Initial COVID-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported

samurai_science

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https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2020/06/22/research/initial-covid-19-infection-rate-may-be-80-times-greater-originally

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McKinney Ag

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12:24a, 6/23/20

AG

"Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus' lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially," Silverman explained. "A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alternative explanation to the large number of deaths and overcrowding of hospitals we have seen in certain areas of the world"

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angus55

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In reply to McKinney Ag • 7:41a, 6/23/20

McKinney Ag said:
"Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus' lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially," Silverman explained. "A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alternative explanation to the large number of deaths and overcrowding of hospitals we have seen in certain areas of the world"

File that one under "No **** Sherlock"

We'll win this war, but we'll win it only by fighting and by showing the Germans that we've got more guts than they have, or ever will have. We're not going to just shoot the sons-of-b******, were going to rip out their living G*******d guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks. We're going to murder those lousy Hun c********** by the bushel-f****** basket. War is a bloody killing business. You've got to spill their blood or they will spill yours. Rip them up the belly. Shot them in the guts.

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909Ag2006

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7:49p, 6/23/20

AG

If it kills less people per infection, but infects way more people, and thus kills more people than expected by sheer numbers, is it really "less deadly" than anticipated?

"They weren't raiding a Girl Scout troop looking for overdue library books."

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beerad12man

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In reply to 909Ag2006 • 7:51p, 6/23/20

AG

Well, depends. On if you think it was going to be stopped in it's tracks or it's just getting there quicker.

Either way Id much rather take my chances it's less deadly with higher transmission than the other way around

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909Ag2006

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2:51p, 6/24/20

AG

Also, if it spreads 80 times faster than we thought, what does that mean for our ability to achieve herd immunity?

"They weren't raiding a Girl Scout troop looking for overdue library books."

SolidRockAg

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7:57p, 6/24/20

If it's 80x faster and we are at 7-10% doesn't that equal herd immunity already and the only reason we hear anything different than the flunks because they are blowing it up by actually showing numbers on tv. No one ever talks about the flu because it's always there every year