1. The deaths data is reflecting infections that happened a month ago, before major re-openings. As you said, there is even a lag in the reporting. Only a couple states correct their deaths data to "day of death", NY is one of them.
2. I don't know how you can say definitively that we will be under 200 deaths per day soon, given the aforementioned fact that this is a backwards-looking statistic and the fact that the virus is clearly growing in some areas that did not have early outbreaks.
Sorry to be personal, but I remember when you definitively said that we were well past the peak of the virus and would have no more than 60,000 deaths total, when literally the 3 days prior to your statement had been the 3 highest days of deaths in the country. I don't know exactly what's going to happen, but as a math major I would hope that you could analyze things with a little bit of uncertainty. I like the way that
https://covid19-projections.com/ shows the cone of possibilities.
3. Our "rapid" decline is slower than most other developed countries who have encountered the virus, but thankfully it is steady. Hoping that our treatment and prevention improvements offset increasing cases in some areas, but also worried that so many people are declaring this over that they are doing obviously dumb things that will spread the virus, not just to young healthy people but also to the vulnerable.
This is a really cool graphic by the FT that shows how the burden of death of CV is shifting.
4. We are almost certainly under-counting death (one writeup:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-deaths/). The golden standard for death reconciliation is changes in all-cause death versus historical norms. Unfortunately, this data is not updated so quickly so the latest information we have for the US is backdated to May 9. That shows a similar decline from the peak.
