For those that invest, which one do you think has the biggest upside, and success chances?

MRNA
PFE
JJ

Other?

Well . . .Pfizer and J&J are pretty huge and diversified organizations. JNJ has all sorts of divisions . . .consumer producs, medical devices, etc. Its pharma operations are just a third of its profits.

Moderna is a lottery ticket type of bet, It has already surged discounting future profits from its vaccine. It doesn't really have profits to speak of even after 10 years of operations. It is a sort of R&D lab for future medical breakthroughs.

Definitely more upside and downside to that stock.

AVEO

Look at Kodak after they got a government contract for pharmaceuticals. The government is going to give a crap ton of money to whoever gets there first.

Sorrento

2wealfth Man said:

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Uh.......you realize that vaccine makers are going to be extremely pressured to provide this at low or no cost to millions upon millions. If you want to play the vaccine game, play something that is going to pop when a vaccine is announced.....cruise lines, airlines, exepdia and the like.

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Already in on airlines, rental cars. Holding on cruise lines bc they keep dropping.

Considering reduced capacity, assuming better OL play and a running game gets established, A&M season tix may be a nice investment.

I'm afraid the roll out of any vaccine will be a worse cluster than testing. Smaller companies won't be able to mass produce or distribute quickly. The larger companies with vaccine experience will be able to produce but how do they prioritize who gets it. Who gets it and how fast? If govt officials get the first batch, it will be looked on as - no fair. If they don't get vaccinated early, response will be - what's wrong with it, they don't trust it, they know there are side effects.
Need to have staged roll out - 1st month health care, 2nd month first responders and those at high risk, then trickle on down. Some expectations will be the day it is announced people will complain - I've been trying for weeks and I can't get it.
Hope I'm wrong!

Every rash, anaphylactic reaction, and side effect will be blamed on the vaccine. Some may still get Covid after vaccination then there will be lawsuits that it didn't work.

KidDoc said:

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2wealfth Man said:

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Uh.......you realize that vaccine makers are going to be extremely pressured to provide this at low or no cost to millions upon millions. If you want to play the vaccine game, play something that is going to pop when a vaccine is announced.....cruise lines, airlines, exepdia and the like.

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Little to no cost to the patient. I promise you they won't be free just tax supported.

I do agree about the travel services booming if/once a vaccine is out.

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A couple of the big ones have already pledged to the Dems in Congress that they will be doing vaccines not for profit. Moderna has said "hell no" to that idea because it is potentially the only profits the company has And the stock would tank if they did that.

By "not for profit", they are getting the federal govt to pay them to build some nice new manufacturing facilities that they will likely repurpose for another project after COVID vaccine is played out so they will benefit in the long run, but in a rational market it shouldn't move the needle for their stock.

Big Al 1992 said:

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I'm afraid the roll out of any vaccine will be a worse cluster than testing. Smaller companies won't be able to mass produce or distribute quickly. The larger companies with vaccine experience will be able to produce but how do they prioritize who gets it. Who gets it and how fast? If govt officials get the first batch, it will be looked on as - no fair. If they don't get vaccinated early, response will be - what's wrong with it, they don't trust it, they know there are side effects.
Need to have staged roll out - 1st month health care, 2nd month first responders and those at high risk, then trickle on down. Some expectations will be the day it is announced people will complain - I've been trying for weeks and I can't get it.
Hope I'm wrong!

Every rash, anaphylactic reaction, and side effect will be blamed on the vaccine. Some may still get Covid after vaccination then there will be lawsuits that it didn't work.

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We already have a mechanism in place to deal with vaccine lawsuits. They go straight to the vaccine court with
no jury. The court generally denies the crazies and pays out from a fund that receives 75c for every vaccine dose administered.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Vaccine_Injury_Compensation_Program

Big Al 1992 said:

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I'm afraid the roll out of any vaccine will be a worse cluster than testing. Smaller companies won't be able to mass produce or distribute quickly. The larger companies with vaccine experience will be able to produce but how do they prioritize who gets it. Who gets it and how fast? If govt officials get the first batch, it will be looked on as - no fair. If they don't get vaccinated early, response will be - what's wrong with it, they don't trust it, they know there are side effects.
Need to have staged roll out - 1st month health care, 2nd month first responders and those at high risk, then trickle on down. Some expectations will be the day it is announced people will complain - I've been trying for weeks and I can't get it.
Hope I'm wrong!

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I can't imagine it won't be a staged roll out, and hopefully the administration outlines the way it will be rolled out before it is available. That won't prevent the "I have very small risk and can't understand why I couldn't get a vaccine day 1".

There is already whining that Trump hasn't provided a detailed plan for the roll out of an as yet to be determined vaccine at a as yet to be determined time several months away. Moderna and Oxford/AZ won't even complete their phase 3 trials until October. Even complaints that Trump hasn't said if providers would be supplied with syringes and needles and alcohol swabs. I find the panic amusing given BARDA and operation Warp Speed has already awarded several multimillion dollar contracts for the manufacture of needles, syringes, glass vials, and sterile fill-finish capacity. We have some time for the logistics plan, and the logistics plan probably changes depending on which vaccine works because Moderna and AZ will have different timeframes and volume ramps, and approving and rolling out both would be a third logistics plan.


Interesting thing about putting a General in charge, all generals do is war game and plan strategies. The pentagon plans strategies for every possible scenario they can think up so that if/when the need arises, they have a plan they can review and put into action. I imagine General Perna has a stack of plans depending on which vaccine is approved and when it will be ready and is updating them every time someone like Moderna says they moved up availability by 4-6 weeks.

The point has been made on CNBC occasionally that the Moderna execs have only been selling.
https://tracker.boardroomalpha.com/insider/company_name/Moderna%2C%20Inc./Year%20to%20date

INO

plain_o_llama said:

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The point has been made on CNBC occasionally that the Moderna execs have only been selling.
https://tracker.boardroomalpha.com/insider/company_name/Moderna%2C%20Inc./Year%20to%20date

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Is that totally unexpected? If I had been with the company for a long time, I would want to cash some in to make sure I lock in some of the gains. They know as well as anyone that nothing is guaranteed with regard to their vaccine. Im sure they already have enough stock that selling some and keeping some in case they hit it big is a pretty reasonable risk management approach.

I know someone that worked in a Moderna type situation albeit smaller. They are excited as things go to trial and disappointed when the trials are unsuccessful. It is entirely reasonable that someone having been through those cycles would want to take a few million off the table when they finally come available. With that said, it is a hedge.

I have no position in Moderna or the other vaccine makers.

AggieJosh2002 said:

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plain_o_llama said:

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The point has been made on CNBC occasionally that the Moderna execs have only been selling.
https://tracker.boardroomalpha.com/insider/company_name/Moderna%2C%20Inc./Year%20to%20date

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Is that totally unexpected? If I had been with the company for a long time, I would want to cash some in to make sure I lock in some of the gains. They know as well as anyone that nothing is guaranteed with regard to their vaccine. Im sure they already have enough stock that selling some and keeping some in case they hit it big is a pretty reasonable risk management approach.

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Bill Gates had a standing policy for years as CEO of Microsoft to sell an amount of MS stock every year.
When you know you are getting more as part of a bonus/compensation plan, there isn't an need to buy more.