wet blanket...summer heat is no help.

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Aggie95
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9:10a, 5/10/20
AG
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/05/08/study-pours-cold-water-on-hopes-that-warm-weather-will-defeat-covid-19.html

so many different studies/opinions..

IMO, not many places that have or had warm climate so far have great healthcare systems.
I will continue to hold out hope that the southern US with high heat/humidity will see a positive impact.
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Sq 17
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9:49a, 5/10/20
We will know soon because it is already hot in AZ and has been hot for 2 weeks
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Keegan99
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9:56a, 5/10/20
AG
If the question is between regression analysis with questionable government data and unlimited confounding factors vs controlled laboratory experiments, I'll go with controlled laboratory experiments.

Quote:
Bryan shared a slide summarising the major findings of an experiment carried out at the National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center in Maryland.

On nonporous surfaces such as stainless steel, the new coronavirus takes 18 hours to lose half its strength in a dark, low-humidity environment, Bryan said.

In a high-humidity environment, that half-life dropped to six hours, and when the virus was exposed to high humidity and sunlight, the half-life dropped to two minutes, he said.

Researchers found a similar effect with the coronavirus that was suspended in the air - simulating the coughing or sneezing that often spreads the disease. In a dark room, the virus maintained half its strength for an hour.

But when exposed to sunlight, it lost half its strength in 90 seconds, Bryan said."


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/sunlight-humidity-kill-coronavirus-fastest-scientists-200424065853466.html
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Pasquale Liucci
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10:24a, 5/10/20
AG
There is a stark contrast so far above/below the 35 parallel in the US. Correlation =/= causation but outside of Louisiana the difference is significant.
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Bruce Almighty
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11:48a, 5/10/20
AG
Heat doesn't kill the flu either, people get it all year round, but there are a lot of factors involved for the flu slowing down during the warmer months. It doesn't help that the entire world is staying indoors.
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Sq 17
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In reply to Pasquale Liucci • 12:03p, 5/10/20
pretty sure Albany GA would also be considered an exception to the 35 parrallel theory
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texan12
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In reply to Keegan99 • 12:07p, 5/10/20
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texan12
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In reply to Aggie95 • 12:10p, 5/10/20
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Strike One
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1:39p, 5/10/20
Either way, I'm betting that the normal head and humidity we get in Central Texas will slow it down big time. Let's get rid of these recent cool/cold fronts and get out normal heat and humidity back!
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Not a Bot
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1:55p, 5/10/20
AG
"Heat" isn't what causes viruses to spread less in summer months. It is UV light, humidity, and fewer people cooped up together inside for extended periods of time. Vitamin D production also likely has a role. People, particularly old people, tend to get out more when the weather is better.

If you are on a humid beach with a breeze on a sunny day, those droplets are going to drop from the air faster, get spread out and the UV light is going to quickly take care of them. It doesn't mean you theoretically can't get sick if you are in prolonged contact right next to someone who has the virus, but it is less likely.
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Enrico Pallazzo
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2:00p, 5/10/20
Clean, dry blanket - title is wrong. Summer will absolutely help with this a lot.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to Aggie95 • 2:16p, 5/10/20
AG
Aggie95 said:
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/05/08/study-pours-cold-water-on-hopes-that-warm-weather-will-defeat-covid-19.html

so many different studies/opinions..

IMO, not many places that have or had warm climate so far have great healthcare systems.
I will continue to hold out hope that the southern US with high heat/humidity will see a positive impact.
Live in Panama and the health care system here is pretty decent, and the tropical climate hasn't seemed to be much of a help stopping the spread of this thing. It has seemed to pretty easily spread where I'm at, so I've been skeptical since March watching what is taking place here in the Tropics to give much credence to articles hoping summer heat in and of itself would be a game changer. I live in a place that is 90 degrees, 80% humidity year-round and people traveling into Panama from the U.S. and Europe brought in the gift of COVID in early March and it has been spreading merrily along here ever since.
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Keegan99
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 2:28p, 5/10/20
AG
Whatever benefit heat and humidity confer is probably negated by density (nearly 8k per square mile in Panama City) and living conditions.

But Panama as a country is only reporting about 250 deaths, which is pretty small for a country of nearly 5MM with a dense metro area. No idea how accurate those fatality figures are, however.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to Keegan99 • 3:01p, 5/10/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
Whatever benefit heat and humidity confer is probably negated by density (nearly 8k per square mile in Panama City) and living conditions.

But Panama as a country is only reporting about 250 deaths, which is pretty small for a country of nearly 5MM with a dense metro area. No idea how accurate those fatality figures are, however.
Got our first case on March 8th and they immediately closed all schools and banned group events the very next day. And then around March 15th as the number of positive cases really started growing, they completely locked us down. Nobody is allowed to leave their home on weekends at all. No jogging even. On weekdays, you only get two 2-hour time slots per week to go grocery shopping, depending on last digit of your ID card. So, for example, I'm only allowed to be caught out on the street from 7:30 am - 9:30 am Tuesday and Thursday.

And that very strict lockdown has now been going on for 2-months. So the 250 deaths you are seeing is with the full lockdown Hammer they brought quickly down on the population.

I do get to sit outside on my terrace every day and enjoy the tropical weather, so I guess could be worse. Could be stuck in some cold European country not allowed to leave my house. Given a choice, I'll take a warm place to go through that.

Every night, we get an update from the Ministry of Health and they provide all the data - total hospitalized, total in ICU, total tests and new cases, total recovered, total deaths, etc.

There are signs of light at the end of the tunnel, they have definitely seemed to have 'flattened the curve' with their Hammer approach, and there has been building momentum/talk going on of slowly re-opening soon, similar to what you've seen going on else where.
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Keegan99
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 3:05p, 5/10/20
AG
Then spread has been intra-family, which we know is the primary transmission vector.

You're not going to see the muted effect of heat and humidity on community spread if there's no community interaction.
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96AustinAg
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3:14p, 5/10/20
AG
I don't think I am going too far out on a limb by theorizing that most of the person-to-person transmission is occurring indoors - thus summer vs winter isn't going to have a huge impact.
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B-1 83
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In reply to 96AustinAg • 3:32p, 5/10/20
AG
96AustinAg said:
I don't think I am going too far out on a limb by theorizing that most of the person-to-person transmission is occurring indoors - thus summer vs winter isn't going to have a huge impact.
You stop with that logical talk!
Chloroquine doesn't work........until it does.
Sunshine, warm temps, and humidity don't kill it......until it does.

There are honestly people in this forum who seemingly wish these things don't have an impact.
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Enrico Pallazzo
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In reply to 96AustinAg • 3:57p, 5/10/20
96AustinAg said:
I don't think I am going too far out on a limb by theorizing that most of the person-to-person transmission is occurring indoors - thus summer vs winter isn't going to have a huge impact.


Flu is passed the same way. It just magically dissipates? Conditions that come with summer help beat it back and cv will be the same.
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96AustinAg
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4:03p, 5/10/20
AG
Flu and colds don't spread as much during warmer seasons because people aren't confined together indoors as much, at least that's the predominant theory I've seen. This should be no different, assuming people are allowed to go outdoors more and still practice good hygiene.
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terradactylexpress
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In reply to B-1 83 • 4:13p, 5/10/20
There are zero people on here who wish this **** to continue. Zero.

There are people in here who would like to see scientific proof rather than opinions or hopes
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JTA1029
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4:45p, 5/10/20
AG
If heat and humidity didnt have an effect then this thing would be ravaging across Asia and Africa and, if it's the doomsdayer our media has repeatedly told us it is, then we would/should be talking about the hundreds of thousands or millions of deaths in impoverished countries.

Yet here we are, trying to draw lines on our own borders to decide if heat and humidity play a role in transmission.

That should tell you everything you need to know. Lagos would be a nightmare but yet we hear nothing?
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Keegan99
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In reply to JTA1029 • 4:53p, 5/10/20
AG
Africa is very, very young.

The median age in Nigeria is EIGHTEEN, and without a large cohort of those 70+, you won't see a swell of deaths.
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RGV AG
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 6:57p, 5/10/20
AG
I really lament the situation in Panama due to the fact that Tocumen is basically one of the two hubs for big time connecting aviation in CentAm. And there tends to be a lot of mixing and mingling in Panama City. With SAL being the other city. Both SAL and PTY are shut the hell down, and the effects economically for the rest of the countries is going to be brutal in my opinion.

Panama probably has the most logical thinking government in CentAm, maybe SAL too with the new guy, and I am interested to really see how things continue to transpire. My friends and contacts in Nicaragua say it is a big mess there, with a lot of people dying and those that are coming down with the virus being told by the paramilary's and police to keep their mouth shut and stay at home. CR has been kinds quiet, but that is a law abiding country, so maybe the lockdown there is also making good.

I haven't heard too much out of GUA, but Honduras is kinda jacked.

I spent 10 out of the last 13 years living and working in Nicaragua and or some of the other countries and am really concerned about the region.
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agforlife97
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In reply to terradactylexpress • 7:12p, 5/10/20
AG
terradactylexpress said:
There are zero people on here who wish this **** to continue. Zero.

There are people in here who would like to see scientific proof rather than opinions or hopes


Well all other corona viruses are killed by heat humidity and UV light so there's that.
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to Pasquale Liucci • 10:17p, 5/10/20
AG
Lester Freamon said:
There is a stark contrast so far above/below the 35 parallel in the US. Correlation =/= causation but outside of Louisiana the difference is significant.


There's also the Vitamin D theory along with that.
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to 96AustinAg • 10:21p, 5/10/20
AG
96AustinAg said:
I don't think I am going too far out on a limb by theorizing that most of the person-to-person transmission is occurring indoors - thus summer vs winter isn't going to have a huge impact.


Counterpoint: people spend more time indoor during winter.
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Pasquale Liucci
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 10:24p, 5/10/20
AG
Yes, absolutely agree. Think it's an intriguing data point.
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UTExan
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10:59p, 5/10/20
I don't buy that the virus can remain viable in a hot, dry climate: it just seems counterintuitive. Arizona and Utah, where the population has been generally good about social distancing will be tests this summer as the temperature ranges into the 100s.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
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tysker
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 11:10p, 5/10/20
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
Keegan99 said:
Whatever benefit heat and humidity confer is probably negated by density (nearly 8k per square mile in Panama City) and living conditions.

But Panama as a country is only reporting about 250 deaths, which is pretty small for a country of nearly 5MM with a dense metro area. No idea how accurate those fatality figures are, however.
Got our first case on March 8th and they immediately closed all schools and banned group events the very next day. And then around March 15th as the number of positive cases really started growing, they completely locked us down. Nobody is allowed to leave their home on weekends at all. No jogging even. On weekdays, you only get two 2-hour time slots per week to go grocery shopping, depending on last digit of your ID card. So, for example, I'm only allowed to be caught out on the street from 7:30 am - 9:30 am Tuesday and Thursday.

And that very strict lockdown has now been going on for 2-months. So the 250 deaths you are seeing is with the full lockdown Hammer they brought quickly down on the population.

I do get to sit outside on my terrace every day and enjoy the tropical weather, so I guess could be worse. Could be stuck in some cold European country not allowed to leave my house. Given a choice, I'll take a warm place to go through that.

Every night, we get an update from the Ministry of Health and they provide all the data - total hospitalized, total in ICU, total tests and new cases, total recovered, total deaths, etc.

There are signs of light at the end of the tunnel, they have definitely seemed to have 'flattened the curve' with their Hammer approach, and there has been building momentum/talk going on of slowly re-opening soon, similar to what you've seen going on else where.
After two months of very strict lockdown how and where are people getting exposed/infected? If the strict lockdown was having an effect after two months shouldnt Panama be seeing new cases approach zero?
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AggieJ2002
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1:45a, 5/11/20
AG
This story seems to be a bit of a wet blanket as well ... was hoping a lot higher percentage would have the antibodies.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29158392/few-positive-coronavirus-tests-mlb-employees
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Aston94
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 7:01a, 5/11/20
AG
I don't want to play scientist, but when you are making everyone stay indoors aren't you taking away any advantage of heat and humidity.
Climate is largely irrelevant if everyone is living indoors exclusively.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to tysker • 7:09a, 5/11/20
AG
tysker said:
Pumpkinhead said:
Keegan99 said:
Whatever benefit heat and humidity confer is probably negated by density (nearly 8k per square mile in Panama City) and living conditions.

But Panama as a country is only reporting about 250 deaths, which is pretty small for a country of nearly 5MM with a dense metro area. No idea how accurate those fatality figures are, however.
Got our first case on March 8th and they immediately closed all schools and banned group events the very next day. And then around March 15th as the number of positive cases really started growing, they completely locked us down. Nobody is allowed to leave their home on weekends at all. No jogging even. On weekdays, you only get two 2-hour time slots per week to go grocery shopping, depending on last digit of your ID card. So, for example, I'm only allowed to be caught out on the street from 7:30 am - 9:30 am Tuesday and Thursday.

And that very strict lockdown has now been going on for 2-months. So the 250 deaths you are seeing is with the full lockdown Hammer they brought quickly down on the population.

I do get to sit outside on my terrace every day and enjoy the tropical weather, so I guess could be worse. Could be stuck in some cold European country not allowed to leave my house. Given a choice, I'll take a warm place to go through that.

Every night, we get an update from the Ministry of Health and they provide all the data - total hospitalized, total in ICU, total tests and new cases, total recovered, total deaths, etc.

There are signs of light at the end of the tunnel, they have definitely seemed to have 'flattened the curve' with their Hammer approach, and there has been building momentum/talk going on of slowly re-opening soon, similar to what you've seen going on else where.
After two months of very strict lockdown how and where are people getting exposed/infected? If the strict lockdown was having an effect after two months shouldnt Panama be seeing new cases approach zero?


Here are all the detailed time-charts and stats of Panama if anyone is interested.

https://datastudio.google.com/reporting/1MEhX6TrZjhZhT8Lws5MGSRBRA4B6FOSQ/page/bNGIB

In Spanish but fairly easy to imterpret.

I mostly focus on the blue and purple-ish bar charts, which are number of ICU and non-ICU hospital beds occupied with COVID-19 patients each day. They finally got that R0 thing under 1 apparently awhile back and you can see the ICU and other bed occupancies start to gradually decrease.

You can see that of the 244 Deaths thus far, about 25% have been people younger that 60 years old. 75% over 60.

In terms of how does some spread continue to happen even under a strict lockdown, you still have essential businesses and production plants with workers operating, you still have People having to go to hospitals and grocery stores, you still have people who break quarantine, everyday the police ticket a bunch of people. Barring somehow putting the entire population into a coma for a month, there is no way of course to quickly completely stop spread.
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Sq 17
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7:20a, 5/11/20
what else is different about summer ? no school ,
what is the first mitigation technique usually employed cancel school
even with school cancelled the Covid is spreading slowly.
Given the infection rates and spread at meat packing plants and prisons.
A school cafeteria is not significantly different from a break room at packing plant
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Keegan99
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In reply to Sq 17 • 7:33a, 5/11/20
AG
Sq 17 said:
what else is different about summer ? no school ,
what is the first mitigation technique usually employed cancel school
even with school cancelled the Covid is spreading slowly.
Given the infection rates and spread at meat packing plants and prisons.
A school cafeteria is not significantly different from a break room at packing plant


Except it is filled with children, not adults.

And Sweden has shown that children are not transmission vectors.

Additionally, a study in Australia traced contacts of infected children that had attended school and found almost no transmission had occurred at school.

http://ncirs.org.au/covid-19-in-schools

Quote:
In NSW, from March to mid-April 2020, 18 individuals (9 students and 9 staff) from 15 schools were confirmed as COVID-19 cases; all of these individuals had an opportunity to transmit the COVID-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2) to others in their schools.
735 students and 128 staff were close contacts of these initial 18 cases.
One child from a primary school and one child from a high school may have contracted COVID-19 from the initial cases at their schools.
No teacher or staff member contracted COVID-19 from any of the initial school cases.
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beerad12man
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7:43a, 5/11/20
AG
Quote:
In terms of how does some spread continue to happen even under a strict lockdown, you still have essential businesses and production plants with workers operating, you still have People having to go to hospitals and grocery stores, you still have people who break quarantine, everyday the police ticket a bunch of people. Barring somehow putting the entire population into a coma for a month, there is no way of course to quickly completely stop spread.

Exactly. This means that what Panama is doing is not effective. They are cutting off their nose to spite their face. Making decision makers feel better about themselves because they think they are taking precautions. Disallowing outdoor activities has always been the absolute craziest thing to me that has come from this. People need it. For exercise, health, morale, all kinds of reasons. And this pretty much proves it. Like you said, people get this at work or the grocery store(or some other indoor place) and bring it back home. The numbers would likely be roughly the same even if all outdoor activities were allowed.

I'm not saying there is a zero percent chance you can get this on a hike in the jungle, on the golf course, or at the beach, but the numbers are almost assuredly very low and by no means worth these kinds of measures.
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