Australian study indicates very low risk of spread from children and adolescents

3,124 Views | 16 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by ham98
Keegan99
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AG
http://ncirs.org.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/NCIRS%20NSW%20Schools%20COVID_Summary_FINAL%20public_26%20April%202020.pdf

Quote:

Results

In the 15 schools (10 high school and 5 primary schools) a total of 18 COVID-19 cases (9 students and 9 staff) were identified between 5 March 2020 and 3 April 2020 (refer to Figure 1). The public health staff identified 863 close contacts in these 15 schools. Of the 863 close contacts, only two students have been identified as secondary cases. One of these was diagnosed by nose/throat swab testing and one had a positive antibody test 4 weeks after their exposure. A review showed that it was most likely, but not certain, that these two children were infected by transmission in the school environment.

High schools

A total of 12 COVID-19 index cases (8 students and 4 staff) were identified who had attended 10 high schools while infectious. The total number of close contacts in these 10 high schools was 598 students and 97 staff (total of 695 contacts). Nose/throat swabs were taken from one third (n=235) of contacts, all of which tested negative. In one high school, of the 75 close contacts who underwent blood testing at approximately 1 month after contact with the initial cases while infectious, only 1 student had antibodies detected, indicating infection had occurred. Overall, as shown in Figure 2, only one of 695 individuals was identified to have been infected following close contact with a school case in these 10 high schools.

Primary schools

A total of six initial cases (comprising one student and five staff) were identified in five primary schools. The total number of close contacts in these five primary schools was 137 students and 31 staff (total of 168 contacts). Nose/throat swabs were taken from one third (n=53) of contacts. Only one secondary case (nose/throat swab positive) was identified in the 168 close contacts. In the same primary school that had this secondary case, 21 close contacts underwent blood testing. The same student whose nose/throat swab tested positive also had antibodies detected through serology testing, consistent with their known recent infection. Overall, as shown in Figure 3, only one of 168 individuals was identified to have been infected following close contact with a school case in these five primary schools.
El Hombre Mas Guapo
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chase128
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So they didn't close down schools in this area?

Well, this is good news then. I wish there were more studies like this, because this is promising.

So far in Texas, only about 1% of the cases are children under 9 years old, but we've closed schools so I'm not sure if the low infection rate is due to school closure or kids not transmitting it.

EDIT:
So at the end of the report they state:
"It is notable that on 23 March 2020 the NSW Premier advised that although schools remained open, parents were encouraged to keep their children at home for online learning. After this date face-to-face attendance in schools decreased significantly and this may have impacted the results of this investigation. Furthermore, school holidays commenced in NSW on Friday 10 April for two weeks."
SkiMo
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chase128 said:

So they didn't close down schools in this area?

Well, this is good news then. I wish there were more studies like this, because this is promising.

So far in Texas, only about 1% of the cases are children under 9 years old, but we've closed schools.
Schools were closed all around the country because we didn't know if children were/are able to spread it...and still don't fully know. It's easy to look back months in the past and say we should've done things differently. And I'm sure we will...but you have to prepare for the worst, and that's what we did. Also, kids don't teach themselves... so there are lots of adults at the schools as well.
Charpie
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Closing the schools wasn't about protecting the kids. It was about stopping the spread.
Proposition Joe
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Charpie said:

Closing the schools wasn't about protecting the kids. It was about stopping the spread.

It was about both. Mid-March when the schools started to shutdown we didn't yet know how much of an impact it would have on kids. We didn't know much of anything -- I think even into late March there were areas promoting "fist bumps" instead of handshakes.
Keegan99
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And it seems it may have been misguided, as evidence from this study and, perhaps more importantly, Sweden indicates.
chase128
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Yeah, I'm not being critical of the decision of closing schools here in the US. I was just trying to understand the study and how the virus has spread there versus here in the US.

I edited my original post, but it looks like that study notes parents could have kept their children home towards the end of March so their results could have been affected.

If this study ends up being right about children not spreading the virus, that's definitely a good sign for us going forward.
Charpie
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I don't disagree.

The problem is we know a lot more now than we did then..even though "then" was only 6 weeks ago.

I am all for summer school and fall to open up like nothing has happened knowing what we know now.
HotardAg07
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At the time schools were closed, it was not at all clear whether children were:
  • contagious but not symptomatic or:
  • not getting infected due to some immunity, thus not contagious and not symptomatic

I don't know how you could fault government leaders for making the decision that they did at the time.

I remember looking back at the Diamond princess, which is one of the few places still where the whole population was tested. They had relatively few children, and in the group there were some that were infected. Among the infected, 2/3 were asymptomatic.

So again, given the limited data at the time, it seemed like the right conclusion. Additionally, people always focus on children with school closures, but there are also a lot of teachers, administrators, support staff, etc. that were potentially at risk in high contact environments.
Keegan99
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It was absolutely the correct decision at the time given the uncertainty.

But we shouldn't be compounding that overstep by talking about keeping schools closed in the fall, limiting summer activities for kids, and a host of other issues.

Of course, the press has done such a poor job of informing parents that the risk to their children is LESS than the risk of the flu that there is an army of Karens thinking they're protecting their kids by keeping them inside 24/7.
DTP02
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I can't decide if the tweets on the twitter thread linked below, which analyzes some of the transmission data pulled from various places is better suited for its own thread or here. Since one of the biggest takeaways from the link supports the premise in the OP, I'm going to put it here:



There are a couple of tweets that are inartfully worded, which may confuse a couple of minor facts, maybe due to language barrier? But it includes some analysis I hadn't seen before.
DTP02
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Charpie said:

Closing the schools wasn't about protecting the kids. It was about stopping the spread.


I don't think that's exactly true. I think much of the discussion is still being driven by a primordial "we must protect the children" sentiment and associated political risk aversion.

Look at some of the discussions going on even now. So much focus on preventing infection for demos that are highly unlikely to be hospitalized, even less likely to die, and who it is starting to appear aren't even that dangerous as vectors for spread.

Policy-makers and public debate is way behind the facts still.
Carnwellag2
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Proposition Joe said:

Charpie said:

Closing the schools wasn't about protecting the kids. It was about stopping the spread.

It was about both. Mid-March when the schools started to shutdown we didn't yet know how much of an impact it would have on kids. We didn't know much of anything -- I think even into late March there were areas promoting "fist bumps" instead of handshakes.
good things we just reacted without getting evidence...... didn't cost us a thing.
Smokedraw01
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Please let us go back in August. I can't stand that I have to try to hide my indoctrination of the kids over a Zoom meeting.
"If you run into an ******* in the morning, you ran into an *******. If you run into *******s all day, you're the *******." – Raylan Givens, "Justified."
Smokedraw01
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Carnwellag2 said:

Proposition Joe said:

Charpie said:

Closing the schools wasn't about protecting the kids. It was about stopping the spread.

It was about both. Mid-March when the schools started to shutdown we didn't yet know how much of an impact it would have on kids. We didn't know much of anything -- I think even into late March there were areas promoting "fist bumps" instead of handshakes.
good things we just reacted without getting evidence...... didn't cost us a thing.
Let's call it "incomplete evidence". At the time, people were making the best decision they could with the information they had.
"If you run into an ******* in the morning, you ran into an *******. If you run into *******s all day, you're the *******." – Raylan Givens, "Justified."
Aust Ag
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1st round of summer camp cancellations for June just came across my email.
ham98
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Worst response possible. Healthy kids need to go to Covid-19 summer camps in order to protect schools in the autumn
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