Effect of mask ordinances in Hawaii?

9,666 Views | 69 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by nortex97
Keegan99
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Being in the middle of the Pacific, Hawaii is not going to be affected by more lax policies in neighboring states. Therefore one would think the data produced there would be a good experiment on widespread mask adoption as a mitigation measure.

Any ideas as to why the mask policies have produces these results?


aggietony2010
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It's almost like masks have zero impact.
One Eyed Reveille
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Because masks really dont affect transmission.
Tailgate88
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How much longer before the public starts to revolt?
AggieSarah01
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What is your source for this. It needs to be sharable!
Keegan99
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https://covidtracking.com/data/state/hawaii#historical
AggieSarah01
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Thank you!
I Am A Critic
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Does anything here coincide with the arrival of more people from the mainland or other international points?
Username checks out.
14TheRoad
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It's simple, if you pee on someone while wearing a mask they're kind of safe, if you pee on them and y'all are both wearing masks they are definitely safe, if you pee on them and you're not wearing a mask they get COVID. How hard is that for y'all to understand? It's science!
Keegan99
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I Am A Critic said:

Does anything here coincide with the arrival of more people from the mainland or other international points?

Maybe? But there is a pretty strict quarantine policy for new arrivals.


Quote:

Effective, Thursday, March 26, 2020, Governor David Ige has ordered that all persons entering the State of Hawai'i to self-quarantine for 14 days or for the duration of their stay in Hawai'i, whichever is shorter. Upon arrival, residents are required to quarantine in a designated location in their residence. Visitors will quarantine in their hotel room, rented lodging or in a room if staying at a residence. Quarantined individuals may only leave their designated location for medical emergencies or to seek medical care. Failure to comply with all rules and protocols related to quarantines is punishable by fines of up to $5,000 and/or imprisonment of up to one year.

https://health.hawaii.gov/news/covid-19/covid-19-daily-update-march-23-2020/
mccjames
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It is definitely worth investigating, I would think that the underlying cause is group gatherings without masks, such as birthday party or wedding.
Easy come, Easy go
NASAg03
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Compare Hawaii with the Philippines, Vietnam, Cuba, and Belize, and notice they all see a large increase in cases around Aug 3. Only outlier is Dominican Republic.

Care to guess what they all have in common?
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
One Eyed Reveille
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NASAg03 said:

Compare Hawaii with the Philippines, Vietnam, Cuba, and Belize, and notice they all see a large increase in cases around Aug 3. Only outlier is Dominican Republic.

Care to guess what they all have in common?


They can all flip over? Dang it nope.

They arw all communist?
chris1515
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Are people actually wearing the masks?
BiochemAg97
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chris1515 said:

Are people actually wearing the masks?
If people aren't wearing them, then clearly mask mandates are ineffective. Might as well end the mandate and encourage people to wear a mask anyway.
ORAggieFan
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chris1515 said:

Are people actually wearing the masks?

It's a valid question and a lot of it depends. Here in San Diego I've seen masks everywhere they are supposed but also see people hating them and not wearing such as at houses, including myself. There is zero evidence they work but there is also little evidence they don't. But, since there is no evidence they do work they probably shouldn't be mandated.
Phat32
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Virus gonna virus.
Complete Idiot
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Lots of studies show masks reduce the spread of airborne viruses, this is why medical personnel have been wearing masks for decades. Eliminate? No. Does the mask material and layering matter? Yes. But plenty of evidence showing high quality masks reduce spread, so I don't get people saying there is no evidence they help.HELP not STOP.

The data in the OP is presented in a way to make one think the only things changing in Hawaii were the requirement to wear masks indoors and outdoors, in reality a thinking person realizes there are always many variables. Hawaii had banned inter island travel, that ban was lifted Jun 16th. Cell phone data shows how people in Hawaii grew tired of lockdowns and started moving around prior to the case spike seen in the OP https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/08/how-bad-is-hawaii-at-social-distancing-heres-what-the-data-shows/. There is no data that proves the extent to which residents comply with the indoor/outdoor masks edicts, and that data is more valuable than that government's stated mandate - a scientific study would require data around participation.

All that being said, Hawaii ranks 46th out of 50 states in test confirmed cases per 1 million population, and 50th out of 50 states in deaths per 1 million population. They are doing very well, despite how the OP graphs try to twist info. How many states required indoor and outdoors masking? I guess it doesnt matter, Hawaii beats all states in the most important stat - deaths per million residents.
Phat32
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All this means is that Hawaii's peak will be later. And their economy will be in worse shape. There is no other argument.
NASAg03
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Sarduakar said:

NASAg03 said:

Compare Hawaii with the Philippines, Vietnam, Cuba, and Belize, and notice they all see a large increase in cases around Aug 3. Only outlier is Dominican Republic.

Care to guess what they all have in common?


They can all flip over? Dang it nope.

They arw all communist?


Same latitude. 20 deg N.

Virus gonna virus and follows a common pattern. There's a reason the northen climes, regardless of population density, traffic patterns, and international travel, were hit hardest first.

Policy and masks did very little other than delay the inevitable and damage the economy.
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
tysker
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All masks are not equal which is why the mask mandates are not adequate. Some masks significantly slow transmission but others, not so much. A proper mask mandate would clarify and regulate the type, form, use and purpose of masks. All other mandates are for show.
CDub06
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I'm skeptical of the correlation. As always, the number of cases is not as significant a metric as people try to make it. Look at hospitalizations and deaths.

I know the islands have not been homogenous in the mask requirement. Also as time progresses, more people are out in the community, doing things like riding buses, and being less careful. And most likely, having more tests.

Masks help prevent the spread. There are other behaviors to be critical of, I don't know why some are so intent on painting mask wearers as a sort of brain washed sheeple.
Keegan99
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So the theory is the massive spike would have been worse without masks?

That the benefits of masks are unfalsifiable?
Austin Ag
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You know Keegan99, that type of info will get your post removed here.
tysker
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Keegan99 said:

So the theory is the massive spike would have been worse without masks?

That the benefits of masks are unfalsifiable?

I think the data is tainted because of improper application and general miseducation.
You're still much more likely to get infected from people you know (friends, family, and coworkers) in comfortable situations like at home or the workplace than from a random interaction especially when less than 15 mins. However, mask rules and implementation are mostly concerned with the random occurrences and not with the more common transmission vectors.
BiochemAg97
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tysker said:

Keegan99 said:

So the theory is the massive spike would have been worse without masks?

That the benefits of masks are unfalsifiable?

I think the data is tainted because of improper application and general miseducation.
You're still much more likely to get infected from people you know (friends, family, and coworkers) in comfortable situations like at home or the workplace than from a random interaction especially when less than 15 mins. However, mask rules and implementation are mostly concerned with the random occurrences and not with the more common transmission vectors.

Bingo.

IIRC, China said something like 80% of the cases in Wuhan were transmitted within the household. Italy had similar numbers. Sure, some of that is because they went into full lockdown and all but eliminated the random occurrences, but all the data point to extended exposure at relatively close distances.

That isn't saying the random encounter can't spread the virus, but the masks don't 100% stop it either.

Also, wearing a mask at your house to prevent spread between family members is probably not the answer either. Even if the mask cuts your risk significantly, there is still probably a pretty significant risk of spread from living in close proximity.
Complete Idiot
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Keegan99 said:

So the theory is the massive spike would have been worse without masks?

That the benefits of masks are unfalsifiable?

Last step: deny scientific studies and state they are falsified. Never mind that most studies on the effectiveness of masks were conducted in the decade before Covid 19 even emerged, and would not have the same potentially negative political or social influences on outcome.

I can discuss the fact masks ordinances may not have enough effectiveness to warrant their implementation due to the fact not enough people comply to make much impact, there are studies showing that as well. But to state masks studies showing they slow the spread of airborne illness are falsified is basically just waving the "fake news" wand over things you don't like.
Keegan99
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Can anyone provide a link to these studies and their conclusions?

They evidently weren't conclusive enough to convince several European nations of their benefit.

Netherlands:

Quote:

Dutch public health officials and the national government are unbending with respect to what they consider to be lack of scientific evidence on the efficacy of non-medical masks in limiting the spread of the novel coronavirus. On Wednesday, July 29th, at a press conference, officials maintained the line they've adopted since March: "There's no scientific evidence for the efficacy of non-medical masks."


https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/08/01/dutch-officials-adamant-about-lack-of-mask-efficacy-in-preventing-coronavirus-transmission/

Finland:

Quote:

Research has shown that widespread use of face masks have little or no effect on reducing the spread of upper respiratory infections, according to a report presented a government-appointed working group led by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health (MSAH) on Friday.


https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/report_little_or_no_benefit_to_widespread_mask_use/1137647

Several other countries reached similar conclusions.


Maybe the Finnish and Dutch scientists hadn't seen the right studies?

tysker
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Quote:

But to state masks studies showing they slow the spread of airborne illness are falsified is basically just waving the "fake news" wand over things you don't like.
Studies show that some masks work very well, some masks work decently and others are essentially useless depending on usage, form factor, material, etc.


eta; the issue for the common person is available high level, quality masks that work really well. Unfortunately those are expensive, hard to use properly and are unpopular with casual users. Many of the popular and easy to use masks all too often fall into the 'essentially useless' category.
Keegan99
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Never claimed that the studies were falsified.

Maybe this will help: https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Unfalsifiability

In this case, the claim is that masks are effective, and any rise in detected infections after mask ordinances is brushed aside with "but for the masks, it would have been worse!", and therefore the claim of mask ordinance effectiveness is unfalsifiable.
RandyAg98
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yukmonkey said:

All this means is that Hawaii's peak will be later. And their economy will be in worse shape. There is no other argument.
This has been shown in literally every region measured. I don't know why some people, leaders, administrators refuse to see it. The spike is a "when" not "if". Lockdowns only delay the inevitable.
ORAggieFan
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Austin Ag said:

You know Keegan99, that type of info will get your post removed here.
Wow, you aren't kidding. This OP shows one of many examples that mask ordinances are ineffective, yet comments supporting that get deleted here. From Hawaii to Los Angeles to many European countries to what the CDC has said about masks around the flu, it's been proven over and over. Saying an ordinance is ineffective is not the same as saying the mask by itself is ineffective. It is saying that the behavior of the general public regarding their masks render them ineffective. This is a combination of poor handling, improper fitting and lack of wearing in many scenarios, including home.
CinchAG97
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Interesting to me that mask/lockdown proponents switch from focusing on cases to "deaths per million" when presented with cases data that masks are ineffective in preventing case spread.

If deaths per million is the standard, and I agree that it SHOULD be the standard, then mask ordinances and definitely school lockdowns are asinine and should be eliminated immediately. Deaths per million school age kids are negligible.
deadbq03
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NASAg03 said:

Sarduakar said:

NASAg03 said:

Compare Hawaii with the Philippines, Vietnam, Cuba, and Belize, and notice they all see a large increase in cases around Aug 3. Only outlier is Dominican Republic.

Care to guess what they all have in common?


They can all flip over? Dang it nope.

They arw all communist?


Same latitude. 20 deg N.

Virus gonna virus and follows a common pattern. There's a reason the northen climes, regardless of population density, traffic patterns, and international travel, were hit hardest first.

Policy and masks did very little other than delay the inevitable and damage the economy.
The latitude argument is such total BS.

Places like Poland and Ukraine also saw an uptick at the same time.

Just about every known seasonal virus gets better when it's warmer, not worse.
deadbq03
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ORAggieFan said:


Saying an ordinance is ineffective is not the same as saying the mask by itself is ineffective. It is saying that the behavior of the general public regarding their masks render them ineffective. This is a combination of poor handling, improper fitting and lack of wearing in many scenarios, including home.
I agree with this, but I'd add lack of compliance and lack of enforcement before anything you listed.
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