Keegan99 said:

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We've lost more Americans to this virus than died in the entirity of Vietnam and we're on track to have more Americans die from this virus than died in WW1 (that includes the deaths of US soldiers from the Spanish Flu). And that's if things don't get worse.

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You're seriously comparing an event where the median age of death of about 20 to one where the median age of death is about 80?

Put another way: The median fatality in Vietnam, which occurred half a century ago, was born AFTER the median COVID-19 fatality.


If you want an honest comparison, reference the Hong Kong Flu of 1968, and adjust for population size.

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Even if it could simply be reduced to age, there is no way to isolate age. Too many elderly rely on the care of the young.

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Most high side antigen studies suggest more like 10-15% of NYC has had the virus (supporting the .7%-1% fatality rate). And, again assuming they are truly "asymptomatic", it really doesn't line up with the healthcare system being overwhelmed - NYC, Ecuador, Italy, Wuhan, Russia, Spain, etc. The evidence is pretty clear that these relatively isolated, homogeneous groups of people working in the same facility are not necessarily representative of society as a whole - and it's not just simply "age" that can even support such discrepancies.

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California Ag 90 said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Blind optimism should not be a driver of policy.

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i'm searching everywhere for blind optimism and can't find it.

*this thread acting like 90% asymptomatic rates are population normalized... Otherwise nobody would talk about it because this bull**** asymptomatic story means nothing. It's not scientific, it's populistic. "Look everything is fine".*

the vast majority of Americans took their leaders' guidance and shut down their lives, educations, work, and financial well being for several weeks, in an unprecedented act of benevolence to save lives.

*it also probably saved the economy and the healthcare system. It was not some charity to "save lives - it was physically necessary*

that was done in an act of blind pessimism - acceptance and avoidance of the most grim worst case scenario this virus could have created.

*which would have happened had we not acted. You don't get the credit for the result for the not acting narrative. We were so far behind in March, we really didn'thave a choice*

facing the reality of systemic collapse in the healthcare industry, collapse of state and local tax base across the country, impending end of PPP money and growing reticence to print more money to deal with that at a national level, and a virus that we, as you clearly state, do not remotely understand yet, is not blind optimism.

*There's plenty of evidence that this is really bad, and just because the collective you fail to appreciate that doesn't mean that's blind pessimism. Turns out that the number of deaths from social distancing will fall within the infamous 100k-240k model that you all ostracized as proof that models lack credibility and we should just run things on intuition (if it's not intuition - what rigorous analysis are you bringing to the table that shows that we shouldn't have acted?). That is blind optimisim. Modeling expected results and making logical and reasonable adjustments is the opposite of blind pessimism.

it is necessity.

*if you'll notice I said we need to start reopening in a measured and calculated way. The evidence has shown that we cannot stop this virus at this point - as seen by the rising case count outside of NYC. But that is not cause for celebration. We were asleep at the wheel in Feb. when we could have completely contained this situation without nearly as much death or economic loss. How do I know? I was in Italy in Mid-Feb. I came back March 1st and didn't even have to get my temperature checked after customs in Turkey - even though the scrutany for me reentrring should have been way more than that. Once it was spreading in Italy, we should have acted then. That was our great failure... The rest is on China.*

the lack of any admiration and respect for what the American people have already agreed to, and the pain they have taken on in the absence of anything more than informed speculation from leaders, has been very disappointing.

*The models have turned out remarkably accurate for something we don't understand. Remember that it's just as likely that things are worse than we think than better than we think at this point. We took what we knew and we modeled it is not speculation.

there are no blind optimists. at worst, there are disillusioned good American citizens who have absorbed tremendous loss in support of policies that, daily, are undermined by data.

*Then why try to shut down models, epidemiologists, and scientists? Even many economists recommended the shut down even as recently as yesterday froma Fed chairman. Because without their input, I'd argue your opinion is "blind". And again this asymptomatic story can be nothing short of optimism. Decisions should be made with meaningful data of which plenty sggests the lockdown saved us from catastrophe, but because it didn't happen you can always choose plausible deniability. But at the end of the day, we made data driven decisions and I'm glad we did.

remarkably, however, there remain untold numbers of blind pessimists who freely impose additional loss without real understanding of this virus. it is blind pessimism that should not be a driver of policy, anymore.

*We'll see. I think it's likely that what happened in New York will take place over the rest of the US (maybe more controlled and more spread out). But remember you can't put this virus back in the box if you don't like what you find. The only real chance was to never open it.*

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Observer said:

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Auto acidents is responsible for ~ 40,000 death each year in the US and another ~ 20,000 to 30,000 to seasonal flu. These deaths are not concentrated to just older population as COVID-19. Perhaps we should shut down the nation to prevent these automobile and seasonal flue related deaths. Then we crank up the money printing machine to give everyone $2,000 month for universal income - nobody needs to work.

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Moxley said:

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Most of these jobs are manual labor, correct? I assume these people are not morbidly overweight and are relatively young. If that's the case, it would stand in line with what we know about the disease. Also stands to reason why vast majority of the sailors on the Roosevelt did just fine.

I've been working with Covid patients for weeks, and one thing sticks out to me more than anything: The vast majority of the people we are hospitalizing are obese. Not just a little overweight, but big bellies. A huge percentage of them are also diabetic. I don't know if this is necessarily true everywhere. The New York data seems to indicate a much higher rate of hospitalization for diabetics and people with heart disease, both of those tend to coincide with obesity as well.

It's possible the weight/health status of the people working in this meat plant just put them at lower risk of having significant symptoms.

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cone said:

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here's where i am left in the middle thinking both sides are crazy

- one side saying **** your stupid masks and that would couldn't possibly test enough to do anything with regard to targeted quarantine

- the other side saying we can't possibly cordon off the most vulnerable in the society and it's not worth even trying

WHY NOT WALK AND CHEW BUBBLE GUM

the defeatism is what's most ridiculous. give it a go.

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cone said:

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do you think the proximity and density of NYC is going to be repeated across America?

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Observer said:

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Auto acidents is responsible for ~ 40,000 death each year in the US and another ~ 20,000 to 30,000 to seasonal flu. These deaths are not concentrated to just older population as COVID-19. Perhaps we should shut down the nation to prevent these automobile and seasonal flue related deaths. Then we crank up the money printing machine to give everyone $2,000 month for universal income - nobody needs to work.

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