Some good news. Covid deaths are still going down in the U.S. We've all seen a lot of data reporting to the contrary, but rest assured these CDC numbers are the final and official numbers.

Notes:

• Data from the CDC Provisional Death Counts
• These values count the number of death certificates reported with Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD10 code U07.1.
• Data includes extrapolated projections (increases total for the week) for 6/20 - 7/15 based on % cases CDC expected to be reported for that period. This "modeling" has shown to be accurate for projecting as final death certificates come in for the week.

[Keep the trolling on the Forum 16 forum. It is not wanted here. - Staff]

Here is the CDC data for Texas. We're averaging about 125 deaths per week with the overall trend still going down.

Worldometer has different #s

We went up last week after a decline of 10 straight weeks.

Daily Average Deaths

2,143.57 <-------- Week ending Saturday, April 25th
1,884.00
1,799.14
1,384.00
1,224.29
983.00
899.57
775.86
636.14
589.29
518.29
721.71 <-------- Week ending Saturday, July 11th

And through yesterday we are above last week's pace.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Worldometer has different #s

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Yes - that's why I only focus on the CDC death certificate numbers. These are the FINAL and OFFICIAL numbers based on actual reported death certificates.

Too many other sites data are I believe based on non-factual data.

In Hidalgo County where I live we had 35 die yesterday (31 the day before) including 2 people in their 20s.

That data is directly from the county.

PJYoung said:

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In Hidalgo County where I live we had 35 die yesterday (31 the day before) including 2 people in their 20s.

That data is directly from the county.

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This is where I struggle to trust any of the data.

Of the 35 that died yesterday, did they confirm the actual date that they died?

Houston reported 16 deaths yesterday, and claimed it was the biggest day so far....until you looked at the date of their deaths.

2 were in May
11 were in June
3 were in July, but not from the 15th

(on my work computer so can't link to the Houston Emergency twitter account)

And we also know that the "positive" cases are likely reflecting cases from a week ago, and potentially "presumptive positive" cases.


The only thing I really feel comfortable saying or trusting is that Government is a joke and has no ability to tell us what's actually happening.

AgLiving06 said:

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The only thing I really feel comfortable saying or trusting is that Government is a joke and has no ability to tell us what's actually happening.

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This. And while everyone is drawing their political lines in the sand, what they aren't seeing is that no political "side" is doing any better at this than the other.

We "should" be seeing this as a crystal clear point that we could use a 3rd party or fix the 2 we have, but people will still insist 1 of the 2 is any better than the other.

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In Hidalgo County where I live we had 35 die yesterday (31 the day before) including 2 people in their 20s.

That data is directly from the county.

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I know - that's why I only watch the CDC death count data. All other data isn't really official.

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The only thing I really feel comfortable saying or trusting is that Government is a joke and has no ability to tell us what's actually happening.

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Again, that's why I only use the CDC data as it only counts death certificates with the covid code. It may not be perfect - but it is based on what coroner's are reporting on an official document

sleepybeagle said:

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Worldometer has different #s

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Yes - that's why I only focus on the CDC death certificate numbers. These are the FINAL and OFFICIAL numbers based on actual reported death certificates.

Too many other sites data are I believe based on non-factual data.

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Is CDC data not more likely to lag in this situation though?

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CDC will have a hell of a lag now that Trump banned them from getting data.

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I know any good news is hard for many of us to take given this pandemic isn't really about eliminating the Covid virus... but eliminating the Donald Trump virus.

sleepybeagle said:

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CDC will have a hell of a lag now that Trump banned them from getting data.

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I know any good news is hard for many of us to take given this pandemic isn't really about eliminating the Covid virus... but eliminating the Donald Trump virus.

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I voted for Trump, but is that not correct?

The CDC is no longer handling hospitalization data. They will still be processing the fatality data.

From the NYT:

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The new instructions were posted recently in a little-noticed document on the Department of Health and Human Services website. From now on, the department not the C.D.C. will collect daily reports about the patients that each hospital is treating, the number of available beds and ventilators, and other information vital to tracking the pandemic.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html

The actual document is at https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf

sleepybeagle said:

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CDC will have a hell of a lag now that Trump banned them from getting data.

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I know any good news is hard for many of us to take given this pandemic isn't really about eliminating the Covid virus... but eliminating the Donald Trump virus.

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Deaths are not down in Texas and the federal government is trying to obfuscate the data now. That's not TDS, it's facts.

Texas had 12k+ new cases and 150+ deaths yesterday. That's not good news.

Keegan99 said:

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The CDC is no longer handling hospitalization data. They will still be processing the fatality data.

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Un-****ing-believable.

Read the linked PDF of the actual change. It's nothing nefarious. It's just bureaucracy trying to be a little less bureaucratic and more real-time.

The only question should be "Why is this only happening now?"

It should have been done in April.

ETFan said:

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sleepybeagle said:

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CDC will have a hell of a lag now that Trump banned them from getting data.

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I know any good news is hard for many of us to take given this pandemic isn't really about eliminating the Covid virus... but eliminating the Donald Trump virus.

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Deaths are not down in Texas and the federal government is trying to obfuscate the data now. That's not TDS, it's facts.

Texas had 12k+ new cases and 150+ deaths yesterday. That's not good news.

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Depends doesnt it? If all 12k+ new cases were presumptive cases of people age 17-25, that's probably not all that concerning. And if all 150+ deaths were recategorized death counts from May and June, that's actually really good. Details matter but they make for boring headlines.

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Deaths are not down in Texas and the federal government is trying to obfuscate the data now. That's not TDS, it's facts.

Texas had 12k+ new cases and 150+ deaths yesterday. That's not good news.

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Facts are what I posted. The latest, and most unadulterated death numbers possible based on actual death certificates given to the CDC. I included the link. Trump has nothing to do with the number of official death certificates produced by coroners.

I know what I posted seems hard to believe based on all of the news out there.

sleepybeagle said:

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webgem08 said:

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CDC tracks date of death on their charts. The counties are just reporting as they are tallied through the system.

I don't think it's nefarious on the counties part, just slow bureaucracy.

Those CDC numbers will continue to go up as we go on, but so far, the shape of the curve has remained the same.

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Very true. This is what I have observed week by week with the graph curve.

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This guy has been keeping track of changes to this data over time. It's really beneficial.

webgem08 said:

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sleepybeagle said:

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webgem08 said:

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CDC tracks date of death on their charts. The counties are just reporting as they are tallied through the system.

I don't think it's nefarious on the counties part, just slow bureaucracy.

Those CDC numbers will continue to go up as we go on, but so far, the shape of the curve has remained the same.

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Very true. This is what I have observed week by week with the graph curve.

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This guy has been keeping track of changes to this data over time. It's really beneficial.

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The same data series visualized:

Kyle Lamb is probably more appropriate for F16. He's a Sandy Hook denier, among other things. I would use his information with that in mind.