Does it play out? By that I mean, that I have some questions about starting back up. I am not sure I understand how the herd works.

1. I supposed that if COVID-19 came into the NBA bubble, then they all might get COVID while the surrounding area was immune.
2. Tech companies With large populations, where the people officed at home and had little exposure, if they open the office, will that population need to work toward 20% infection rate?
3. Rule America - this one I assume there will be little outbreaks in places without 20% until the data saturates.

Curious, if people have an understanding of the micro portions of herd immunity.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Sweden is already there.

Correct

RandyAg98 said:

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But you have to have infections (or a safe, effective vaccine) to reach herd immunity, so hiding inside only kicks the can down the road and delays the inevitable.

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How I see it as well, unless someone can explain how this is not the case...

But, if you want to open up, then you have to understand what can happen so you know if you have a problem. It seems to me that Herd Immunity is a Macro concept. From where we are now, you have to understand the Micro potentials to make sure things play out. Baseball is shutting down again, when perhaps, these events resolve their "community herd immunity." Starting up the universities, I expect to see some COVID spike, but if you could understand the population mix, you might be able to predict the amount of spike and how fast it resolves. Then you could capture the risk and determine if things are out of control or not.

Capitol Ag said:

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RandyAg98 said:

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But you have to have infections (or a safe, effective vaccine) to reach herd immunity, so hiding inside only kicks the can down the road and delays the inevitable.

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How I see it as well, unless someone can explain how this is not the case...

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If a group/region can tolerate a lock down long enough, they could in theory last until a vaccine is available or perhaps the virus mutates into something less impactful to humans. Vaccine seems more likely but there is no guarantee.

HIT TO KILL said:

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Does it play out? By that I mean, that I have some questions about starting back up. I am not sure I understand how the herd works.

1. I supposed that if COVID-19 came into the NBA bubble, then they all might get COVID while the surrounding area was immune.
2. Tech companies With large populations, where the people officed at home and had little exposure, if they open the office, will that population need to work toward 20% infection rate?
3. Rule America - this one I assume there will be little outbreaks in places without 20% until the data saturates.

Curious, if people have an understanding of the micro portions of herd immunity.

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Herd immunity doesn't mean there are no more infections. Herd immunity means the spread of any infection is limited and slowed. So, yes, isolated and COVID free population is still vulnerable if they are together and someone brings it into the population.

We generally have herd immunity to things like measles due to vaccinations. However, we still have small outbreaks which can become significant in populations that have a high prevalence of anti vaccination.

A vulnerable person will always be at risk of catching it if they are exposed to an infected person but the likelihood of being exposed becomes very small if there are few infected people. And at herd immunity levels, R<1 so it doesn't spread very far.


This virus is/will be endemic. It will always be with us and continue to circulate in the population like the flu virus or cold viruses. The best solution is to limit spread when it does pop up.

As a side note, limiting spread by lockdown has proven to occur too slowly to meaningfully prevent an COVID outbreak. You can't anticipate when it will happen so you can't mandate a lockdown at the start of an COVID outbreak. You can only react when you see an increase, which is too slow.

A lot of the NBAers already got it before we hit the panic button.

Agsrback12 said:

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A lot of the NBAers already got it before so we hit the panic button.

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Fify

And to get the stockpiles of ppe to an adequate level

AgsMyDude said:

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The "hiding inside" was to slow the spread, not stop it entirely. It gave the medical professionals more time to learn and improve treatment.

Remember back on Feb when the major worry was ventilators then we found out it did more harm than good and should only be used as a last resort?

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This is exactly the point of "flattening the curve." That term always implied that you're stretching it out longer, but it's easier for hospitals to handle a lower rate of new patients than a deluge. I use that term because it's a similar concept to flooding... If you get 20inches of rain across two weeks, you're going to be fine. If you get 20 inches of rain in one day, you're screwed.

The point of slowing the spread is to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed at any point. That's the societal risk. If hospitals are overwhelmed, then all other normal activity that might cause harm becomes a lot more risky. If you get in a car accident and the hospital is overwhelmed with Covid cases, your level of care just dropped.

That's the main reason this is a big deal.

Spaulding said:

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And to get the stockpiles of ppe to an adequate level

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It's a travesty we didn't already have a stockpile of PPE and testing materials.

It was in March. What is the point now?

It should be better in 2 weeks

Complete Idiot said:

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Capitol Ag said:

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RandyAg98 said:

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But you have to have infections (or a safe, effective vaccine) to reach herd immunity, so hiding inside only kicks the can down the road and delays the inevitable.

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How I see it as well, unless someone can explain how this is not the case...

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If a group/region can tolerate a lock down long enough, they could in theory last until a vaccine is available or perhaps the virus mutates into something less impactful to humans. Vaccine seems more likely but there is no guarantee.

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Hopefully we won't tolerate that.