I see that in Lubbock County that there are 549 confirmed cases and 44 deaths....a death rate of 1/12.

But we know that the IFR is not going to be anywhere near that.

How close are we to the point where we can begin to get a good number of the actual number of those infected by using the death count?

Probably not, deaths are tied very directly to nursing home outbreaks. One CNA who works in multiple facilities could become a super spreader and cause a spike in fatalities even if the underlying infection rate was quite low.

Sq 17 said:

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Probably not, deaths are tied very directly to nursing home outbreaks. One CNA who works in multiple facilities could become a super spreader and cause a spike in fatalities even if the underlying infection rate was quite low.

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Explain why nursing home deaths shouldn't count? Because they aren't really able to shelter in place?

I mean maybe the <65 <45 case/death counts would provide more useful value to people of the internet, but if the idea is long term everyone catches this more or less you can't just throw out clusters of >75 based on their vectors.

Sq 17 said:

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Probably not, deaths are tied very directly to nursing home outbreaks. One CNA who works in multiple facilities could become a super spreader and cause a spike in fatalities even if the underlying infection rate was quite low.

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Yep. Lubbock apparently had a huge nursing home outbreak. Can't really glean much from that as it's not a similar cohort as the general population.

Sorry you misunderstood my post , All deaths count the question was could you estimate the level of infection in the general population based on the number of fatalities.

Because fatalities spikes when the Covid gets into a nursing facility , a spike in death rate from a cluster in a nursing facility does not give any indication of infection rate in the community. As the infection rate in the community goes up it becomes much harder to keep the Covid out of the nursing facility.