A look at 2009 H1N1 vs COVID-19 pandemics....

1,292 Views | 2 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by TXTransplant
Marcus Aurelius
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AG
I have had the distinct pleasure of practicing in the ICU during both of these pandemics. Both were/have been bad. But I think it is worthy to analyze the data. Obviously COVID-19 isn't near being over. Worldwide.

2009 H1N1 swine flu: 19 mos- Jan 2009 to August 2010. Estimated to have infected 700 million to 1.4 billion people, or 14-21% of the population. There were 18,449 lab confirmed deaths to the WHO. However, it is estimated that it actually caused 284,000 deaths (150,00 - 575,00). Fatality rate estimated at .03%. Clinical features were younger, healthier patients affected. ARDS illness and superimposed MRSA pneumonia.

COVID-19: approximately 4.5 mos. 14,153,728 cases (CDC estimates actual cases 10x so 141,537,280 cases.) So far 597,945 deaths (actual deaths CDC estimated at 2x confirmed so 1,195,890 deaths.) Fatality rate estimated 1.4%. Clinical features have been discussed extensively - older more comorbid do worse, ARDS, hypercoaguable state, renal, cardiac involvement.

From personal experience. The sickest 2009 H1N1 pts were extremely ill. But, there wasn't as many of them in the hospital compared to COVID-19. The COVID-19 sickest pts are also extremely ill. But, of a different nature and are much harder to take care of. IMO - COVID-19 is more sinister.

Sources: Johns Hopkins site, Worldometer, CDC, WHO.
OldArmy71
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AG
Well that's depressing.
zachsccr
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AG
My take from this is younger and stronger versus weaker and older. We've known for YEARS there was a storm brewing with the decline of health in the US and the rise of obesity. This to me seems to be just about the worst case scenario of that storm hitting.

I hope and pray that we can illicit some positive changes from this in regard to overall public health. Not saying we will, but I intend to do my best as a health care professional to do so.

Always appreciate your insight Marcus
TXTransplant
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Given the fact that H1N1 was much more deadly to children rather than adults (particularly older adults who we think may have been exposed in previous vaccines), would you agree that there is value in separating out the infection/death rates for children vs adults?

I feel like this is a big flaw in how people are evaluating data when it comes to opening schools, but I'm willing to hear other viewpoints.

The top doctor in Austin said this week that, if schools are allowed to open, it could KILL between 40-1370 children (he didn't give a timeframe for those deaths). The numbers we have just don't support that conclusion.

I really hate the flu comparison, especially for adult cases. But for kids, it seems the only reasonable one, especially since the flu seems to be more deadly for kids (the 2019-2020 flu season has 169 pediatric deaths).
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