As thing continues I worry more about this. While I agreed with the initial lockdowns in March I now worry about places like California that are seemingly perpetuating the harsh mitigation measures. Theoretically, there is going to be a surge in preventable illnesses and deaths, to a greater degree in underdeveloped countries like Africa. Illnesses such as malaria, measles, HIV, TB. And obviously cardiovascular disease, stroke, cancer etc here in USA (or even measles with lack of vaccinations).

Would be curious as to models of projected mortality differences of protracted total lockdown with deaths from traditional diseases compared with COVID-19. My guess is for a protracted lockdown the traditional disease death rates would exceed COVID-19 deaths.

Food for discussion.


https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-covid-19-shouldnt-make-us-forget-other-major-infectious-diseases/a-53415338

I have said from the start that "the cure" could end up being way worse than the disease itself.

FrecklesDad said:

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I have said from the start that "the cure" could end up being way worse than the disease itself.

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It already is and has been.

Curious to see outcomes on OP's post over time though.

Earlier in the year, when Trump stated that cure worse than the disease, i kind winced at the thought but now, i am kind of reevaluating the whole stance of this posture.

I am tired and sad, how this event has unraveled...

I just don't see the end in sight.

Yes, I am in an oil and gas related industry and the prospects of finding a job right now are pretty grim.

Sisyphus said:

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Why did you bring up California and mortality in the developing world in the same topic? All but a few of the CA counties have moved on to phase 2 of the re-opening and people in CA have always been able to see their doctor, go to the grocery and hardware stores, go outside for exercise, etc. With the exception of domestic violence I wouldn't expect a higher incidence of mortality for most causes of death. Probably most other increases would be balanced by decreases in things like traffic deaths.

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Because what the media reports is LA county saying they are seriously considering another 3 months of lockdown, California universities saying no fall campuses, california university athletics already declaring they won't play this fall. That's why Marcus points California out. It's also why Cone keeps questioning why a remessaging of the risk areas and planning around those areas isn't happening.

To Marcus' point, if the messaging continues to be we need to stay locked down, people will still be afraid to go to their doctor regardless of if the can go. There are probably people who have had heart issues who haven't gone to their doctor who probably should have because of being afraid to catch COVID. At some point the messaging has to change, otherwise it may be hindering people from getting issues checked out that they normally would.

It's also because they are now "requiring" all citizens to wear masks.

I think Chinas under reported numbers and Italy's demographics really skewed how we saw this disease. Both of those things combined made this look especially virulent and deadly. I think we are seeing that it's not as bad as we first thought. Unfortunately it will still kill a lot of people, and I don't want those to be my parents. But we need to re-evaluate Our mitigation efforts with what we are starting to find out. It is far more widespread than we knew and the death rates, while still tragic, are no where what they appeared to be in March.

I just wished we had solid testing in place to make most folks feel confident those who have it can be identified quickly and taken out of the population.

To even consider any kind of 100% lockdown from this point forward is insane and foolish. Not having school in the fall is unfathomable. Phase opening until completely open within the next Few weeks to a month or so is where we should be.

I've read reports from doctors all over the country stating that they have seen far fewer patients than usual for conditions such as heart disease, diabetes and blood pressure. It stands to reason that something is keeping those patients away. Considering how many of them are also elderly and high risk, I can see why they'd stay home out of an excess of caution until it's too late.

I've read interviews with doctors talking about this. The article posted on this forum from the Dr. NYC community hospitals recently comes to mind where he talks about not seeing the more "normal" ER cases returning to the ER and wondering if those folks are getting care.

In addition several doctors on this forum have posted similar concerns including the OP.

I was talking to my dad about it, he survived a heart attack because he went into the ER because he didn't feel right. He survived testicular cancer because one of his testicles he noticed was sore getting dressed one morning and he didn't ignore it. His urologist told him if he had ignored it like most patients did it would most assuredly would have spread (this was in 1992). Dad didn't think he had cancer, he thought he had in his words, "a twisted nut." Hell the doctors didn't think he had cancer either because he was in his mid-40s which they said back then was pretty unusual.

Had this same conversation with him this past week. He wonders if he would be hesitant to go into a doctor today for either of those issues and it would have likely killed him. Its these scenarios that we've all heard...24 hours from dying. Hours from being too far gone but he/she came in and got the treatment they deserved.

I'm not even touching the mental health issues side of this thing, which I have to believe are significant and could manifest for years.