What Specimen Date Positivity Rate are other docs on the board seeing in their area?

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8:23a, 9/21/20
AG
I know the State website Specimen Date Positivity Rate is at 6.77% as of Saturday (9/19/20).
I know those number can change as specimens collected on recent dates are reported out.

Our clinic/hospital system numbers for last week are up to date with results through Friday (9/18/20) with 389 tests collected last week and just 6 of those test results still pending.

Of 383 tests resulted from last week we had 52 positives for a 13.6% Positivity Rate.

This covers about a five county area in central Texas. These numbers only represents ones that came through our clinic/hospital system.

Are others outside of central Texas seeing a similar increase in positivity rate as well? I'm just wondering if this is unique to our area or if this is happening elsewhere and maybe the state website numbers are just behind.
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DuncanAg
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8:46a, 9/21/20
AG
Serious question Doc...why is positivity rate so closely followed? In this case it's people tested in your clinic/hospital system so I would assume symptomatic patients?

I feel like positivity rates can be statistically skewed depending on who and how many receive the test. We could get 500 more non-symptomatic patients to take the test and drive the number down (which seems like the City of Houston leadership wants - people to just show up and get tested at the public sites).

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AgE Doc
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In reply to DuncanAg • 9:37a, 9/21/20
AG
DuncanAg said:
Serious question Doc...why is positivity rate so closely followed? In this case it's people tested in your clinic/hospital system so I would assume symptomatic patients?

I feel like positivity rates can be statistically skewed depending on who and how many receive the test. We could get 500 more non-symptomatic patients to take the test and drive the number down (which seems like the City of Houston leadership wants - people to just show up and get tested at the public sites).

It's just one indicator of potential increase/decrease in community spread, assuming you haven't made a change in who you are testing (asymptomatic, symptomatic, combination, etc...).

As you allude to, if you change your sample population you will change your results.

In our system we haven't changed our testing sample population. It is still primarily symptomatic patients, asymptomatic patients coming into the hospital for elective procedures, and people who have been close or direct contacts with COVID-19 and are requesting testing 5-10 days post-exposure.
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Aston94
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9:53a, 9/21/20
AG
I would assume you were seeing an increase last week based upon Labor Day holiday and kids going back to school. State as a whole increased in positive tests last week.

We should see a bit of a spike over the next few weeks and then lower back down, just my guess.
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dellgriffith
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In reply to DuncanAg • 10:51a, 9/21/20
AG
DuncanAg said:
Serious question Doc...why is positivity rate so closely followed? In this case it's people tested in your clinic/hospital system so I would assume symptomatic patients?

I feel like positivity rates can be statistically skewed depending on who and how many receive the test. We could get 500 more non-symptomatic patients to take the test and drive the number down (which seems like the City of Houston leadership wants - people to just show up and get tested at the public sites).



It's the only arrow left in the quiver to scare people. Deaths are plummeting and we are reaching herd immunity in most areas.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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murphyag
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In reply to dellgriffith • 12:28p, 9/21/20
AG
What type of doctor are you? I've been curious about the fact that some doctors seem more concerned about Covid than others.
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nortex97
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In reply to dellgriffith • 12:53p, 9/21/20
AG
dellgriffith said:
DuncanAg said:
Serious question Doc...why is positivity rate so closely followed? In this case it's people tested in your clinic/hospital system so I would assume symptomatic patients?

I feel like positivity rates can be statistically skewed depending on who and how many receive the test. We could get 500 more non-symptomatic patients to take the test and drive the number down (which seems like the City of Houston leadership wants - people to just show up and get tested at the public sites).



It's the only arrow left in the quiver to scare people. Deaths are plummeting and we are reaching herd immunity in most areas.
Real science doesn't try to scare people with mask laws/lockdowns based on political calculations, nor does it worry about anecdotes like positive tests at one hospital.

Here is something closer to real science;

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dellgriffith
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In reply to murphyag • 3:06p, 9/21/20
AG
murphyag said:
What type of doctor are you? I've been curious about the fact that some doctors seem more concerned about Covid than others.


Trauma surgeon. I've operated on numerous patients with COVID. The "more concerned docs" are concerned Trump is going to win.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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nortex97
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In reply to dellgriffith • 3:10p, 9/21/20
AG
dellgriffith said:
murphyag said:
What type of doctor are you? I've been curious about the fact that some doctors seem more concerned about Covid than others.


Trauma surgeon. I've operated on numerous patients with COVID. The "more concerned docs" are concerned Trump is going to win.
ok fine, whatever....politics.
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coolerguy12
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In reply to dellgriffith • 4:39p, 9/21/20
AG
Thanks for your contribution to this board.
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AgE Doc
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In reply to dellgriffith • 7:44p, 9/21/20
AG
dellgriffith said:
murphyag said:
What type of doctor are you? I've been curious about the fact that some doctors seem more concerned about Covid than others.


Trauma surgeon. I've operated on numerous patients with COVID. The "more concerned docs" are concerned Trump is going to win.


I'm "more concerned" because I've lost a number of patients to COVID who I have cared for almost 2 decades. In rural Texas these people are almost like family. That's why I'm more concerned. It's not political for me. That doesn't mean mistakes haven't been made, but politics isn't why I'm concerned about our community's increased positivity rate.

As an aside, I like your user name...

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Forum Troll
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10:11p, 9/21/20
AG
My wife has seen significantly less positives the last couple of weeks in sugar land Missouri city area. None so far this week.
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96ags
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:18a, 9/22/20
AG
nortex97 said:
dellgriffith said:
DuncanAg said:
Serious question Doc...why is positivity rate so closely followed? In this case it's people tested in your clinic/hospital system so I would assume symptomatic patients?

I feel like positivity rates can be statistically skewed depending on who and how many receive the test. We could get 500 more non-symptomatic patients to take the test and drive the number down (which seems like the City of Houston leadership wants - people to just show up and get tested at the public sites).



It's the only arrow left in the quiver to scare people. Deaths are plummeting and we are reaching herd immunity in most areas.
Real science doesn't try to scare people with mask laws/lockdowns based on political calculations, nor does it worry about anecdotes like positive tests at one hospital.

Here is something closer to real science;

Good grief. That graph at 5:25 is just sad.
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