johns hopkins map....a lot of green!

4,460 Views | 19 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by PJYoung
Aggie95
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https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states

I think the next few weeks will be very interesting. We seem to have hit the peak in this resurgence. A lot of states are showing declining cases. Here in GA, local news is reporting a "rapid decline". This PLUS kids going "back to school"...yes, 80%+ are online classes, but it will still prevent a lot of gathering and going out, so that should also aid in the younger demographic numbers.
AggieAuditor
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We need to hope and pray there isn't another round of large scale protests.
JClark97
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AggieAuditor said:

We need to hope and pray there isn't another round of large scale protests.


Exactly
mccjames
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Just wait till we get closer to elections.

Guarantee we will have a lot of protests.
Easy come, Easy go
Kool
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I think numbers are going to go way up in the next few weeks, but hospitalizations and deaths hopefully do not go up. Many schools are mandating testing of students prior to return to school, especially colleges and universities who have on-campus housing. This will turn up a huge number of fairly asymptomatic people testing positive, and then many of those will "contact trace" and test friends and family members who will also test positive. The same can be said for many primary schools. We have already seen positive tests after two days of school in Georgia. Again, hopefully these are predominantly healthy persons who do not require inpatient treatment. Just a thought.
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Sisyphus
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Quote:

We need to hope and pray there isn't another round of large scale protests

The outbreak this summer was concentrated in the Southern States, Arizona and (to a lesser extent) California and was generally worse on a per capita basis in rural areas. The protests were mainly in cities all over, not just concentrated in southern states or Arizona. Why do you think protests were driving the out break?

(I'm sure that there was some spread from the protests but it seems to me that the recent rise in numbers would have happened even if there weren't any protests; possibly to a smaller extent, but it still would have happened and it would have still been significant)
AggieAuditor
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Sisyphus said:

Quote:

We need to hope and pray there isn't another round of large scale protests

Why do you think protests were driving the out break?

I don't have all the answers, but to the point above, specifically:

Covid spreads rapidly when people are very close together and are talking/yelling. This is why the experts were so worried about the beaches, right? If you take 50,000+ people, cram them together, and have them all yell at the same time, the virus is going to spread.

My comment is that I hope 50,000+ people don't gather shoulder to shoulder and yell at the top of their lungs for hours on end. I don't believe that the bandannas and paper masks provide much protection in this arena.
Proudag06
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AggieAuditor said:

My comment is that I hope 50,000+ people don't gather shoulder to shoulder and yell at the top of their lungs for hours on end. I don't believe that the bandannas and paper masks provide much protection in this arena.



Is this a veiled criticism of the college football programs who are hoping for and planing to have 50% capacity (roughly 50,000 fans screaming for 4+ hrs) or just a coincidence
AggieAuditor
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Proudag06 said:

AggieAuditor said:

My comment is that I hope 50,000+ people don't gather shoulder to shoulder and yell at the top of their lungs for hours on end. I don't believe that the bandannas and paper masks provide much protection in this arena.



Is this a veiled criticism of the college football programs who are hoping for and planing to have 50% capacity (roughly 50,000 fans screaming for 4+ hrs) or just a coincidence
Haha. Thought about this as I was typing it earlier. I trust (hope?) that there will be some separation in college stadiums.
PJYoung
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Proudag06 said:

AggieAuditor said:

My comment is that I hope 50,000+ people don't gather shoulder to shoulder and yell at the top of their lungs for hours on end. I don't believe that the bandannas and paper masks provide much protection in this arena.



Is this a veiled criticism of the college football programs who are hoping for and planing to have 50% capacity (roughly 50,000 fans screaming for 4+ hrs) or just a coincidence
Zero chance college football happens this fall.
beerad12man
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PJYoung said:

Proudag06 said:

AggieAuditor said:

My comment is that I hope 50,000+ people don't gather shoulder to shoulder and yell at the top of their lungs for hours on end. I don't believe that the bandannas and paper masks provide much protection in this arena.



Is this a veiled criticism of the college football programs who are hoping for and planing to have 50% capacity (roughly 50,000 fans screaming for 4+ hrs) or just a coincidence
Zero chance college football happens this fall.
I think this will be proven false. Whether or not we have fans is up for debate. Zero reason not to play and begin to get back to some semblance of previous life.
aggiesed8r
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Hoping for 100% attendance at football this fall, but looking at the data, it's not happening. Hoping and planning vs waiting and deciding are different.
DadHammer
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Why? In 8 weeks covid hospitalizations will be way way down. They are already falling and fast.
bmart97
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Sisyphus said:

Quote:

We need to hope and pray there isn't another round of large scale protests

The outbreak this summer was concentrated in the Southern States, Arizona and (to a lesser extent) California and was generally worse on a per capita basis in rural areas. The protests were mainly in cities all over, not just concentrated in southern states or Arizona. Why do you think protests were driving the out break?

(I'm sure that there was some spread from the protests but it seems to me that the recent rise in numbers would have happened even if there weren't any protests; possibly to a smaller extent, but it still would have happened and it would have still been significant)


There were BLM protests everywhere. Numerous in the RGV. We are not a densely packed Metro, but got hit hard. Don't discount the effect a couple of weeks after.
PJYoung
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beerad12man said:

PJYoung said:

Proudag06 said:

AggieAuditor said:

My comment is that I hope 50,000+ people don't gather shoulder to shoulder and yell at the top of their lungs for hours on end. I don't believe that the bandannas and paper masks provide much protection in this arena.



Is this a veiled criticism of the college football programs who are hoping for and planing to have 50% capacity (roughly 50,000 fans screaming for 4+ hrs) or just a coincidence
Zero chance college football happens this fall.
I think this will be proven false. Whether or not we have fans is up for debate. Zero reason not to play and begin to get back to some semblance of previous life.


They gonna pull the plug soon. Read Thamels piece on yahoo. The Pac 12 or B10 will be first and everybody else will follow suit. The presidents see too much liability. Not enough is known about possible long term effects of the virus yet.
Teslag
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PJYoung said:

beerad12man said:

PJYoung said:

Proudag06 said:

AggieAuditor said:

My comment is that I hope 50,000+ people don't gather shoulder to shoulder and yell at the top of their lungs for hours on end. I don't believe that the bandannas and paper masks provide much protection in this arena.



Is this a veiled criticism of the college football programs who are hoping for and planing to have 50% capacity (roughly 50,000 fans screaming for 4+ hrs) or just a coincidence
Zero chance college football happens this fall.
I think this will be proven false. Whether or not we have fans is up for debate. Zero reason not to play and begin to get back to some semblance of previous life.


They gonna pull the plug soon. Read Thamels piece on yahoo. The Pac 12 or B10 will be first and everybody else will follow suit. The presidents see too much liability. Not enough is known about possible long term effects of the virus yet.


This is one of the most dangerous things I see more and more now. We simply can't pause normal life until we know the "long term effects".
KlinkerAg11
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I agree.

How long do we keep kicking the can down the road?

What will be the next reason to keep life on hold?
P.U.T.U
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I think we will see another spike of cases but death rate will keep lowering. At this point the only way out of this is to let it go through the population. Stay healthy, sleep enough, and keep your BMI down.
Carnwellag2
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Aggie95 said:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states

I think the next few weeks will be very interesting. We seem to have hit the peak in this resurgence. A lot of states are showing declining cases. Here in GA, local news is reporting a "rapid decline". This PLUS kids going "back to school"...yes, 80%+ are online classes, but it will still prevent a lot of gathering and going out, so that should also aid in the younger demographic numbers.
You are flawed in thinking This is resurgence. The virus just moved from one area of the country to another.

A resurgence would look like a camel on a graph.

Each area has just had one spike.
Carnwellag2
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Sisyphus said:

Quote:

We need to hope and pray there isn't another round of large scale protests

The outbreak this summer was concentrated in the Southern States, Arizona and (to a lesser extent) California and was generally worse on a per capita basis in rural areas. The protests were mainly in cities all over, not just concentrated in southern states or Arizona. Why do you think protests were driving the out break?

(I'm sure that there was some spread from the protests but it seems to me that the recent rise in numbers would have happened even if there weren't any protests; possibly to a smaller extent, but it still would have happened and it would have still been significant)
Because we have been told if you don't socially distance you spread the disease and the protests were large amounts of people crammed in small spaces


Rural areas it only takes a few cases for it to appear worse per capita
PJYoung
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Leather Tuscadero said:

PJYoung said:

beerad12man said:

PJYoung said:

Proudag06 said:

AggieAuditor said:

My comment is that I hope 50,000+ people don't gather shoulder to shoulder and yell at the top of their lungs for hours on end. I don't believe that the bandannas and paper masks provide much protection in this arena.



Is this a veiled criticism of the college football programs who are hoping for and planing to have 50% capacity (roughly 50,000 fans screaming for 4+ hrs) or just a coincidence
Zero chance college football happens this fall.
I think this will be proven false. Whether or not we have fans is up for debate. Zero reason not to play and begin to get back to some semblance of previous life.


They gonna pull the plug soon. Read Thamels piece on yahoo. The Pac 12 or B10 will be first and everybody else will follow suit. The presidents see too much liability. Not enough is known about possible long term effects of the virus yet.


This is one of the most dangerous things I see more and more now. We simply can't pause normal life until we know the "long term effects".
Yep. Easy to say when you're not the one that is possibly on the hook. Large organizations are very risk adverse.

This is what I was talking about.



Quote:

Feeney's situation is the biggest force behind the scenes at the administrative level. His mother's viral Facebook post about her son's struggle with COVID-19, posted in a forum dedicated to the concerned parents of college football players, had a chilling effect on athletic administrators and beyond.

Feeney's mother, Deborah Rucker, detailed her son going to the emergency room with breathing issues and enduring "14 days of hell." The words that have administrators most nervous were this: "Now we are dealing with possible heart issues."

Many schools have instilled a protocol that includes extensive cardiology reviews to be cleared to go back. But this is why a "novel virus" is so thorny for administrators to deal with: We won't know the impact for years. For administrators, Feeney's story represents both health risk and financial liability. And the early studies of COVID-19 and its impact on the heart suggest a "lasting impact."

"It's been important that most of the cases for this demographic of healthy student athletes have been asymptomatic or with just mild symptoms," said another high-ranking official of the cases that have emerged. "The Feeney story makes everyone pause on the idea of just accepting and managing positive cases."

The bottom line is that there's just not a lot known.

FCS is already at 40% of their schools opting out of playing this fall. The NCAA ruled that if it hits 50% then there won't be a fall championship given. So expect to see FCS moving to the spring (at best) here in the next week or two. Division III has already cancelled their fall championships in all sports.

Anybody that is saying they are sure Division I is going to play football this fall doesn't know what they are talking about.

EDIT: full disclosure - I am a close to 20 year season ticket holder and I would be one of the 50,000 in attendance at all 5 conference home games this fall if that somehow still happens. I don't give it a 20 in 1 shot of happening tho.
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