Lower death rates than expected...

1,947 Views | 6 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Complete Idiot
texaggie90
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AG
Not sure if this has been shared over here...been out of pocket a few days.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/28/863944333/antibody-tests-point-to-lower-death-rate-for-the-coronavirus-than-first-thought

" Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.

The evidence comes from tests that detect antibodies to the coronavirus in a person's blood rather than the virus itself.

The tests are finding large numbers of people in the U.S. who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.

"The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

That's in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person's body."
Keegan99
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AG
Sero studies from NY, CO, and FL peg the IFR in the 0.2-0.3% range, right in line with CDC estimates.

And I'd suggest that when NCHS all cause mortality is final, we will only see a small number of excess deaths when looking at a 40+ week window.

A huge portion of COVID deaths were people that were going to die soon anyway or would have already been dead in a stronger flu season.

beerad12man
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AG
Quote:

A huge portion of COVID deaths were people that were going to die soon anyway

I just posted this on facebook. A scary thing to say that will likely be met with backlash that I'm a heartless murderer, but when determining what's best for 329 million Americans? It absolutely has to drive your decision making.
DadHammer
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AG
beerad12man said:

Quote:

A huge portion of COVID deaths were people that were going to die soon anyway

I just posted this on facebook. A scary thing to say that will likely be met with backlash that I'm a heartless murderer, but when determining what's best for 329 million Americans? It absolutely has to drive your decision making.

They can scream all they want but it is a fact. I have seen the data backing that up myself from several sources.

People act like death never occurred before covid, it's ridiculous.
Complete Idiot
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What are we still arguing? Hasn't America been cautiously reopening, based on this data, since the end of April?
beerad12man
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AG
Not arguing anything. Re-confirming. More and more data = better. And despite what America is still doing, some still don't think it's right. Not necessarily on this board. But in general
Joe Exotic
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AG
Complete Idiot said:

What are we still arguing? Hasn't America been cautiously reopening, based on this data, since the end of April?


I think the reality is that we no longer need to do it cautiously
Complete Idiot
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Joe Exotic said:

Complete Idiot said:

What are we still arguing? Hasn't America been cautiously reopening, based on this data, since the end of April?


I think the reality is that we no longer need to do it cautiously
So not agreeing with the current plans in place. What needs to be immediately changed - no masks, restaurants at 100%, etc. Went on a Frio trip this past weekend and every cabin was full, lots of traffic through Austin and out through the HIll Country, so things are getting closer and closer to where we would all want to be. Have to keep an eye on new cases, hot spots, etc to keep as many people safe as possible but I like how things have been going since the end of April. More reliable and confirming data, countries opening back up, people feeling safer to be out and about, etc.

I think every step in the world wide decision making processes will be second guessed with hindsight but I do struggle with how much I would have felt safe doing differently from the beginning, with what was known at the time each decision was made. I guess I don't believe with the idea that nearly every worldwide country decided to use the situation to oppress their people, or that media alone forced all those countries to have implemented lockdowns. As someone who thinks the media DOES influence the populace, far too much, I even wondered if I was in a way manipulated into being too concerned. If I watched a daily website tracking flu deaths, and an article was written on every site every day discussing the oddities of influenza as far as random healthy kids and adults dying of it, would I be way more scared of the flu than I am otherwise? Possibly. Probably. So hyper attention, combined with a legitimate fear that it's inevitable that more deadly pandemics will eventually occur, possibly all combined for what in two years the world will decide was an overreaction. But having all the data in hindsight is different than the CHinese and very preliminary Iran/Italy/Spain info we had in March.

Certainly will be a three month period I'll never forget.
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