Accuracy of various projections

900 Views | 1 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by HotardAg07
GeorgiAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I thought this was interesting

https://covid19-projections.com/about/#historical-performance
74Ag1
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
TMI
Who's the best
HotardAg07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
There are a few good ones, but if you follow the guy on Twitter you will see that he mostly likes to dunk on IHME and make it clear that it is a flawed model with a questionable history and should not be propped up by media and health experts since there are better models (including his own)

EDIT: For what it's worth, I have found his website (https://covid19-projections.com/) to be the most useful resource for tracking the numbers of the pandemic, since it not only forecasts into the future with uncertainty intervals, but he also shows what happened in the past -- not just what was reported but also estimated real numbers based on the available data. For example, he estimates R0, actual infections, etc. to make his model and makes the timewise data for that available over time.

The good news is that he forecasts we are past the peak in infections in the US and that we will peak in deaths in mid-to-late August as a result of the latency in deaths.
Refresh
Page 1 of 1
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.