CDC Data Shows Covid Infections 2X to 13X Reported

NASAg03

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Alternate measurements of NYC confirm that ~1/4 of people in New York have had it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/c-d-c-data-shows-u-s-coronavirus-infections-much-higher-than-reported/ar-BB170RE0?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768835

Mike Shaw - Class of '03

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agforlife97

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3:50p, 7/21/20

AG

It's very obvious that the real number of cases is dramatically higher. Texas has had 4020 deaths, so if you work back from an IFR of bwteen 0.26% to 0.65% (CDC estimates), then you get an actual number of cases between 600,000 to 1.5 million. That's 2-5X confirmed cases. For NY, using this method reveals actual cases of between 4.7-11 million, which would get you to 25-50% total population.

The media has been intentionally misleading people. It's obvious the previous outbreak in NY/NJ/Conn was orders of magnitude larger than the currently-peaking outbreak in the south.

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jws87ag

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3:59p, 7/21/20

AG

Why would any reasonable person assume any governmental agency could count anything!

It's so concerning that people pull "data" from these websites and just believe it.

I would suggest that what you read on the internet is most likely an opinion, wrong, intentionally misleading, or just FAKE NEWS!

What ever happen to real Journalism?

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Player To Be Named Later

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4:13p, 7/21/20

AG

I can't keep up with whether we are supportive of CDC numbers or not. That seems to fluctuate every 30 minutes. One minute we think the CDC numbers are total garbage because they are giving us higher case #s than are a reality due to screwing up counting tests. The next minute we think CDC's high case number estimates are a great thing because, you know, "muh hurd immunity"

That's been the most frustrating thing of all of this..... nobody knows what numbers to believe anymore because both "sides" vacillate between supporting and not supporting different number sets based on what they think they say.

"CDCs numbers are garbage, because their high numbers are getting us shut down and schools delayed"

"CDC believes our positive cases are way higher than we think.... GREAT NEWS!!! Herd immunity!!"

It makes most of us pretty dizzy.

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Bluecat_Aggie94

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4:15p, 7/21/20

AG

2x-13X. That's a range from 6 to 39 million. I bet they nailed it. CDC's record for accuracy is intact.

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Windy City Ag

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5:24p, 7/21/20

AG

When "personal freedom to make decisions" has lethal consequences, there is always going to be some societal restriction.

coolerguy12

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In reply to Windy City Ag • 5:53p, 7/21/20

AG

Quote:
Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.

- Ben Franklin

- Coolerguy12

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Complete Idiot

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In reply to Bluecat_Aggie94 • 6:02p, 7/21/20

Bluecat_Aggie94 said:
2x-13X. That's a range from 6 to 39 million. I bet they nailed it. CDC's record for accuracy is intact.

It would help you, but hurt your joke, if you read the article. They said that depending on the area, the actual number who have had the virus may range from 2-13x in that specific area. So maybe 2x confirmed cases in NYC, but in Missouri they found it was as high as 13x confirmed cases there. Would depend on the testing done in the city or state. This is different than saying for the entire country they are guessing the total number is from 2-13x confirmed cases in country.

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Complete Idiot

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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 6:04p, 7/21/20

You might do yourself a favor by choosing to focus on the important topic - the virus and pandemic - and spend less time obsessing and posting about the "sides". It helps me, I can get lost in criticizing extreme or contradictory viewpoints but if I try to focus just on interesting facts/science topics related to the pandemic itself I find myself in a better mental state.

Complete Idiot

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In reply to agforlife97 • 6:09p, 7/21/20

agforlife97 said:
It's obvious the previous outbreak in NY/NJ/Conn was orders of magnitude larger than the currently-peaking outbreak in the south.

Yes, it's obvious if you look at the numbers on the various pandemic tracking sites. The deaths per million in the NYC area is the highest in the world, at least at the geographic granularity of what is reported in Worldometers. The highest deaths per million among countries is San MArino at 1,238 - but no one believes that is a real country, so lets use the next highest, Belgium at 846 deaths per million then the UK at 669 deaths per million.

Around NYC, the deaths per million are (for entire states)
New Jersey 1,781
NY 1,676
Connecticut 1,236
Massachusetts 1,226

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