Didn't we just see that CDC says it's about 0.2% and much less if you are under 70? Now I see people saying it is 4%. Anyone have any current numbers or data?
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Current mortality rate in US?
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Last: 5 yr ago by Sq 17
I do not trust the quality of the healthcare and death reporting of the countries on that list.
This is how I see it. Please note in just a random guy from the internet, though.
The wide spread between 0.2% and 4% is likely because they represent 2 different probabilities. Infection fatality rate (IFR) is the probability of death given infected. Case fatality rate (CFR) is the probability of death given diagnosed (for the most part).
0.2% was a best estimate assumption of the IFR the cdc used for modeling.
4% is likely the observed CFR.
diff between IFR and CFR is difference between true infections vs identified cases.
CFR is straightforward to calculate but not as meaningful.
IFR is meaningful but is difficult to estimate. Asymptomatic spread plus serious testing constraints enhances this difficulty.
Never enough information with this virus. But then again it is novel.
Also, important to note these are population aggregate metrics. Individual probabilities could be orders of magnitude higher or lower. Mortality depends on age, sex, pre-existing conditions, etc.
Not sure that helps any but I hope it does.
The wide spread between 0.2% and 4% is likely because they represent 2 different probabilities. Infection fatality rate (IFR) is the probability of death given infected. Case fatality rate (CFR) is the probability of death given diagnosed (for the most part).
0.2% was a best estimate assumption of the IFR the cdc used for modeling.
4% is likely the observed CFR.
diff between IFR and CFR is difference between true infections vs identified cases.
CFR is straightforward to calculate but not as meaningful.
IFR is meaningful but is difficult to estimate. Asymptomatic spread plus serious testing constraints enhances this difficulty.
Never enough information with this virus. But then again it is novel.
Also, important to note these are population aggregate metrics. Individual probabilities could be orders of magnitude higher or lower. Mortality depends on age, sex, pre-existing conditions, etc.
Not sure that helps any but I hope it does.
So the 0.2% is the important number. Got it.
CDC has upped their estimate to .65%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/cdc-updates-covid-19-fatality-rate-best-estimate/
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/cdc-updates-covid-19-fatality-rate-best-estimate/
Moral of the story: If you get it, don't get tested. You're more likely to live.
Bruce Almighty said:
Moral of the story: If you get it, don't get tested. You're more likely to live.
And you might keep us from being locked down.
All these jackasses that get tested because they're curious, but aren't that sick (if at all), are why my county in California just locked back down at the max level despite having very few people getting sick. Stop getting tested unless it's necessary.
On the other hand, I'm considering getting tested a couple times a week to dilute the numbers so we aren't locked down indefinitely.
Based on the totality of the data that I've seen, I believe the overall mortality rate in the US is around 0.2-0.4%. Anything above 0.5% would surprise me based what I currently know.
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Do you feel that Early on in the pandemic in Milan & NYC the IFR was less than .4% ?
I agree it is probably in that range but I think in the last 90 days the Docs are getting much better at treating and In Milan and NYC the IFR was approaching 1% especially given the hospitals were under extreme stress
I agree it is probably in that range but I think in the last 90 days the Docs are getting much better at treating and In Milan and NYC the IFR was approaching 1% especially given the hospitals were under extreme stress
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