Texas Covid dashboard updates fatality stats

3,625 Views | 20 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by fightingfarmer09
Complete Idiot
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I've viewed the Texas dashboard - https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83 - fairly often. Their fatality demographics page was always way out of date - they only had like 780 complete fatality investigations up through the end of this week (even as total fatalities went well over 4,000) but today they have demographics for all 5,713 fatalities. Unfortunately, for the first time, they show deaths under age 20 (all in the 10-19 age group) with 8 total deaths. Had always been zero. Also a big increase in my 40-49 age group.

This is their note as to why they "caught up" today:

July 27: DSHS is now reporting COVID-19 fatality data based on death certificates. A fatality is counted as a COVID-19 fatality when the medical certifier attests on the death certificate that COVID-19 is a cause of death.

This change means fatalities may be counted sooner and demographic data will be more comprehensive. Also, fatalities can now be displayed by date of death, presenting a more complete view of deaths over time. Fatalities are reported by county of residence.
Aggie95
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AG
8 is worse than 0 but I would think that is still in line or better than most flu seasons. There are a lot more dangerous activities that kids 0-19 do everyday that would result in more fatalities.

I would also be very curious as to the details of those 8 deaths. Healthy otherwise? Compromised health?
Keegan99
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AG
Not to sound to morbid, but I would be curious to see those death certificates.

That's a global outlier, to say the least. Anomalies like that lead to questions.
Complete Idiot
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Yes, if looking at Italy or the UK, with larger populations, it does seem to be an anomaly. I last looked over a week ago but I think deaths under age 20 was 4 In Italy and 7 in the UK.

NYC website has detailed fatalities by age and also various comorbidities, would be nice to see stats that detailed from the whole world.
TXTransplant
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To put it in perspective, CDC reports the following, as of 7/22 (data ending week of 7/11)

Deaths
<1: 11
1-4: 9
5-14: 16
15-24: 190

This suggests most of the deaths in the 10-19 range were aged 15+.

I don't understand why they aren't organizing the data like the CDC, so you can do an apples to apples comparison.

In comparison below are deaths from pneumonia and flu for the same time period:

<1: 75, 14
1-4: 52, 41
5-14: 78, 49
15-24: 300, 51

Total deaths of all causes:
<1: 8072
1-4: 1547
5-14: 2379
15-24: 14810

Source:

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
Complete Idiot
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Good points and it also has been my belief Influenza is more dangerous for the under 20 crowd. One argument against that might be that way more people have had the flu than Covid, even still, but I don't think that holds true if trying to show the Covid IfR for that age group is higher. I have been having discussions with people here in our school who are scared for their kids, and I miss saying "no one under aged 20 has died in Texas" - saying more people have died of flu than Covid should still be a strong argument, just not as eye catching. The problem is the Travis County health authority said up to 1300 kids could die in our county alone, if allowed to return to school, and people just accept that as a factual possibility. It's really awful to throw out bad data as a scare tactic.
TXTransplant
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Complete Idiot said:

Good points and it also has been my belief Influenza is more dangerous for the under 20 crowd. One argument against that might be that way more people have had the flu than Covid, even still, but I don't think that holds true if trying to show the Covid IfR for that age group is higher. I have been having discussions with people here in our school who are scared for their kids, and I miss saying "no one under aged 20 has died in Texas" - saying more people have died of flu than Covid should still be a strong argument, just not as eye catching. The problem is the Travis County health authority said up to 1300 kids could die in our county alone, if allowed to return to school, and people just accept that as a factual possibility. It's really awful to through out bad data as a scare tactic.


Yep, I had the same reaction when I saw those numbers the Austin Public Health doctor put out.

And I have real concerns that this shutdown will set a precedent for closing schools in the future for the flu. Because dying from coronavirus shouldn't be "worse" (or more important to prevent) than dying from the flu - but that's how public officials are treating it right now.
george07
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AG
Schools won't close in the future for flu, there's a vaccine for flu. It's not always super effective but it at least lessens severity if you catch it. I'd be super curious to see how many kids that had a flu shot died of flu. I'd guess very few or none. Hopefully the covid vaccine entering phase 3 trials will be successful.
cone
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AG
Schools won't close because the teachers aren't scared of the flu
OldArmy71
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AG
So what is the fatality total for Bexar County?

Yesterday it was 323. Today all of a sudden it's 480!

The newspaper and TV are reporting that there were no new deaths.

So which is it? Where did that huge increase come from? Is this a function of this new way of recording the deaths?
HotardAg07
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AG
The new deaths being reported are more or less a data dump:
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/dshs-adds-631-more-deaths-to-texas-covid-19-total-after-data-reporting-change/2414086/

The older deaths would have eventually been reported the old way, but the new way is helping them report faster.

In Texas there is a median 3 week delay on death reporting.
Rubble
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AG
So we're finally not going to report a death as COVID that isn't the actual cause of death. No more gun shot deaths that later tested positive.
OldArmy71
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OK, that makes sense. Thank you. Lots more have died than I thought.
Rubble
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AG
More have died, but the data won't lag behind as much and it will also be more accurate.
Keegan99
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AG
We'll also have date of death data, so there will be a real epi curve.
agforlife97
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AG
Aggie95 said:

8 is worse than 0 but I would think that is still in line or better than most flu seasons. There are a lot more dangerous activities that kids 0-19 do everyday that would result in more fatalities.

I would also be very curious as to the details of those 8 deaths. Healthy otherwise? Compromised health?
0.14% of deaths have been in the 10-19 age bracket is another way to say it. 0% in the 0-9 age bracket. There will always be statistical outliers, but the data is very clear as to what age groups are at risk of having a serious covid infection.
P.U.T.U
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AG
When New York was getting hit hard they had 10 deaths for kids under 9 or 14, can't remember, all all had a preexisting condition. At first they said one did not but then found out they had an autoimmune disorder. More kids have died since then so I am wondering if that still holds true.
Complete Idiot
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P.U.T.U said:

When New York was getting hit hard they had 10 deaths for kids under 9 or 14, can't remember, all all had a preexisting condition. At first they said one did not but then found out they had an autoimmune disorder. More kids have died since then so I am wondering if that still holds true.
You can see data here: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no

Looks like the state recorded 16 deaths for those under age 20, with 5 of those listed with pre-existing conditions.
Keegan99
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AG


We actually have a real epi curve - based on date of death - from the new Texas data.

The current peak day is July 12th. The curve will change as more data is added (today will be telling, as Tuesdays are generally a big data dump), and the recent two weeks are obviously the most incomplete. But that, combined with the recent drops in detected infections as well as rate of positive test results, points to the worst being in our rear view mirror.
swc93
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AG
Let's hope the worst is behind us, it should be by now. Was discussing with my wife yesterday about the death data lagging and how some will see the increase in deaths and go "SEE MASKS AREN'T WORKING!"
DCAggie13y
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AG
We are still at zero deaths under the age of 20 in Virginia out of 2,000+ COVID deaths.
fightingfarmer09
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Our county death count went from 1 to 15 on Monday. Today they announced the total was actually 7.

And people on this board complain about people not trusting the medical and health services industry.

My son counts better than these idiots.
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