More over stated data to scare the public

Did you read the actual article? It was a tough read, but I don't think it says that our COVID mortality rate estimates were 10x what they should've been. I could be wrong, but I think it's saying that the comparison to the flu CFR (while actually referring to the IFR number) made it seem like it could be 10x higher than it really was. It sounded like the article said that the correct numbers were used when speaking to Congress, just the words used were incorrect.

But like I said, it was a tough read, and it seemed as though the article was making a point about just being more careful with terms used.

traxter said:

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Did you read the actual article? It was a tough read, but I don't think it says that our COVID mortality rate estimates were 10x what they should've been. I could be wrong, but I think it's saying that the comparison to the flu CFR (while actually referring to the IFR number) made it seem like it could be 10x higher than it really was. It sounded like the article said that the correct numbers were used when speaking to Congress, just the words used were incorrect.

But like I said, it was a tough read, and it seemed as though the article was making a point about just being more careful with terms used.

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By using the wrong words for influenza, it made COVID seem 10x worse than a bad flu. Thus everyone said we would have 10x the deaths as a bad flu which would have been a lot more.

If they had accurately reported the number for influenza, then the same response as the previous pandemic flus would have been fine.

Why we continue to compare COVID to flu, an endemic virus with immunity present in a large part of the population, vaccine, and fairly well known outcomes, is beyond me. I'm talking to both 'sides' here. I mean I get it, but I also don't. And then using that as a 'gotcha' using a massive dose of hindsight is... odd.

CFR and IFR (what we could determine from sero-studies) for COVID, especially in the beginning, were alarmingly high, especially if you wanted to do the flu comparison. I don't see the point of this paper.

Are the 190k deaths a blunder also?

You don't understand why people want to compare the significance of an unknown issue to a known issue?

How many of the 190k do you think died from Covid being more than 50% responsible? What would the additional life expectancy of the 190k have been without Covid?

ETFan said:

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Are the 190k deaths a blunder also?

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Yes

ETFan said:

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Why we continue to compare COVID to flu, an endemic virus with immunity present in a large part of the population, vaccine, and fairly well known outcomes, is beyond me. I'm talking to both 'sides' here. I mean I get it, but I also don't. And then using that as a 'gotcha' using a massive dose of hindsight is... odd.

CFR and IFR (what we could determine from sero-studies) for COVID, especially in the beginning, were alarmingly high, especially if you wanted to do the flu comparison. I don't see the point of this paper.

Are the 190k deaths a blunder also?

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"Flu" is a lot more complicated than you seem to think.

ETFan said:

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Why we continue to compare COVID to flu, an endemic virus with immunity present in a large part of the population, vaccine, and fairly well known outcomes, is beyond me. I'm talking to both 'sides' here. I mean I get it, but I also don't. And then using that as a 'gotcha' using a massive dose of hindsight is... odd.

CFR and IFR (what we could determine from sero-studies) for COVID, especially in the beginning, were alarmingly high, especially if you wanted to do the flu comparison. I don't see the point of this paper.

Are the 190k deaths a blunder also?

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3 million Americans died each year before Covid 19.

A lot of those 190k were going to die in the next 12 months regardless of Covid-19 coming here or not.

I just had a relative die with Covid. She was 80 and lived in a nursing home with long list of comorbidities including advanced dementia. She was going to die very soon no matter what but it happened to be Covid that pushed her over the edge so she gets to be counted.

AG @ HEART said:

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Another article backing what I have been saying for months.. but this statement will prob be considered political and deleted...

Don't worry... plenty more articles like this one will soon be finally understood in this forum...

This is no longer a Pandemic either !

ETFan said:

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Why we continue to compare COVID to flu, an endemic virus with immunity present in a large part of the population, vaccine, and fairly well known outcomes, is beyond me. I'm talking to both 'sides' here. I mean I get it, but I also don't. And then using that as a 'gotcha' using a massive dose of hindsight is... odd.

CFR and IFR (what we could determine from sero-studies) for COVID, especially in the beginning, were alarmingly high, especially if you wanted to do the flu comparison. I don't see the point of this paper.

Are the 190k deaths a blunder also?

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Time and science will prove we have a large % of the population that is immune to Covid to a substantial level.

ETFan said:

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ANSC Ag said:

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OldArmyBrent said:

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ANSC Ag said:

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You don't understand why people want to compare the significance of an unknown issue to a known issue?

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I mean... we always try to compare unknowns to knowns so that we can... know them.

That's not a serious question, is it? No, surely not. I've been trolled. Well done.

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Yes, it's self explanatory. That's why I responded to the previous poster pondering why people bother comparing Covid to the flu.

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I'm sorry if you don't understand why comparing an endemic virus with a widely available vaccine and known treatments / management to one that isn't, doesn't, and isn't fully understood yet as a means of minimization might be a bad approach.

I'll try to simplify: We find out the flu and COVID have the exact same mortality rate. Now what? How does that help us given what I've said above?

That was the point of my post. What are we doing comparing COVID mortality to flu mortality?

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You need to understand context. It wasn't to compare flu treatment to covid treatment.

The comparison of IFR/CFR numbers of diseases (even if the diseases has no relationship) provides an understanding of the severity of the new disease. Having a good understanding of the scale of a new disease is useful in calibrating a response. This is about the same as a pandemic influenza and this is 10x worse than a pandemic influenza have the potential to produce very different responses. Additionally, since influenza is a respiratory virus like SARS-CoV2, it is reasonable to model the spread of SARS-CoV2 using an influenza model. Something like Ebola would be a bad comparison because even though Ebola has a higher IFR/CFR, it spread is completely different making it easier to contain resulting in fewer overall deaths.

Also, you need to get beyond considering the flu just "an endemic virus". Influenza is a family of many many viruses, just like coronavirus is a family of many many different viruses. The Flu vaccine each year inoculates against 3-4 of those Influenza viruses expected to be widespread during the flu season. That guess is made almost a year in advance and is sometimes wildly wrong. Additionally, there are periodic flu pandemic when an animal flu jumps to humans or anther event creates a novel influenza. H1N1/09 was responsible for the 2009 flu pandemic. H1N5 (bird flu) was responsible for outbreaks in 2005. H3N2 was responsible for an bad flu season in 2018. Note also, analysis of the 2018 flu vaccines for 2018 found it to be around 10-20% effective against H3N2. Acting like all influenzas are the same endemic virus makes as much sense as claiming coronavirus is just an endemic virus since there are 4 HuCoVs that are endemic. All it takes is the wrong virus (influenza, coronavirus, or something else) to make the leap from animals to human for us to have a pandemic.

ETFan said:

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ANSC Ag said:

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OldArmyBrent said:

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ANSC Ag said:

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You don't understand why people want to compare the significance of an unknown issue to a known issue?

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I mean... we always try to compare unknowns to knowns so that we can... know them.

That's not a serious question, is it? No, surely not. I've been trolled. Well done.

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Yes, it's self explanatory. That's why I responded to the previous poster pondering why people bother comparing Covid to the flu.

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I'm sorry if you don't understand why comparing an endemic virus with a widely available vaccine and known treatments / management to one that isn't, doesn't, and isn't fully understood yet as a means of minimization might be a bad approach.

I'll try to simplify: We find out the flu and COVID have the exact same mortality rate. Now what? How does that help us given what I've said above?

That was the point of my post. What are we doing comparing COVID mortality to flu mortality?

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To your middle paragraph, if we find out the flu, which we have treatments for and alter no lifestyles, and COVID have the same mortality rate, that's not a big deal to you?

BiochemAg97 said:

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ETFan said:

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ANSC Ag said:

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OldArmyBrent said:

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ANSC Ag said:

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You don't understand why people want to compare the significance of an unknown issue to a known issue?

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I mean... we always try to compare unknowns to knowns so that we can... know them.

That's not a serious question, is it? No, surely not. I've been trolled. Well done.

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Yes, it's self explanatory. That's why I responded to the previous poster pondering why people bother comparing Covid to the flu.

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I'm sorry if you don't understand why comparing an endemic virus with a widely available vaccine and known treatments / management to one that isn't, doesn't, and isn't fully understood yet as a means of minimization might be a bad approach.

I'll try to simplify: We find out the flu and COVID have the exact same mortality rate. Now what? How does that help us given what I've said above?

That was the point of my post. What are we doing comparing COVID mortality to flu mortality?

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You need to understand context. It wasn't to compare flu treatment to covid treatment.

The comparison of IFR/CFR numbers of diseases (even if the diseases has no relationship) provides an understanding of the severity of the new disease. Having a good understanding of the scale of a new disease is useful in calibrating a response. This is about the same as a pandemic influenza and this is 10x worse than a pandemic influenza have the potential to produce very different responses. Additionally, since influenza is a respiratory virus like SARS-CoV2, it is reasonable to model the spread of SARS-CoV2 using an influenza model. Something like Ebola would be a bad comparison because even though Ebola has a higher IFR/CFR, it spread is completely different making it easier to contain resulting in fewer overall deaths.

Also, you need to get beyond considering the flu just "an endemic virus". Influenza is a family of many many viruses, just like coronavirus is a family of many many different viruses. The Flu vaccine each year inoculates against 3-4 of those Influenza viruses expected to be widespread during the flu season. That guess is made almost a year in advance and is sometimes wildly wrong. Additionally, there are periodic flu pandemic when an animal flu jumps to humans or anther event creates a novel influenza. H1N1/09 was responsible for the 2009 flu pandemic. H1N5 (bird flu) was responsible for outbreaks in 2005. H3N2 was responsible for an bad flu season in 2018. Note also, analysis of the 2018 flu vaccines for 2018 found it to be around 10-20% effective against H3N2. Acting like all influenzas are the same endemic virus makes as much sense as claiming coronavirus is just an endemic virus since there are 4 HuCoVs that are endemic. All it takes is the wrong virus (influenza, coronavirus, or something else) to make the leap from animals to human for us to have a pandemic.

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This is a fantastic response although I'm not sure the poster actually wanted a response - more, he was couching an argument in the guise of a question.