Not looking good, and they are backpedaling.
First reported by Telegraph UK, picked up by Fox News. Lots of bugs, inconsistent results, messy code, etc.
"Scientists from the University of Edinburgh have further claimed that it is impossible to reproduce the same results from the same data using the model. The team got different results when they used different machines, and even different results from the same machines."
"Models must be capable of passing the basic scientific test of producing the same results given the same initial set of parametersotherwise, there is simply no way of knowing whether they will be reliable," said Michael Bonsall, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Oxford University
A spokesperson for the Imperial College COVID19 Response Team said: "The U.K. Government has never relied on a single disease model to inform decision-making. As has been repeatedly stated, decision-making around lockdown was based on a consensus view of the scientific evidence, including several modelling studies by different academic groups."
"Epidemiology is not a branch of computer science and the conclusions around lockdown rely not on any mathematical model but on the scientific consensus that COVID-19 is a highly transmissible virus with an infection fatality ratio exceeding 0.5pc in the UK."
https://www.foxnews.com/world/imperial-college-britain-coronavirus-lockdown-buggy-mess-unreliable
First reported by Telegraph UK, picked up by Fox News. Lots of bugs, inconsistent results, messy code, etc.
"Scientists from the University of Edinburgh have further claimed that it is impossible to reproduce the same results from the same data using the model. The team got different results when they used different machines, and even different results from the same machines."
"Models must be capable of passing the basic scientific test of producing the same results given the same initial set of parametersotherwise, there is simply no way of knowing whether they will be reliable," said Michael Bonsall, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Oxford University
A spokesperson for the Imperial College COVID19 Response Team said: "The U.K. Government has never relied on a single disease model to inform decision-making. As has been repeatedly stated, decision-making around lockdown was based on a consensus view of the scientific evidence, including several modelling studies by different academic groups."
"Epidemiology is not a branch of computer science and the conclusions around lockdown rely not on any mathematical model but on the scientific consensus that COVID-19 is a highly transmissible virus with an infection fatality ratio exceeding 0.5pc in the UK."
https://www.foxnews.com/world/imperial-college-britain-coronavirus-lockdown-buggy-mess-unreliable
Mike Shaw - Class of '03