This week CDC received 17 individual national forecasts.

This week's national ensemble forecast suggests that there will likely be between 124,000 and 140,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by July 4th.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html

Fivethirtyeight examined several of the models being used by the CDC.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/

It seems like its almost gone here in Virginia. We are in the single digits in deaths per day after peaking around 50. Hospitalizations are as low as they have been since late march and the number of cases is declining even with increased testing. In recent days almost all of the deaths have been from nursing homes. Im starting to wonder if the virus has weakened because it was such a sharp turn of events. The numbers went from stable to just plummeting down.

Lots of good data here:

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

To really see if the second wave theory is true you need to look at places in Europe and certain areas in the United States to see if a spike occurs.

Lester Freamon said:

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It's almost like there is some subset of the population that is particularly vulnerable that this tore through like wildfire and the rest of folks are much more resistant...

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Yeah Virginia is approaching 70% of deaths from nursing homes and assisted living settings.

Windy City Ag said:

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I have struggled with why Dallas and Houston would somehow be behind the curve but still prone to the scenarios experienced by New York or San Fran. The first case in Dallas was just nine days after the first case in NYC.

Both cities lack the sort of widespread public transportation and urban density that made NYC such a super-spreader haven. That being said, We have plenty of dumbasses that ran around, travelled, came home and spent time with family, etc. We had thousands of workplaces that could have served as spreading environments and we had nowhere near the spread as seen in other environments.

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Houston and Dallas are definitely more spread out that Houston, so it was probably always going to spread a little slower here. However, we shut things down so early in Texas hardly any of the population as a percentage got COVID. It does make sense that numbers are going to go up, and there is the possibility we could get into trouble if it does go unabated, mainly because we don't actually know how fast it will spread in these cities.

That being said, I think the shutdown bought us time and the hospital systems are much more prepared. I don't think we're going to run into the same problems as NYC going forward.

Yep. Based on what I have heard from some of the fine folks on here combating this thing on the front lines, it is almost uncanny how much severe this is in the SNF type populations.

I think the 55% number is probably the floor. In Virginia they consider some assisted living facilities "congregate settings" instead of long term care facilities. So if you only look at those that are categorized as long term care facilities you are going to miss a good chunk of elderly people that died in senior communities that aren't considered nursing homes.

Beat40 said:

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Windy City Ag said:

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I have struggled with why Dallas and Houston would somehow be behind the curve but still prone to the scenarios experienced by New York or San Fran. The first case in Dallas was just nine days after the first case in NYC.

Both cities lack the sort of widespread public transportation and urban density that made NYC such a super-spreader haven. That being said, We have plenty of dumbasses that ran around, travelled, came home and spent time with family, etc. We had thousands of workplaces that could have served as spreading environments and we had nowhere near the spread as seen in other environments.

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Houston and Dallas are definitely more spread out that Houston, so it was probably always going to spread a little slower here. However, we shut things down so early in Texas hardly any of the population as a percentage got COVID. It does make sense that numbers are going to go up, and there is the possibility we could get into trouble if it does go unabated, mainly because we don't actually know how fast it will spread in these cities.

That being said, I think the shutdown bought us time and the hospital systems are much more prepared. I don't think we're going to run into the same problems as NYC going forward.

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I would agree and I don't think we will have a similar problem as New York.

Jmiller said:

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We will likely pass the low projection in thenext few days as we just passed 120,000 yesterday and there have been spikes in confirmed cases and hospitalizations around the country.

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Worldometer has the USA at 120,691 as of last night.

Jmiller said:

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We will likely pass the low projection in thenext few days as we just passed 120,000 yesterday and there have been spikes in confirmed cases and hospitalizations around the country.

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How do hospitalizations nationwide compare to those two weeks ago?

What are the figures?

Jmiller said:

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We will likely pass the low projection in thenext few days as we just passed 120,000 yesterday and there have been spikes in confirmed cases and hospitalizations around the country.

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Yeah, we might surpass the 140,000 at this rate, but I think we'll be on the higher end of the range (mid 130,000s). Certainly won't see our deaths continue to drop into July 4th.