Op-ed by an Aggie biostatistician on testing

3,689 Views | 21 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Carnwellag2
Hub `93
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9:17a, 4/30/20
AG
Keeping the country closed until everyone is tested is not feasible

Jeff did his graduate work at A&M. He was also my neighbor before he moved to Philly. Brilliant guy who loves talking Aggie football as much as he does P values and correlation coefficients.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to Hub `93 • 9:20a, 4/30/20
No body is suggesting that we keep everything locked down until we test everyone.

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cone
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9:22a, 4/30/20
AG
you want aggressive testing where the % positives are in the low single digits

that means the overall approach is largely working
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to cone • 9:26a, 4/30/20
cone said:
you want aggressive testing where the % positives are in the low single digits

that means the overall approach is largely working

And you want deep and frequent testing in healthcare and public facing jobs. That is most of thst 5 mm/day number.
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MasterAggie
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10:04a, 4/30/20
AG
Quote:
No body is suggesting that we keep everything locked down until we test everyone.
Funny I hear it alluded to all the time.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 10:14a, 4/30/20
AG
Duncan Idaho said:
No body is suggesting that we keep everything locked down until we test everyone.

There are several on the left, from media to governors of Dem states, who have said just that.

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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 10:28a, 4/30/20
They havent said that every one needs to be tested.

They have said that an aggressive testing program is a requirement to fully opening everything up.
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 10:31a, 4/30/20
AG 2000' said:
Duncan Idaho said:
No body is suggesting that we keep everything locked down until we test everyone.

There are several on the left, from media to governors of Dem states, who have said just that.

Link to everything/everyone comments from multiple governors please.
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Goose61
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10:49a, 4/30/20
AG
No, testing everyone in a country of 350 million is not feasible (it would be nice in a perfect world, but this is not a perfect world), just that we need to be (and should have been) testing at far higher levels per capita than we are doing.

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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to Goose61 • 10:55a, 4/30/20
Goose61 said:
No, testing everyone in a country of 350 million is not feasible (it would be nice in a perfect world, but this is not a perfect world), just that we need to be (and should have been) testing at far higher levels per capita known case than we are doing.



Fify.

When we get as mature as Korea we can test as little as korea.
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FCBlitz
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 11:09a, 4/30/20
AG 2000' said:
Duncan Idaho said:
No body is suggesting that we keep everything locked down until we test everyone.

There are several on the left, from media to governors of Dem states, who have said just that.



I have to second this statement. There is a FB war going on (Fed by media stories) that until comprehensive test is done then everyone should stay put.

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FCBlitz
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 11:12a, 4/30/20
Duncan Idaho said:
Goose61 said:
No, testing everyone in a country of 350 million is not feasible (it would be nice in a perfect world, but this is not a perfect world), just that we need to be (and should have been) testing at far higher levels per capita known case than we are doing.



Fify.

When we get as mature as Korea we can test as little as korea.


Korea is not the US. They are able to do things that our population density areas will not not.

I will argue that social distancing in a small town USA is much more of the South Korean model. Small districts where folks stay. They know their neighbors and tend to work towards the common good.

NYC not so much.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to FCBlitz • 11:28a, 4/30/20
FCBlitz said:
AG 2000' said:
Duncan Idaho said:
No body is suggesting that we keep everything locked down until we test everyone.

There are several on the left, from media to governors of Dem states, who have said just that.



I have to second this statement. There is a FB war going on (Fed by media stories) that until comprehensive test is done then everyone should stay put.


Oh well Facebook....why didnt you say so.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to FCBlitz • 11:40a, 4/30/20
FCBlitz said:
Duncan Idaho said:
Goose61 said:
No, testing everyone in a country of 350 million is not feasible (it would be nice in a perfect world, but this is not a perfect world), just that we need to be (and should have been) testing at far higher levels per capita known case than we are doing.



Fify.

When we get as mature as Korea we can test as little as korea.


Korea is not the US. They are able to do things that our population density areas will not not.

I will argue that social distancing in a small town USA is much more of the South Korean model. Small districts where folks stay. They know their neighbors and tend to work towards the common good.

NYC not so much.

I agree. Korea took focused and direct action and they are able to pursue a more focused and less damaging maintenance strategy. The point was to cut off the people that will say "but Korea isnt testing as much as we are"
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Belton Ag
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11:49a, 4/30/20
AG
For the record, since it appears few people on this thread actually read the piece linked in the OP, it addresses and refutes a specific report done by a group at Harvard.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to Belton Ag • 12:09p, 4/30/20
From the article
Quote:


To put this into perspective: 20 million tests per day would mean testing every individual in the U.S. every two weeks or so.


No one of any credibility is suggesting that we do a rolling test of 20mm people a day.

They are saying that just like those people in direct contact with the president currently do, people in high risk or highly contagious jobs get tested on a near daily, if not daily basis.

Bus drivers, flight attendants, retail workers, healthcare workers jobs were you are in contact with a lot of people and social distancing isnt really feasible need to be tested and isolated with laser like focus.

That is how you have a fully open economy.

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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to normaleagle05 • 1:26p, 4/30/20
No it isnt.
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normaleagle05
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 1:43p, 4/30/20
AG
That's so poor a counter argument that it fails to name the argument it attempts to counter.
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normaleagle05
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 2:02p, 4/30/20
AG
The OP is a link to an "Expert Opinion" article. So, yeah.

Though that doesn't negate the low quality of your Snot Stew argument.
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Aston94
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2:12p, 4/30/20
AG
Man, this thread is really helpful.
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Hub `93
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2:17p, 4/30/20
AG
I regret everything.
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Carnwellag2
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 8:53p, 4/30/20
Duncan Idaho said:
No body is suggesting that we keep everything locked down until we test everyone.

Nobody???
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Carnwellag2
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In reply to cone • 8:55p, 4/30/20
cone said:
you want aggressive testing where the % positives are in the low single digits

that means the overall approach is largely working
Why? Who is willing to take a test every few days. Some of these aren't pleasant and the cost will be to much for most
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