Mask order was issued on July 2nd, does that mean cases will drop starting Thursday?

10,525 Views | 94 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by reb,
Aggies2009
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In theory, if masks are super effective, wouldn't that mean that cases will start to drop on Thursday, the 16th? That'll be 2 weeks since the mask order was given...
Premium
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Two more weeks or GTFO
TxAgLaw03RW
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Dallas County has been under one for longer and it doesn't seem to matter. We probably need more protests so we can flatten the curve.
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
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San Antonio actually issued mask mandates to local businesses along with stricter regulations regarding bar and restaurant capacity towards the end of June and we have started to see a reduction in the rate of rise of cases going back the last week or so which coincides exactly with when they started cracking down. Certainly public awareness could also be a factor, however.
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Aggies2009
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Player To Be Named Later said:

Depends on if you think people are actually following the order to the extent necessary for it to matter.

A bunch of conspiracy F16 Tards don't get to refuse to wear them, and then say "SEE, THEY DIDN'T WORK ANYWAY" while completely ignoring that a lot of idiots just flat refused.

Edit - I really hope for the next pandemic, that behaviors like not wearing masks, social distancing, etc would only affect those who choose to pretend it doesn't exist. It would maybe be the greatest single thing to ever happen to our society.
Given that it was ordered, you'd think most of the population would follow the mandate. A few [F16 users--Staff] not following it wouldn't have an effect on the overall cases going down. Regardless, we should see cases lower, or at least not grow as they were, right?
Aggies2009
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:

San Antonio actually issued mask mandates to local businesses along with stricter regulations regarding bar and restaurant capacity towards the end of June and we have started to see a reduction in the rate of rise of cases going back the last week or so which coincides exactly with when they started cracking down. Certainly public awareness could also be a factor, however.
Thanks for that info. Let's see if that happens state-wide.
Player To Be Named Later
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Except that it's not just a "few" people who think they're smarter than the rest of the world now. Ask Dr. Reveille and some of the other Docs here what % compliance they feel we need with masks in order for it to matter.

ElephantRider
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A lot of people still refusing to wear them in my neck of the woods. Luckily businesses are starting to enforce it. Local grocery store won't let you in without one, and is handing them out for people that didn't bring their own.
Cepe
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I think the mask orders prompted people to stay home more too. It did in my case, went back to my pre-opening routine for the most part
beerad12man
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Didn't reveille say something like 70-80% mask wearing required for it to be effective enough? Everywhere I go, at least indoors, is nearing 100%.

Also, I believe that number changes in terms of how much of the population has some immunity to it. If you have 0%, you need much higher mask compliance. If you have 20% of the population already having had it, it would stand to reason to be much less.
Aggies2009
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Player To Be Named Later said:

Except that it's not just a "few" people who think they're smarter than the rest of the world now. Ask Dr. Reveille and some of the other Docs here what % compliance they feel we need with masks in order for it to matter.


Isn't even 10% following orders going to show results of some sort, though?
ORAggieFan
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It's not doing much in CA, especially the LA area and we've had it longer here in CA with likely much higher participation.
Player To Be Named Later
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Aggies2009 said:

Player To Be Named Later said:

Except that it's not just a "few" people who think they're smarter than the rest of the world now. Ask Dr. Reveille and some of the other Docs here what % compliance they feel we need with masks in order for it to matter.


Isn't even 10% following orders going to show results of some sort, though?
I haven't seen any of the doctors on this board think 10% would do a bit of good.
ElephantRider
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SoupNazi2001 said:

ElephantRider said:

A lot of people still refusing to wear them in my neck of the woods. Luckily businesses are starting to enforce it. Local grocery store won't let you in without one, and is handing them out for people that didn't bring their own.


Anybody can claim the medical exemption without issue.

Which is a **** thing to do
jopatura
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:

San Antonio actually issued mask mandates to local businesses along with stricter regulations regarding bar and restaurant capacity towards the end of June and we have started to see a reduction in the rate of rise of cases going back the last week or so which coincides exactly with when they started cracking down. Certainly public awareness could also be a factor, however.


Austin area is starting to get a little better too, although we need to get through today/tomorrow to figure out if it was a weekend lag or a downward trend starting. But all signs point to getting through the peak.
BowSowy
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ElephantRider said:

SoupNazi2001 said:

ElephantRider said:

A lot of people still refusing to wear them in my neck of the woods. Luckily businesses are starting to enforce it. Local grocery store won't let you in without one, and is handing them out for people that didn't bring their own.


Anybody can claim the medical exemption without issue.

Which is a **** thing to do
Don't waste your time, that guy has dug his heels in big time over this
Aggies2009
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Thanks for the info, everyone.

I'm hoping to see a downward trend soon, but am skeptical.
bigtruckguy3500
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Not sure if you're just being optimistic or very facetious. But the wear of masks isn't like a light switch. Nor is it something magical that works when worn improperly, or only when you feel like others are watching.

I see lots of people take our off at their offices and in the halls, at shared desks and work spaces, only to put them on if they think they're going to be seen by someone who might care.

A lot of businesses and bars around here enforced masks to enter, but didn't care what happened once you were inside.

You are the lowest risk to others when outside and in the open. Wearing a mask 90% of the time doesn't lower risk 90% if you're not wearing the mask during the highest risk 10% if your day.

There are too many people hoping masks fail so they can say "see, this mandate was not only unconstitutional, but it didn't even work."
GAC06
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How long has California mandated masks? They're locking down again.
94chem
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Look at the chart for America. Now look at the chart for Brazil. Now look at the rest of the world.

Can anyone identify what was different?
94chem
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Look at the chart for America. Now look at the chart for Brazil. Now look at the rest of the world.

Can anyone identify what was different?
94chem
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Look at the chart for America. Now look at the chart for Brazil. Now look at the rest of the world.

Can anyone identify what was different?
Player To Be Named Later
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What's going on in Quebec? They just mandated face coverings in all indoor public places starting July 18th. Are they seeing a big uptick also?
beerad12man
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94chem said:

Look at the chart for America. Now look at the chart for Brazil. Now look at the rest of the world.

Can anyone identify what was different?
Probably a couple dozen variables, actually.
bigtruckguy3500
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GAC06 said:

How long has California mandated masks? They're locking down again.


Mask mandates do not stop this virus. And they certainly do not guarantee compliance.

Social distancing, good hygiene, and steps to mitigate respiratory droplet contamination combine to slow the spread.

Masks are only a part of the solution.

Just going to edit this and add and example.

Let's say an infected person can spread it to 2 other people. If we do a little math, one person gets 2, those 2 get 4, those 4 get 8, etc.. Then masks go into effect. Let's assume a 50% decrease in infectivity, those 8 people are still going to give it to 8 people. And those 8 to 8 more. And that's assuming a 50% decrease, which is really unimaginable right now for any single intervention. I also think COVID's R0 is higher than 2, but I could be wrong.
Capitol Ag
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Quote:

Edit - I really hope for the next pandemic, that behaviors like not wearing masks, social distancing, etc would only affect those who choose to pretend it doesn't exist. It would maybe be the greatest single thing to ever happen to our society.
No you don't. We all have our opinions on these things. People not wanting to wear masks aren't the problem others make them out to be. And people wanting to live their lives not thinking about Covid all day may just want to actually live their life and not live in unnecessary fear. One of the worst things about all of this is the finger pointing and judging by one side against the other. It sucks and I'd argue is more toxic than the virus. We do not need to wish ill will on anybody over this crap.
Player To Be Named Later
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Capitol Ag said:

Quote:

Edit - I really hope for the next pandemic, that behaviors like not wearing masks, social distancing, etc would only affect those who choose to pretend it doesn't exist. It would maybe be the greatest single thing to ever happen to our society.
No you don't. We all have our opinions on these things. People not wanting to wear masks aren't the problem others make them out to be. And people wanting to live their lives not thinking about Covid all day may just want to actually live their life and not live in unnecessary fear. One of the worst things about all of this is the finger pointing and judging by one side against the other. It sucks and I'd argue is more toxic than the virus. We do not need to wish ill will on anybody over this crap.
I'm all about if people want to make stupid decisions that only affect themselves, that they be free to do so.
agforlife97
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GAC06 said:

How long has California mandated masks? They're locking down again.
Looks like June 19. Interesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/us/california-coronavirus-face-covering-order/index.html
JFrench
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Capitol Ag said:

Quote:

Edit - I really hope for the next pandemic, that behaviors like not wearing masks, social distancing, etc would only affect those who choose to pretend it doesn't exist. It would maybe be the greatest single thing to ever happen to our society.
No you don't. We all have our opinions on these things. People not wanting to wear masks aren't the problem others make them out to be. And people wanting to live their lives not thinking about Covid all day may just want to actually live their life and not live in unnecessary fear. One of the worst things about all of this is the finger pointing and judging by one side against the other. It sucks and I'd argue is more toxic than the virus. We do not need to wish ill will on anybody over this crap.
why can't he think like this?

same should apply to corona bros and jobs. when jobs become available again they should be the last to fill them.



HotardAg07
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:

San Antonio actually issued mask mandates to local businesses along with stricter regulations regarding bar and restaurant capacity towards the end of June and we have started to see a reduction in the rate of rise of cases going back the last week or so which coincides exactly with when they started cracking down. Certainly public awareness could also be a factor, however.


Houston has the same experience and the same trend. Cases flattened out first and then hospitalizations flattened shortly after that.
ORAggieFan
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agforlife97 said:

GAC06 said:

How long has California mandated masks? They're locking down again.
Looks like June 19. Interesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/us/california-coronavirus-face-covering-order/index.html
But much earlier in many counties. Here in San Diego it was May 1 and it was heavily followed well before that. I've not been indoors w/o 100% following. If masks are effective and there is 100% compliance in hair and nail salons, why are we closing those down?

bay fan
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Aggies2009 said:

In theory, if masks are super effective, wouldn't that mean that cases will start to drop on Thursday, the 16th? That'll be 2 weeks since the mask order was given...
In theory if everyone wore masks. My daughters neighbor in a high rise in uptown had a day long party filled with 20-30 or so drunken 20 something's floating from 900 square foot apartment to the pool closed to guests. Rules don't apply to many selfish people. It's great if people are wear masks at the grocery store but it's not going to work with drunken gatherings going on and then people will fall back to masks don't work when in fact it's more like people won't use common sense.
fat girlfriend
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bigtruckguy3500 said:


Mask mandates do not stop this virus. And they certainly do not guarantee compliance.

Social distancing, good hygiene, and steps to mitigate respiratory droplet contamination combine to slow the spread.


Here is my question...why do we want to slow the spread, except to ensure that hospitals aren't overwhelmed? Wouldn't it be better to go ahead and get it behind us? If masks don't actually stop people from getting sick, but rather merely delay people from getting sick, then shouldn't we acknowledge that?
Player To Be Named Later
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fat girlfriend said:

bigtruckguy3500 said:


Mask mandates do not stop this virus. And they certainly do not guarantee compliance.

Social distancing, good hygiene, and steps to mitigate respiratory droplet contamination combine to slow the spread.


Here is my question...why do we want to slow the spread, except to ensure that hospitals aren't overwhelmed? Wouldn't it be better to go ahead and get it behind us? If masks don't actually stop people from getting sick, but rather merely delay people from getting sick, then shouldn't we acknowledge that?
Well, there's the small detail that active immunity may only last for 2 or 3 months. If that's the case, what is the benefit to hurrying and letting everyone get sick as quickly as possible?

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-uk-study-shows-antibodies-fade-after-three-weeks-2020-7
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