COVID-19 May Have Been Circulating in LA in December

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Keegan99
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1:47p, 9/10/20
AG
https://www.dailynews.com/2020/09/10/covid-19-may-have-been-circulating-in-la-in-december-ucla-finds/


Quote:
LOS ANGELES UCLA researchers and colleagues have found that there was a significant increase in patients with coughs and acute respiratory failure at UCLA Health hospitals and clinics beginning in late December, suggesting that COVID-19 may have been circulating in the area months before the first definitive cases in the US were identified, it was announced Thursday.

This sudden spike in patients with these symptoms, which continued through February, represents an unexpected 50% increase in such cases when compared with the same time period in each of the previous five years.



Quote:
The researchers evaluated more than 10 million health system and patient visit records for UCLA Health outpatient, emergency department and hospital facilities, comparing data from the period between Dec. 1 and Feb. 29 the months prior to increased public awareness of COVID-19 in the U.S. with data from the same period over the previous five years.

They found that outpatient clinic visits by UCLA patients seeking care for coughs increased by over 50% and exceeded the average number of visits for the same complaint over the prior five years by more than 1,000. Similarly, they discovered a significant excess in the number of patients seen in emergency departments for reports of coughs and of patients hospitalized with acute respiratory failure during this time period. These excesses remained even after accounting for changes in patient populations and seasonal variation, according to UCLA.


Starting to see more and more evidence that China lied extensively, and that the US lived with COVID for a good while before we panicked.
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P.U.T.U
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2:05p, 9/10/20
AG
I know several people (about 10-15) that got sick in January and tested positive for antibodies and know of 1 that got sick in December that had a bad case for 6 weeks (preexisting conditions) that also tested positive for antibodies. They could have gotten sick between them but they would have been asymptomatic.

Several of those people I know that tested positive for antibodies were part of the same family as my uncle. After a botched knee surgery he had some issues but started to come out of it. Got flu like symptoms while recovering, on a vent 5 days later and dead on day 7. He was getting over sepsis and had checked just about every box for comorbidities. At that time no one was testing for COVID so it is impossible to tell but I know he did not test positive for the flu
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amercer
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2:24p, 9/10/20
AG
https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/09/10/los-angeles-patients-covid-coughing/

Interesting, although there is reason to be skeptical. I wonder how this would line up with the strain tracking that has been done.
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BadMoonRisin
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3:09p, 9/10/20
AG
But i was told that "the science was settled" on this in late march. As if that were even possible "2 months" into a global pandemic of a novel virus.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
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The Fall Guy
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10:12p, 9/10/20
AG
It was here. Hell it was in Texas in December.

My wife and I went to Brownsville in mid December. We were staying at a hotel where Space x employees were living. We were in the elevator and a man was coughing saying he just got back from California and was sick as a dog there.

1 week later my wife had an uncontrollable cough for 2 weeks and stopped coughing 4 weeks after that. Fever and malaise. 2 of our friends got sick early January from her we elieve and had the same symptoms.

She has not had the antibody test. All of her relatives had it this summer and recovered.

This has been here for a while.

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Phat32
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10:18p, 9/10/20
AG
So either:

1. It was running through China for months before and they've lied through the entire thing.

2. China was the first to notice it and thus assumed it was new.

3. Something I haven't considered
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AG @ HEART
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10:53p, 9/10/20
there's no telling how many of us have had it with symptoms and without prior to the new year.
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Federale01
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12:25a, 9/11/20
AG
With the close connection between CA and Asia, especially LA and SF, it's simply implausible it was not one of the first places outside of China to be affected.
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Phat32
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6:00a, 9/11/20
AG
China only having 85,000 cases as of yesterday is the biggest joke of all time.
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cc_ag92
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6:12a, 9/11/20
AG
Every single person I know who was SURE they had it in January or February and then got an antibodies test came back as negative for the antibodies.
If it was prevalent in December or January, but we didn't protect nursing homes because we didn't know we needed to protect them, why didn't it roar through the homes then like it did in Seattle and New York later?

I would LOVE some proof that it was here in December or January and that many more of us have had it than we know, but I just don't see how that's true just because I wish it was true.
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setsmachine
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In reply to cc_ag92 • 7:18a, 9/11/20
AG
cc_ag92 said:
Every single person I know who was SURE they had it in January or February and then got an antibodies test came back as negative for the antibodies.
If it was prevalent in December or January, but we didn't protect nursing homes because we didn't know we needed to protect them, why didn't it roar through the homes then like it did in Seattle and New York later?

I would LOVE some proof that it was here in December or January and that many more of us have had it than we know, but I just don't see how that's true just because I wish it was true.

Good question. Also didn't excess deaths in US really start to spike (up from historical levels) around March?
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Keegan99
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In reply to setsmachine • 7:30a, 9/11/20
AG
Excess deaths requires some really large numbers of infections, especially in the midst of flu season, when "normal" deaths are at their peak.

With an IFR of 0.5%, if you wanted 1,000 excess deaths you would need about 200,000 infections. And even then, a sufficient number of them would need to be elderly and frail.

Recall that the virus was circulating in Seattle for many weeks, but the only reasons it was discovered were 1) UW was running a flu study and 2) the virus made its way into a nursing home.
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to cc_ag92 • 11:10a, 9/11/20
AG
cc_ag92 said:
Every single person I know who was SURE they had it in January or February and then got an antibodies test came back as negative for the antibodies.
If it was prevalent in December or January, but we didn't protect nursing homes because we didn't know we needed to protect them, why didn't it roar through the homes then like it did in Seattle and New York later?

I would LOVE some proof that it was here in December or January and that many more of us have had it than we know, but I just don't see how that's true just because I wish it was true.
Because logic.

There were flights from Wuhan to anywhere in America for several months before the "first reported case" was found and even after the outbreaks in China.

It's either a.) insanely infectious or b.) it took 3 months to get here.

You get to pick one, not both.

And its not exactly conjecture that "many more of us have had it than we know". That's a fact. Most people either had no symptoms or thought it was seasonal allergies. It's not until the wave of "OMG PLAGUE" in the media that people started flooding the hospitals thinking they were going to die.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
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ramblin_ag02
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11:25a, 9/11/20
AG
Best I've read so far pins the Chinese outbreak starting Oct/Nov of 2019. So some spread to CA and other areas by December isn't that far-fetched. That being said, the data doesn't really support it. Seeing the impact in places like Italy, Spain, and New York makes me skeptical that it could be running rampant in the US for 3 full months before the commonly accepted timetable without anyone noticing.

I've had the same experience in regards to the "I know it had it in January" crowd. No one testing positive for antibioties with that story in rural North Texas
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Agsrback12
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11:10a, 9/13/20
How many people in our total population are low vitamin D? Maybe it simply didn't find them in mass for a while. There are some nursing homes it didn't run rough shot through even tho it was there.

Lots of things don't add up with this deal is the most solid information at this point.
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Keegan99
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 11:18a, 9/13/20
AG
But there WAS community spread in Texas in January.



"About a week later, their calls reached the right person. Leonard Seiple of Lewisville fell ill in late January with symptoms that resembled those of COVID-19. Although he hadn't traveled outside the state, he felt right away that he had caught something nastier than the flu.

Seiple, 56, who runs Dallas Business Realty, a commercial real estate company, developed chills, aches, fatigue and a terrible cough. He couldn't sleep. His lungs hurt. He visited his doctor, who said he likely had the flu, and spent about 10 days recovering at home.

During his annual exam at a Denton Veterans Affairs clinic in early April, he told his doctor he believed he'd had COVID-19. "Do you want to find out for sure?" his doctor asked. She told him that Texas Health Dallas was looking for plasma donors. On April 8, Seiple visited the hospital to be screened. He tested negative for COVID-19 but positive for COVID-19 antibodies, indicating that he'd likely had the infection. In addition, his blood type was a match for Michael's."
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amercer
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11:20a, 9/13/20
AG
Every place with a large confirmed outbreak, has had large numbers of hospitalization and deaths.

So while these theories of earlier widespread infections are interesting, they can't really account for what has been seen for confirmed outbreaks. Further, the genomics we have on the viral spread don't yet support this theory.
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ramblin_ag02
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In reply to Keegan99 • 12:20p, 9/13/20
AG
That's interesting, and you may be right. But it's not definitive. He was sick with something in January and tested positive for antibodies in early April. The January illness could have been something else, and he could have had a mild COVID infection in early March. There was confirmed community spread by then.

I'm not saying for sure that it wasn't spreading in January, it just doesn't match up with the stats. How much to trust the stats is an entirely different issue
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Capitol Ag
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1:01p, 9/13/20
AG
Hey, I will get laughed at by some but I do not get very sick very often and had similar symptoms to Covid in late December. But of course, many will say that they are tired of hearing about that kind pre-March Covid stories from people. Hey, it might have been nothing, but it wasn't flu and it messed me up for a week pretty damn hard, which only the flu and food poisoning have ever done. Common colds just slow me down, but I do not miss training days when I have a cold for the most part, yet I was out during this. But I'm an idiot for thinking it MIGHT have been Covid. So I just "assume" it isn't b/c it doesn't flow with the national narrative.

Personally, I feel in a few years there will be a small, back page type of report where most medical experts agree that Covid had been in the US in late 2019 and was prevalent but was misdiagnosed. Guess we will see.
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cc_ag92
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In reply to Capitol Ag • 1:07p, 9/13/20
AG
Have you given blood or gotten your antibodies tested? If not, why not?

I'm not laughing at you. I would love to hear some proven stories of Covid being widely spread in Texas and elsewhere in the U.S.

Unfortunately, every single person I know who experienced the same type of illness you did and thought they certainly must have had it has come back negative for the antibodies.
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ramblin_ag02
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In reply to Capitol Ag • 1:23p, 9/13/20
AG
My advice to everyone who says that is to go donate blood and get tested for antibodies. Win-win for everyone
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Capitol Ag
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In reply to cc_ag92 • 3:17p, 9/13/20
AG
cc_ag92 said:
Have you given blood or gotten your antibodies tested? If not, why not?

I'm not laughing at you. I would love to hear some proven stories of Covid being widely spread in Texas and elsewhere in the U.S.

Unfortunately, every single person I know who experienced the same type of illness you did and thought they certainly must have had it has come back negative for the antibodies.
Honestly, b/c I convinced myself over time it wasn't Covid. Than I learned that after 3 months the antibodies wouldn't be present even if it was. I'd have no issue doing just that though. But at this point, would the antibodies even be present?
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cc_ag92
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In reply to Capitol Ag • 7:01p, 9/13/20
AG
I wish I knew that answer.

I think Reveille said he's tested recovered patients past that three month mark and they've all had antibodies. I would not bet my house on that, though. Maybe he'll see this and chime in.
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ramblin_ag02
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7:14p, 9/13/20
AG
Antibodies last for years at least. The question has been how long people keep a high level of antibodies. You don't need a lot to do the test. You'd still test positive this far out. You'd need a high titer to donate plasma, though
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AgE Doc
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5:00a, 9/14/20
AG
Given the suggested link in size of viral innoculum at time of infection to the severity of illness, AND given that the medical staff at the time would not have used N95s or other now commonly used PPE, if early spread of COVID was the case in Los Angeles wouldn't we have expected to see similar fates for many of the health care staff members in Los Angeles that they saw in China, New York and Italy in the early parts of this pandemic.

Also with such a high prevalence of loss of smell and taste even in mild COVID-19 disease, it doesn't seem like it would be hard to find or detect from an Electronic Health Record a spike in this more specific symptom. Cough and acute respiratory failure seem a little non-specific in the middle of the Winter.
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AgE Doc
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In reply to amercer • 5:38a, 9/14/20
AG
amercer said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/09/10/los-angeles-patients-covid-coughing/

Interesting, although there is reason to be skeptical. I wonder how this would line up with the strain tracking that has been done.
Good point.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 7:28a, 9/14/20
AG
ramblin_ag02 said:
That's interesting, and you may be right. But it's not definitive. He was sick with something in January and tested positive for antibodies in early April. The January illness could have been something else, and he could have had a mild COVID infection in early March. There was confirmed community spread by then.

I'm not saying for sure that it wasn't spreading in January, it just doesn't match up with the stats. How much to trust the stats is an entirely different issue
That is the thing that I know of everyone that got it, no way to tell for sure when they did since they all donated blood or got blood drawn months after they got sick or were around people who were.
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G. hirsutum Ag
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10:17a, 9/14/20
AG
We are confident my wife caught it from my sister in law when we went to the metroplex back right after new years. Sister in law is in the air force and travels a bit, she was coughing so hard she broke a rib. A week after our visit my wife started coughing really bad, tested negative for flu and strep and they said she had some type of upper respiratory. Gave her some steroids and antibotics and told her she was fine to go back to work. Within a week or so her co teacher got the same nasty cough and a few of her students got the same cough, two kids ended up having short stays in the hospital I think. But no one connected any of the dots until April or so. We just thought it was a cough or a flu or something and those kids just got really sick for a few days. Everyone is fine and healthy. We were around my mother who is ultra ultra high risk and she never got it, neither did I, but my mom and I are both O negative so maybe that helped.
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SoulSlaveAG2005
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In reply to Capitol Ag • 11:33a, 9/14/20
AG
Capitol Ag said:
cc_ag92 said:
Have you given blood or gotten your antibodies tested? If not, why not?

I'm not laughing at you. I would love to hear some proven stories of Covid being widely spread in Texas and elsewhere in the U.S.

Unfortunately, every single person I know who experienced the same type of illness you did and thought they certainly must have had it has come back negative for the antibodies.
Honestly, b/c I convinced myself over time it wasn't Covid. Than I learned that after 3 months the antibodies wouldn't be present even if it was. I'd have no issue doing just that though. But at this point, would the antibodies even be present?


I'm 3 months recovered and still testing positive.

We are testing all units for CV19 antibodies and will being tiger testing end of this month. Going forward, we will be labeling convalescent plasma as either High/Low titer based on the new FDA EUA.

We have had a very low drop off rate on +/- reactivity. Donors from April/may for the most part are still testing positive.

Go give blood. Worst case scenario you hep save 3 lives.
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Gordo14
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2:46p, 9/14/20
This is old, but still suggests COVID wasn't prevelant enough to catch until February. Back tested lab samples collected from January through February and the first positive they could find was Feb 21.

The data collected could be many things, but it's purely anecdotal. For example, the flu could have had a mini-regional outbreak. A jump in people getting respiratory illnesses is evidence of viral spread, but there is nothing in this article that shows it was a specific virus.

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94chem
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 7:46p, 9/14/20
ramblin_ag02 said:
Best I've read so far pins the Chinese outbreak starting Oct/Nov of 2019. So some spread to CA and other areas by December isn't that far-fetched. That being said, the data doesn't really support it. Seeing the impact in places like Italy, Spain, and New York makes me skeptical that it could be running rampant in the US for 3 full months before the commonly accepted timetable without anyone noticing.

I've had the same experience in regards to the "I know it had it in January" crowd. No one testing positive for antibioties with that story in rural North Texas


Kind of like food poisoning. People get a routine virus and for some reason need to tell everyone they were poisoned.
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Keegan99
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 7:47a, 9/18/20
AG


Looks like a substantial number of patients became seronegative within two months.
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ramblin_ag02
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In reply to Keegan99 • 8:22a, 9/18/20
AG
They defined seropositivity in that study as 1:100 titer. That means they can dilute the sample 100 times and still find antibodies with their test. We don't normally dilute blood at all when checking to see if someone has antibodies, and the dilution is only done if you want titers. So this study doesn't apply to your average person checking for prior exposure antibodies.

Some people think that higher titers mean more immunity, and they were testing healthcare workers to see if their titers drop and may them more susceptible to infection. I'm skeptical that titers matter for reinfection. Durable immunity for most things lasts decades regardless of titers. Your body can always ramp up antibody production even if current levels are low.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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