Complete Idiot said:
A human trial started in the US back in March I believe - in Washington (maybe other locations as well).
Here in Texas I have been immunizing with liberal dosing of IPAs and Pinot Noirs since COVID first made an appearance in TX. So far so good. Side-effects have been maneagable.
How do you test it? Get said shot and go stand around sick folks for a few hours, may get sneezed on?
If I was placing a wager that there is a 75% chance that a successful and available vaccine will not be around in 18 months.
And a 50% chance that by the time one is available it is deemed not financial or scientifically necessary when it is completed.
Just looking at previous coronavirus vaccine attempts.
And a 50% chance that by the time one is available it is deemed not financial or scientifically necessary when it is completed.
Just looking at previous coronavirus vaccine attempts.
I think you are probably right for the first guess but not at all right for the second guess.
Can I just ask, why are you all in on the catastrophic results? What are you seeing that's making you believe so?Duncan Idaho said:
I think you are probably right for the first guess but not at all right for the second guess.
I've seen in several places where you believe the place we end up is hundreds of thousands of deaths, if not more. Just want to know the perspective you're coming from.
Believing in a catastrophic outcome makes dealing with the current situation much easier. It's human nature.
If you don't believe in the catastrophic outcome, then you start to question the current situation and you just get mad.
If you don't believe in the catastrophic outcome, then you start to question the current situation and you just get mad.
Beat40 said:Can I just ask, why are you all in on the catastrophic results? What are you seeing that's making you believe so?Duncan Idaho said:
I think you are probably right for the first guess but not at all right for the second guess.
I've seen in several places where you believe the place we end up is hundreds of thousands of deaths, if not more. Just want to know the perspective you're coming from.
I thought the post you quoted was pretty optimistic. I think we will find a vaccine and I think we will develop a relatively effective treatment.
If I am overly pessimistic, it is because I see how big the overly optimistic or even nonchalant segments of the population are.
The simple fact that there are still people saying "it's just the flu" or "**** you I aint wearing a mask" is a big part of it. People won't wear a mask...to save lives and end this ..what else won't they do.
Nationally, We are still on the incline for new cases. And even if we were on a decline, there are still a lot of cases out there. It won't take much for either a national or many many local flare ups to occur.
This isn't over in August. This is over when we get a vaccine/treatment or we reach herd immunity (which doesn't mean it magically stops when we hit that threshold, it means populations without an active break out are safer from an outbreak gaining traction.)
If we go the herd route, we are talking 360mm people
At least 50% are old, fat or some other comorbitity. (180mm)
Herd Imunity happens at 60-70% (108mm)
Even at a 1% death rate for those with a comorbitity that are infected you are looking at 1.08mm dead bodies. Even at 30% comorbitity, you are looking at 648,000
Add in the current lack of testing capacity (how many tests), testing capability(how accurate of tests) and testing strategy (who gets tested) I don't see how we identify hot spots fast enough to stamp them out quickly enough to keep it from spinning out of control. Add in how hard it will be (impossible) to do another national shutdown if needed. So the Korea outcome isn't going to happen.
My Outlook might **** 180degrees next week if the reopen is closer to the current status than what I am expecting based on the protests and posters i see here.
We will know in 3 weeks when the fall out from this weeks protests become known.
I think the proper term is "2 weeks"
Johnny2Fan said:
How do you test it? Get said shot and go stand around sick folks for a few hours, may get sneezed on?
I'm not sure about this particular trial that is linked, but many of the trials want to test healthcare workers or other first responders as they are more likely to encounter the virus before the general population. Not sure what their primary endpoint will be...positive COVID test, hospitalization, antibody production, etc.
78 in development:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/we-need-a-vaccine-to-vanquish-covid-19-heres-how-scientists-are-trying-to-find-it
I know there are at least 3 in phase 1 human trials to start to prove efficacy and safety.
It is really impressive the money and focus on this problem. Exciting to see.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/we-need-a-vaccine-to-vanquish-covid-19-heres-how-scientists-are-trying-to-find-it
Quote:
There are 78 confirmed trials under way right now looking for a vaccine to attack this novel coronavirus. There are a couple techniques that are novel techniques, not quite proven yet, which involve using DNA and RNA, the genetic material, to get the immune system response that you want inside the human body.
I know there are at least 3 in phase 1 human trials to start to prove efficacy and safety.
It is really impressive the money and focus on this problem. Exciting to see.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
BoneBoy said:
VA patients are not a normal sample of patients in the USA. They have much higher incidence of COPD, heart disease, & HTN, all high risk factor for COVID19. There are too many physicians who have noted improvement in patient outcomes with hydrochloroquine, zithromax, and zinc for it not be clinically significant.
There was literally nothing in the story regarding HCQ.
Thank you for sharing. By the way, I hope you didn't take it as some sort of attack, because that was not my intent. I wanted to know your perspective because I think sharing them helps me hone mine, but I think is ultimately good for future discussion as we understand where people are coming from.Duncan Idaho said:Beat40 said:Can I just ask, why are you all in on the catastrophic results? What are you seeing that's making you believe so?Duncan Idaho said:
I think you are probably right for the first guess but not at all right for the second guess.
I've seen in several places where you believe the place we end up is hundreds of thousands of deaths, if not more. Just want to know the perspective you're coming from.
I thought the post you quoted was pretty optimistic. I think we will find a vaccine and I think we will develop a relatively effective treatment.
If I am overly pessimistic, it is because I see how big the overly optimistic or even nonchalant segments of the population are.
The simple fact that there are still people saying "it's just the flu" or "**** you I aint wearing a mask" is a big part of it. People won't wear a mask...to save lives and end this ..what else won't they do.
Nationally, We are still on the incline for new cases. And even if we were on a decline, there are still a lot of cases out there. It won't take much for either a national or many many local flare ups to occur.
This isn't over in August. This is over when we get a vaccine/treatment or we reach herd immunity (which doesn't mean it magically stops when we hit that threshold, it means populations without an active break out are safer from an outbreak gaining traction.)
If we go the herd route, we are talking 360mm people
At least 50% are old, fat or some other comorbitity. (180mm)
Herd Imunity happens at 60-70% (108mm)
Even at a 1% death rate for those with a comorbitity that are infected you are looking at 1.08mm dead bodies. Even at 30% comorbitity, you are looking at 648,000
Add in the current lack of testing capacity (how many tests), testing capability(how accurate of tests) and testing strategy (who gets tested) I don't see how we identify hot spots fast enough to stamp them out quickly enough to keep it from spinning out of control. Add in how hard it will be (impossible) to do another national shutdown if needed. So the Korea outcome isn't going to happen.
My Outlook might **** 180degrees next week if the reopen is closer to the current status than what I am expecting based on the protests and posters i see here.
We will know in 3 weeks when the fall out from this weeks protests become known.
The "not at all right for the second guess" wording, along with some of the comments I've seen you make is what made me ask. It was less about that one post and more about in general. You're one of the few who has voiced they still believe we'll reach the level of catastrophe. I think there are others who think the same way who just aren't voicing it. I'm more toward the lower side, but still expect numbers to rise.
I share in the sentient that numbers will absolutely increase as things are opened up. It's inevitable. There is no way we can completely stop the spread, even with a vaccine.
I have a more optimistic view of people in general because I do think most people act in the self interest of preserving one's self. There was increased hand washing at my office before social distancing became the thing. Heard for multiple accounts on here the same thing. I also remember seeing data from the first week that a very large portion of people did take social distancing seriously in the first week before places started stay at home orders.
Yeah, there are going to be people who act against everyone's best interest, but the question is what is the percentage and how much effect does it have?
At the end of the day, until we even know more about the prevalence of the virus, I think we'll end up below 25% of initial model estimates.
I hope and literally pray that you are right.
But then we have things like the HPD union saying "enforcement of mask requirements? Yeah **** that"
The mayor of vegas spouting her crazy.
The Christian talk station I listen to is actively promoting protests.
And then you have the businesses Georgia wants to open this week..it is like he sat at his desk and thought "how can we infect the most people as quickly as possible"
But then we have things like the HPD union saying "enforcement of mask requirements? Yeah **** that"
The mayor of vegas spouting her crazy.
The Christian talk station I listen to is actively promoting protests.
And then you have the businesses Georgia wants to open this week..it is like he sat at his desk and thought "how can we infect the most people as quickly as possible"
Duncan Idaho said:
I hope and literally pray that you are right.
But then we have things like the HPD union saying "enforcement of mask requirements? Yeah **** that"
The mayor of vegas spouting her crazy.
The Christian talk station I listen to is actively promoting protests.
And then you have the businesses Georgia wants to open this week..it is like he sat at his desk and thought "how can we infect the most people as quickly as possible"
You have lost it son.
Which part?
Even trump thinks Georgia is wrong.
Wednesday he "strongly disagrees" with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp's decision to allow businesses like barber shops and nail salons to reopen, a day after he praised him during the White House briefing.
"I told the governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, that I disagree strongly with his decision to open certain facilities," Trump said at his daily coronavirus briefing on Wednesday. "But at the same time, he must do what he thinks is right. I want him to do what he thinks is right. But I disagree with him on what he's doing."
Even trump thinks Georgia is wrong.
Wednesday he "strongly disagrees" with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp's decision to allow businesses like barber shops and nail salons to reopen, a day after he praised him during the White House briefing.
"I told the governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, that I disagree strongly with his decision to open certain facilities," Trump said at his daily coronavirus briefing on Wednesday. "But at the same time, he must do what he thinks is right. I want him to do what he thinks is right. But I disagree with him on what he's doing."
Phase 1 is safety. What side effects. Give to a small number of healthy people at various doses.Duncan Idaho said:
So what are they testing at this point?
Is it the effectiveness? Or the side effects?
How do the test the effectiveness in an ethical way?
Phase 2 is a limited efficacy. Smaller than phase 3, usually various doses and regimes determined safe by phase 1.
Phase 3 is a large scale study based on the optimal dose/regime determined by phase 2. For a vaccine, you typically look at how many get sick in test vs control hoping to see a much small number in the test to show effectiveness. It takes a lot of people and/or a long time.
Additionally, since we would give this to various ages, they typically start with health around college age in phase 1 and then if that is safe, move to test other age groups working down to infants and up to elderly.
Phase 3 can theoretically be accelerated and with smaller group by giving vaccine waiting a week and then injecting the live virus. But this basically guarantees giving the disease to the control group and then hopefully most of the test group doesn't get it. This is not typically done and it isn't a good look to intentionally infect people with a disease. However, some people have proposed this as a way to get to the vaccine faster.
Infection_Ag11 said:DadHammer said:It is true that many Dr. are reporting success. Not sure what you mean by not true. There are literally hundreds of examples already.Infection_Ag11 said:BoneBoy said:
There are too many physicians who have noted improvement in patient outcomes with hydrochloroquine, zithromax, and zinc for it not be clinically significant.
That just isn't true
I don't deny numerous anecdotal reports of success. His claim that these reports mean it MUST be beneficial is false however.
I don't understand this need to poo poo Plaquenil/ZPak drug cocktail. Even though there is great satisfaction to pronounce this cocktails as ineffective I have personally Spoken with numerous doctors who had great result if giving early to a patient and they have reported it is not as effective if giving late in the progression of COVID19. That is where one of the other two drugs are administered.
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