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Are other countries on the rise?
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Last: 5 yr ago by DTP02
yes
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Nothing remotely close to what is happening here
Wasn't that expected after we "flattened the curve"?
Do we need to flatten the curve again? Or are our hospitals managing?
To me these are the central questions that need to be asked and answered . . .
Do we need to flatten the curve again? Or are our hospitals managing?
To me these are the central questions that need to be asked and answered . . .
We aren't on the rise. Positive tests are on the rise. Big difference.
Cepe said:
Wasn't that expected after we "flattened the curve"?
Do we need to flatten the curve again? Or are our hospitals managing?
To me these are the central questions that need to be asked and answered . . .
When I left work this morning we were holding multiple ICU patients in the ER with no ICU bed available. Our Covid census is the highest it's ever been, by far. A significant portion of our staff is out sick. I'm being begged to work every day.
ORAggieFan said:
We aren't on the rise. Positive tests are on the rise. Big difference.
Can you explain the difference for the lay people who may not understand what you are getting at?
Don't look now, but Australia, lauded for their apparent early triumph, is seeing a rise in detected infections. Still small in terms of absolute numbers, but strong signs of community spread.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/07/888093075/melbourne-resumes-lockdown-as-covid-19-cases-surge
Almost as if this is seasonal and behaves very differently in different latitudes.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/07/888093075/melbourne-resumes-lockdown-as-covid-19-cases-surge
Almost as if this is seasonal and behaves very differently in different latitudes.
ORAggieFan said:
We aren't on the rise. Positive tests are on the rise. Big difference.
If our % positives are going up, aren't we going up?
Moxley said:ORAggieFan said:
We aren't on the rise. Positive tests are on the rise. Big difference.
Can you explain the difference for the lay people who may not understand what you are getting at?
In March and April we had way more people with it unable to get tests. Today, a combination of increased tests and contact tracing has way more getting it. 80% asymptomatic, which months ago likely never get tested. IHME has a estimate of total actual cases and you can see the peak was months ago.
Now, there are some hotspots that may be peaking, but the question has to do with the country.
Not if percent positives doesn't have an accurate denominator.
Are you counting all negative tests? We know many facilities are not.
Are you counting all patients screened and then not tested? We know that is not recorded anywhere.
Are you counting all negative tests? We know many facilities are not.
Are you counting all patients screened and then not tested? We know that is not recorded anywhere.
PJYoung said:ORAggieFan said:
We aren't on the rise. Positive tests are on the rise. Big difference.
If our % positives are going up, aren't we going up?
Not necessarily. Asymptotic found due to contact tracing could be a big reason. Here is what IHME projects as likely total cases.
I get what you're saying, and to an extent that is true In terms of community testing for less symptomatic cases. But it's also true that Covid related hospitalizations are way up (at least in Texas). It's not just due to increased testing, more people are getting seriously ill.
In late May we had the testing capacity to test anyone who came to us with symptoms. I think comparing the last two weeks of May to the situation now would be more appropriate. We almost closed our hospital Covid unit because we had no one to put in it. At one point we were down to just two patients with Covid in the hospital. Now we've had to open a new Covid floor because we ran out of beds on the other one. Most of these people are not just random positives coming in for other things, these are people who came in with symptoms of Covid. And I get with contact tracing we are testing a lot more of the contacts then we used to, so that does add into the total.
A lot of our current inpatients tested positive as outpatients and came in to the hospital several days later when symptoms became severe. I'm curious, since we retest on admit, if both tests are reported as separate positive cases. If so, we have double counted at least 10 cases at our hospital alone in the last week.
In late May we had the testing capacity to test anyone who came to us with symptoms. I think comparing the last two weeks of May to the situation now would be more appropriate. We almost closed our hospital Covid unit because we had no one to put in it. At one point we were down to just two patients with Covid in the hospital. Now we've had to open a new Covid floor because we ran out of beds on the other one. Most of these people are not just random positives coming in for other things, these are people who came in with symptoms of Covid. And I get with contact tracing we are testing a lot more of the contacts then we used to, so that does add into the total.
A lot of our current inpatients tested positive as outpatients and came in to the hospital several days later when symptoms became severe. I'm curious, since we retest on admit, if both tests are reported as separate positive cases. If so, we have double counted at least 10 cases at our hospital alone in the last week.
You're looking at it skewed to Texas. The question was about the country, hence my answer. As I said, some states are down. As a country, we're at about 25% of the peak cases we had. It's one of the reasons death are at about 20% of what they were.
Thank you for the first hand information. I think its great we can hear from the front lines and I know we are full at the moment.Moxley said:
I get what you're saying, and to an extent that is true In terms of community testing for less symptomatic cases. But it's also true that Covid related hospitalizations are way up (at least in Texas). It's not just due to increased testing, more people are getting seriously ill.
In late May we had the testing capacity to test anyone who came to us with symptoms. I think comparing the last two weeks of May to the situation now would be more appropriate. We almost closed our hospital Covid unit because we had no one to put in it. At one point we were down to just two patients with Covid in the hospital. Now we've had to open a new Covid floor because we ran out of beds on the other one. Most of these people are not just random positives coming in for other things, these are people who came in with symptoms of Covid. And I get with contact tracing we are testing a lot more of the contacts then we used to, so that does add into the total.
A lot of our current inpatients tested positive as outpatients and came in to the hospital several days later when symptoms became severe. I'm curious, since we retest on admit, if both tests are reported as separate positive cases. If so, we have double counted at least 10 cases at our hospital alone in the last week.
And I don't want to seem uncaring either. I work with data a lot and I try to look at data and risk processes without emotion, which is hard to do in this case.
What I see are rising positive cases, but I also see everybody and their brother in my neighborhood getting tested, including my family (thankfully no positives except the children of good friends who had zero or few symptoms).
Also, I see we are 2-3 week past the George Floyd funeral/ protests, which are politically incorrect to talk about for some reason as a reason for spread. I read that the US set a record at that time with 26 million protesters out and about. I'm thinking this wave has a lot to do with that but we won't know for a week or two.
I also know that Houston spent over a million dollars on a huge temporary hospital that nobody ever used. When I see that I think that we flattened the curve and we have backup capacity to spare.
This needs to pass through the population and that means our infrastructure will be stretched, but its inevitable IMO.
I hope they don't work you to death!
translated: thank you for your first hand information, but let me tell you how you are wrong. be well!Cepe said:Thank you for the first hand information. I think its great we can hear from the front lines and I know we are full at the moment.Moxley said:
I get what you're saying, and to an extent that is true In terms of community testing for less symptomatic cases. But it's also true that Covid related hospitalizations are way up (at least in Texas). It's not just due to increased testing, more people are getting seriously ill.
In late May we had the testing capacity to test anyone who came to us with symptoms. I think comparing the last two weeks of May to the situation now would be more appropriate. We almost closed our hospital Covid unit because we had no one to put in it. At one point we were down to just two patients with Covid in the hospital. Now we've had to open a new Covid floor because we ran out of beds on the other one. Most of these people are not just random positives coming in for other things, these are people who came in with symptoms of Covid. And I get with contact tracing we are testing a lot more of the contacts then we used to, so that does add into the total.
A lot of our current inpatients tested positive as outpatients and came in to the hospital several days later when symptoms became severe. I'm curious, since we retest on admit, if both tests are reported as separate positive cases. If so, we have double counted at least 10 cases at our hospital alone in the last week.
And I don't want to seem uncaring either. I work with data a lot and I try to look at data and risk processes without emotion, which is hard to do in this case.
What I see are rising positive cases, but I also see everybody and their brother in my neighborhood getting tested, including my family (thankfully no positives except the children of good friends who had zero or few symptoms).
Also, I see we are 2-3 week past the George Floyd funeral/ protests, which are politically incorrect to talk about for some reason as a reason for spread. I read that the US set a record at that time with 26 million protesters out and about. I'm thinking this wave has a lot to do with that but we won't know for a week or two.
I also know that Houston spent over a million dollars on a huge temporary hospital that nobody ever used. When I see that I think that we flattened the curve and we have backup capacity to spare.
This needs to pass through the population and that means our infrastructure will be stretched, but its inevitable IMO.
I hope they don't work you to death!
Countries will continue to see cases, but bear in mind there is a difference between an uncontrolled or poorly controlled outbreak, and pop-up clusters...which have happened in Asian countries that contained the virus, and Australia now. The latter can be quickly addressed and hopefully contained swiftly before too much damage is done. So in both examples cases rise, but the context differs.
.Moxley said:
I get what you're saying, and to an extent that is true In terms of community testing for less symptomatic cases. But it's also true that Covid related hospitalizations are way up (at least in Texas). It's not just due to increased testing, more people are getting seriously ill.
In late May we had the testing capacity to test anyone who came to us with symptoms. I think comparing the last two weeks of May to the situation now would be more appropriate. We almost closed our hospital Covid unit because we had no one to put in it. At one point we were down to just two patients with Covid in the hospital. Now we've had to open a new Covid floor because we ran out of beds on the other one. Most of these people are not just random positives coming in for other things, these are people who came in with symptoms of Covid. And I get with contact tracing we are testing a lot more of the contacts then we used to, so that does add into the total.
A lot of our current inpatients tested positive as outpatients and came in to the hospital several days later when symptoms became severe. I'm curious, since we retest on admit, if both tests are reported as separate positive cases. If so, we have double counted at least 10 cases at our hospital alone in the last week.
Moxley for perspective, what city are you in?
We've gone from 1878 lab confirmed COVID-19 positive hospitalizations to 9286 in one month. The Houston trauma service area has 118 ICU beds available for a population of 6.7 million people. Whatever else is going on in other parts of the country, it's getting bad in Texas.
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f
Are there effective contact tracing programs in Texas? Several members of my family (Fort Bend County) have it and no one has called them to ask where they have been or where they think they may have gotten it.
You think working is what may kill him in this present situation?
AggieOO said:translated: thank you for your first hand information, but let me tell you how you are wrong. be well!Cepe said:Thank you for the first hand information. I think its great we can hear from the front lines and I know we are full at the moment.Moxley said:
I get what you're saying, and to an extent that is true In terms of community testing for less symptomatic cases. But it's also true that Covid related hospitalizations are way up (at least in Texas). It's not just due to increased testing, more people are getting seriously ill.
In late May we had the testing capacity to test anyone who came to us with symptoms. I think comparing the last two weeks of May to the situation now would be more appropriate. We almost closed our hospital Covid unit because we had no one to put in it. At one point we were down to just two patients with Covid in the hospital. Now we've had to open a new Covid floor because we ran out of beds on the other one. Most of these people are not just random positives coming in for other things, these are people who came in with symptoms of Covid. And I get with contact tracing we are testing a lot more of the contacts then we used to, so that does add into the total.
A lot of our current inpatients tested positive as outpatients and came in to the hospital several days later when symptoms became severe. I'm curious, since we retest on admit, if both tests are reported as separate positive cases. If so, we have double counted at least 10 cases at our hospital alone in the last week.
And I don't want to seem uncaring either. I work with data a lot and I try to look at data and risk processes without emotion, which is hard to do in this case.
What I see are rising positive cases, but I also see everybody and their brother in my neighborhood getting tested, including my family (thankfully no positives except the children of good friends who had zero or few symptoms).
Also, I see we are 2-3 week past the George Floyd funeral/ protests, which are politically incorrect to talk about for some reason as a reason for spread. I read that the US set a record at that time with 26 million protesters out and about. I'm thinking this wave has a lot to do with that but we won't know for a week or two.
I also know that Houston spent over a million dollars on a huge temporary hospital that nobody ever used. When I see that I think that we flattened the curve and we have backup capacity to spare.
This needs to pass through the population and that means our infrastructure will be stretched, but its inevitable IMO.
I hope they don't work you to death!
Not true
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-second-wave-of-covid-hits-israel-like-a-tsunami
Username checks out.
Unfortunately, the IHME model has been very inaccurate. That is not too surprising, as it has been criticized as a poor choice by many epidemiologists ever since the paper describing it was published (see https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/ and
Youyang Gu's model has performed much better, and it has a similarly nice website (see https://covid19-projections.com/us ) . That model now estimates that we probably have between 1.7 million and 4.4 million people currently infected in the US. Compared to between 3.0 million and 4.7 million at the high point in April.
The good news is that the fatality rate, has come down. But we'll probably be at a new high point in the US overall by the end of July.
In answer to the original question for this thread: Yes. Many countries have rising case counts. Notably: Mexico, Iraq, Israel, India, Nigeria, South Africa, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and most of Central America
).
Youyang Gu's model has performed much better, and it has a similarly nice website (see https://covid19-projections.com/us ) . That model now estimates that we probably have between 1.7 million and 4.4 million people currently infected in the US. Compared to between 3.0 million and 4.7 million at the high point in April.
The good news is that the fatality rate, has come down. But we'll probably be at a new high point in the US overall by the end of July.
In answer to the original question for this thread: Yes. Many countries have rising case counts. Notably: Mexico, Iraq, Israel, India, Nigeria, South Africa, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and most of Central America
I get the IHME model has issues and don't dispute those. I'd happily bet bet we won't reach anywhere near the deaths we had. I'd even say we won't hit 50% if the high for a filling 7 day average. There is just no evidence to suggest deaths will go up that much.
So the US is on par with most 3rd world countries in mgmt of Covid19?CompEvoBio94 said:
Unfortunately, the IHME model has been very inaccurate. That is not too surprising, as it has been criticized as a poor choice by many epidemiologists ever since the paper describing it was published (see https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/ and).
Youyang Gu's model has performed much better, and it has a similarly nice website (see https://covid19-projections.com/us ) . That model now estimates that we probably have between 1.7 million and 4.4 million people currently infected in the US. Compared to between 3.0 million and 4.7 million at the high point in April.
The good news is that the fatality rate, has come down. But we'll probably be at a new high point in the US overall by the end of July.
In answer to the original question for this thread: Yes. Many countries have rising case counts. Notably: Mexico, Iraq, Israel, India, Nigeria, South Africa, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and most of Central America
Or maybe we are just on a delayed timeline compared to Western Europe
I should have written more clearly. I meant the "we'll probably be at a new high point" statement to refer to actual cases (we are already a record for daily confirmed cases, but that is highly influenced by our improved testing capacity).
I agree that we probably won't get close to the daily death #s we saw in April. Our ability to treat the disease has improved significantly. And our surveillance is much better than it was then.
The Gu model is predicting daily # deaths due to COVID-19 to rise, but there is a good chance that the late summer peak in daily deaths will only be about 1/3 the level of the daily deaths in April. That seems like a pretty reasonable prediction to me.
I agree that we probably won't get close to the daily death #s we saw in April. Our ability to treat the disease has improved significantly. And our surveillance is much better than it was then.
The Gu model is predicting daily # deaths due to COVID-19 to rise, but there is a good chance that the late summer peak in daily deaths will only be about 1/3 the level of the daily deaths in April. That seems like a pretty reasonable prediction to me.
bay fan said:
Nothing remotely close to what is happening here
Most of the US never really experienced a first wave. We are now.
The early US death toll was misleading because so much of it was due to a few densely populated areas of the country, primarily in the NE, who did such a horrific job of protecting nursing homes.
The rest of the country never experienced that and really shut down before the virus could spread much at all. This is TX and many other states' first major exposure.
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