CDC updated their best estimates for Virus parameters

dragmagpuff

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8:41a, 7/13/20

AG

Now saying the most likely IFR is 0.65%, up from the 0.26% they were estimating previously.

I know the CDC had a lot of confused people at how much lower their 0.26% was than the rest of the world's estimates. This 0.65% is more inline with most estimates I have seen.

Other key parameters: Most likely (Range)

R0: 2.5 (Range 2 - 4)
Asymptomatic cases: 40% (10% to 70%)
Infectiousness of asymptomatic to symptomatic: 75% (25% to 100%)
% of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset: 50% (35% to 70%)

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AvidAggie

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10:17a, 7/13/20

AG

So how would contact tracing ever work if 40% of cases are asymptomatic?

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Leggo My Elko

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10:33a, 7/13/20

AG

Quote:
Other key parameters: Most likely (Range)
R0: 2.5 (Range 2 - 4)
Asymptomatic cases: 40% (10% to 70%)
Infectiousness of asymptomatic to symptomatic: 75% (25% to 100%)
% of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset: 50% (35% to 70%)

Those ranges are pretty huge. Shows how much science still needs to be done.

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HotardAg07

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In reply to AvidAggie • 10:38a, 7/13/20

AG

AvidAggie said:
So how would contact tracing ever work if 40% of cases are asymptomatic?

Avid,
The whole point of contact tracing is to catch people who are asymptomatic before they are unwittingly spreading the virus to people. You take a person who tests positive, trace their recent contacts to who may have been infected, and test them regardless of symptoms.

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dragmagpuff

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In reply to AvidAggie • 10:54a, 7/13/20

AG

AvidAggie said:
So how would contact tracing ever work if 40% of cases are asymptomatic?

For example, Germany is testing over 100 people per positive case.

The US is more like 12.

When you have that much excess testing capacity, you can be proactive.

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agforlife97

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11:16a, 7/13/20

AG

31,137 deaths in NYC right now which implies 31,137/0.0065 or 4.8 million cases. That's around 25% of the metro area, so it looks like they'll be able to test whether herd immunity happens at 10-20%. If the IFR was lower (which it probably is), then that means even more cases.

scottimus

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In reply to Leggo My Elko • 11:23a, 7/13/20

AG

TexjbA&M said:
Quote:
Other key parameters: Most likely (Range)
R0: 2.5 (Range 2 - 4)
Asymptomatic cases: 40% (10% to 70%)
Infectiousness of asymptomatic to symptomatic: 75% (25% to 100%)
% of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset: 50% (35% to 70%)
Those ranges are pretty huge. Shows how much science still needs to be done.

Shows how much **** people are pulling out of their ass...

3