The Unpredictability Factor

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SkiMo
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9:04a, 5/14/20
AG
What are the chances that researchers will discover who is likely to have the most severe cases of this virus prior to a vaccine coming out? Besides the age/comorbidity deal.

I think the biggest driver in those who are fearful is the Russian Roulette feel to it all. Am I going to be in the 1% statistic even though I'm relatively young and healthy?

There has to be something genetic behind all this. Blood type, etc. So is it possible that this is discovered prior to a vaccine and we mitigate it that way and help people feel more comfortable going out freely into the world?

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beerad12man
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9:51a, 5/14/20
AG
Technically it's not 1% for the relatively young and healthy. If the total number(according to reveille and some others) is still expected to be 0.3-0.7% that means for a younger, relatively healthy person of working age it's even less than 0.3-0.7. Likely approaching flu levels of 0.1%. For all intents and purposes, the only difference between this and the flu for those under 60 is that it spreads quicker due in large part to a lack of vaccines/immunity so there's more of a chance you get it due to. Once you get either, your chances of dying seem to be very similar for a 20, 30, 40, or even 50 something.

So if we approached all life like this, it would be a rough go of it. Am I that 1 in 1000 (maybe even less) 33 year olds that die from coronavirus? Or that 1 in 1000 that die from the regular flu? Or that 1 in 10,000 that die from car accidents?

When you add it all up, it ends up being 100/100 that die. It's the threat of immediate danger that scares some, obviously. But for all intents and purposes, worrying about this being the way you die is a very minor worry for the vast majority of us.

I personally choose to live life knowing the slight extra risk it poses. I still want to travel the world. Have a job. Play golf. Hang out with friends/family. And quite frankly, this virus may never leave us according to the WHO. We may never have a vaccine. We may or may not ever get herd immunity. So it's up to each invididuals timeline on when they choose to go about life again. Some are just sitting by hoping it gets eradicated and/or we come up with a cure/vaccine or at least a further understanding of it to reduce deaths. But none of those are guarantees.
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Proposition Joe
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10:01a, 5/14/20
I think most understand the "new normal" is going to be the acceptance of risk that this thing could get ya.

But I think a lot of people are still giving it a few weeks or a month so that the data settles a bit more and once can asses just how big that risk is.

For whatever reason the mass amount of conflicting data the first few months of this thing has made it difficult for the average human to gauge their risk. As a species we are perfectly fine with risk, but as a species we also are really adverse to not having an idea of how much risk.

I know that when I get in my car every day for a year there is a % chance I will get killed. At 1/50th of a percent chance? Cool. It beats walking. At 50% of a chance? Yeah I'll walk. At an early data range of 1/50th of 1% to 1%... Well I'll wait until there's just a little more data.
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BowSowy
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10:04a, 5/14/20
AG
I am not a scientist or doctor but my WAG is that a lot of the variance you see has to do with the viral load received initially (outside of age/co-morbidities).
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cone
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 10:04a, 5/14/20
AG
just assume that it's 1% IFR - sounds grim. it is grim.

but let the French study about relatively risk based solely on age do the rest of the lift

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SkiMo
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 10:08a, 5/14/20
AG
That's kind of where I was going with this. I can pretty well predict that the flu isn't going to kill me...though I've never had it in my life and I'm 40. Maybe I have a strong immune system?

But this thing apparently spreads like wildfire with no way of knowing yet if you're going to be asymptomatic or end of up in the hospital. Very hard to calculate risk.

Do I want to go on vacation? Hell yeah! Do I want to fly to Europe or South America, contract covid on the plane then try to fight off this virus in a foreign country in a hotel room or hospital? No.

Right now I just don't feel comfortable with the lack of data, and that's what's going to keep me social distancing for the foreseeable future.
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cone
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10:25a, 5/14/20
AG
the sad reality is 1) this thing seems to attack older populations at a higher rate and 2) kills older populations at a higher rate

it's reasonable to think, especially in places with significant outbreaks already like NY, that the deaths are being frontloaded
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to SkiMo • 10:38a, 5/14/20
Yup, we'll never have perfect data but we're just now seeming to get over the hump of having massive amounts of conflicting data. With the structured openings in many states, there will be thousands of guinea pigs that will give us even more data. I'm fine with my social life lagging that data by 2-3 weeks. I don't need chips and queso served to me that badly, and the same friends I would have a drink with at the bar I can sit out in my front yard 6 feet away and have a drink with. Let the masses give me more data.
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beerad12man
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In reply to SkiMo • 10:55a, 5/14/20
AG
SkiMo said:
That's kind of where I was going with this. I can pretty well predict that the flu isn't going to kill me...though I've never had it in my life and I'm 40. Maybe I have a strong immune system?

But this thing apparently spreads like wildfire with no way of knowing yet if you're going to be asymptomatic or end of up in the hospital. Very hard to calculate risk.

Do I want to go on vacation? Hell yeah! Do I want to fly to Europe or South America, contract covid on the plane then try to fight off this virus in a foreign country in a hotel room or hospital? No.

Right now I just don't feel comfortable with the lack of data, and that's what's going to keep me social distancing for the foreseeable future.
I get that. I'm sure many think that way. I'd rather not get it than do, so I'm not going to do stupid things that greatly increase my risk. I'm not going to do any international traveling the next few months even if it was allowed.

But again, your risk probably isn't much different than the flu if you are 20, 30, 40, or even 50. Now, if you are 65+, it becomes much more dangerous. This is just more in the headlines and talked about for a 30/40 year old. If we recorded every 30 something year old that ended up in the hospital with the flu and/or all other types of illnesses, someone paying too much attention may never want to leave their room.
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ETFan
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 11:04a, 5/14/20
Proposition Joe said:
Yup, we'll never have perfect data but we're just now seeming to get over the hump of having massive amounts of conflicting data. With the structured openings in many states, there will be thousands of guinea pigs that will give us even more data. I'm fine with my social life lagging that data by 2-3 weeks. I don't need chips and queso served to me that badly, and the same friends I would have a drink with at the bar I can sit out in my front yard 6 feet away and have a drink with. Let the masses give me more data.
Yeah, I can keep BBQing at home for now while treatment and understanding of the virus advances. We don't know the long-term consequences of infection. They may be nothing and if we're all going to get it, it may not matter, but it's not much effort from me to skip going to Desperados a few more weeks.

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SkiMo
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In reply to beerad12man • 11:10a, 5/14/20
AG
beerad12man said:
SkiMo said:
That's kind of where I was going with this. I can pretty well predict that the flu isn't going to kill me...though I've never had it in my life and I'm 40. Maybe I have a strong immune system?

But this thing apparently spreads like wildfire with no way of knowing yet if you're going to be asymptomatic or end of up in the hospital. Very hard to calculate risk.

Do I want to go on vacation? Hell yeah! Do I want to fly to Europe or South America, contract covid on the plane then try to fight off this virus in a foreign country in a hotel room or hospital? No.

Right now I just don't feel comfortable with the lack of data, and that's what's going to keep me social distancing for the foreseeable future.
I get that. I'm sure many think that way. I'd rather not get it than do, so I'm not going to do stupid things that greatly increase my risk. I'm not going to do any international traveling the next few months even if it was allowed.

But again, your risk probably isn't much different than the flu if you are 20, 30, 40, or even 50. Now, if you are 65+, it becomes much more dangerous. This is just more in the headlines and talked about for a 30/40 year old. If we recorded every 30 something year old that ended up in the hospital with the flu and/or all other types of illnesses, someone paying too much attention may never want to leave their room.
I'd like to hear from people who have had both covid AND the actual flu (not the one everyone says they have when they're sick for 3 days) to see how they compare with each other. I've heard the actual flu is a *****...is the severity much different than covid?
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to SkiMo • 11:35a, 5/14/20
From what I've heard... it depends.

Just like we have so many people with mild/nothing-burger covid cases, there are cases that are obviosuly far worse than "just the flu".

Had a friend that he, his mother and daughter had it. Incredibly fit, late 30's. Mother was probably equivalent of a bad cold or the flu. Daughter wasn't impacted at all. He never went to the hospital, but it knocked him on his ass more than any sickness/flu ever had, and this is the type of guy that is very much the "aint skeered" type.

But ultimately I think most of America is fine with possibly contracting it and getting absolutely knocked on their ass. They are just waiting for a few more batches of solid, non-conflicting data that shows the % chances of it doing much more than just putting them on their ass.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to beerad12man • 11:38a, 5/14/20
AG
beerad12man said:
Technically it's not 1% for the relatively young and healthy. If the total number(according to reveille and some others) is still expected to be 0.3-0.7% that means for a younger, relatively healthy person of working age it's even less than 0.3-0.7. Likely approaching flu levels of 0.1%. For all intents and purposes, the only difference between this and the flu for those under 60 is that it spreads quicker due in large part to a lack of vaccines/immunity so there's more of a chance you get it due to. Once you get either, your chances of dying seem to be very similar for a 20, 30, 40, or even 50 something.

So if we approached all life like this, it would be a rough go of it. Am I that 1 in 1000 (maybe even less) 33 year olds that die from coronavirus? Or that 1 in 1000 that die from the regular flu? Or that 1 in 10,000 that die from car accidents?

When you add it all up, it ends up being 100/100 that die. It's the threat of immediate danger that scares some, obviously. But for all intents and purposes, worrying about this being the way you die is a very minor worry for the vast majority of us.

I personally choose to live life knowing the slight extra risk it poses. I still want to travel the world. Have a job. Play golf. Hang out with friends/family. And quite frankly, this virus may never leave us according to the WHO. We may never have a vaccine. We may or may not ever get herd immunity. So it's up to each invididuals timeline on when they choose to go about life again. Some are just sitting by hoping it gets eradicated and/or we come up with a cure/vaccine or at least a further understanding of it to reduce deaths. But none of those are guarantees.
The huge issue with COVID is the infection rate and how contagious it appears to be. So even really small percentage meant a large number over a short period of time...that was the concern. Several magnitudes order more contagious than the flu apparently and obviously you are not going to see tens of millions of people infected by 'car accidents' over just a few months. Car accidents are not infectious diseases.

That was the 'flatten the curve' thing...which everybody seems to understand. Banning large group gatherings with hundreds to thousands of people in attendance obviously made a ton sense, as did at least some level of social distancing measures. Now, somehow there has to be a balance between curve flattening and re-opening the economy, which presumably should vary from region to region in terms of their own situation, and you can certainly argue that some closure measures went to far for certain locations, and this thing is now as much as political issue as a health one. Its a huge mess.
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