Yes. Agreed. Of course over millions you'll have some case. I'm not saying it isn't possible. Just that it isn't even close to some kind of major news. Too little evidence.

amercer said:

---

When the numbers get big, rare things happen.

It's possible to get chicken pox twice if the first case was very mild. And the second time is usually worse. It's rare though, and I don't think we should build policy around it.

---

I have no clue the odds but funny enough my co-worker is just now getting over it after having a mild case as a child. Got it from her bother who got it from his wife, all same story. No real point here, just found it timely.

This is probably a good place to remind everyone to get their shingles vaccine

amercer said:

---

When the numbers get big, rare things happen.

It's possible to get chicken pox twice if the first case was very mild. And the second time is usually worse. It's rare though, and I don't think we should build policy around it.

---

I got chicken pox twice. First time was mild when I was 6 and then we had an outbreak in my high school the second half of my senior year. Much worse the second time.

BTW nobody wants you at senior graduation pool parties when you got the pox.

The difference is that the media doesn't blow each up

We are having a strong outbreak in my county now. More than 3% of the county has tested positive and nearly half of those are active cases. In spite of that, it is bothersome to see how few people are taking any precautions at all.

I'm told that on Monday night or very early Tuesday morning, the local ambulance apparently transported one unresponsive 16 year old girl to the hospital. All of her family tested positive but her, but she apparently didn't feel the need to quarantine at all and continued going to school.

It wouldn't surprise me if we hit 10% to 20% in this county before this is over.

what county is this?

Aggie95 said:

---

what county is this?

---

Hansford.

If you look at the very top of the Texas Panhandle, there are five counties going across. From east to west, it is Lipscomb, Ochiltree, Hansford, Sherman, and Dallam.

Hubert J. Farnsworth said:

---

Aggie95 said:

---

what county is this?

---

Madeup county

---

Farnsworth? Are you in Ochiltree County? I've driven through Farnsworth many times.

eric76 said:

---

We are having a strong outbreak in my county now. More than 3% of the county has tested positive and nearly half of those are active cases. In spite of that, it is bothersome to see how few people are taking any precautions at all.

I'm told that on Monday night or very early Tuesday morning, the local ambulance apparently transported one unresponsive 16 year old girl to the hospital. All of her family tested positive but her, but she apparently didn't feel the need to quarantine at all and continued going to school.

It wouldn't surprise me if we hit 10% to 20% in this county before this is over.

---

Here are the statistics.

From https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/tx/hansford-county-population our estimated population for the county is 5,423.

According to https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 we have had 183 diagnosed cases. I know others who self isolated when other members of their family came down with it and were never tested.

That works out to at least 3.37% of the county having tested positive.

We currently have approximately 80 active cases including several people who I know. So that is 1.48% of the county currently infected.

Two of the currently active cases of people who I know well are hospitalized. One of them is someone who has diabetes and had a kidney transplant less than two years ago.

Edit to add: My niece tested positive this morning. She works here at the office so everyone here has probably been exposed. I've already had it so there is some chance that I'm not in any danger.

eric76 said:

---

eric76 said:

---

We are having a strong outbreak in my county now. More than 3% of the county has tested positive and nearly half of those are active cases. In spite of that, it is bothersome to see how few people are taking any precautions at all.

I'm told that on Monday night or very early Tuesday morning, the local ambulance apparently transported one unresponsive 16 year old girl to the hospital. All of her family tested positive but her, but she apparently didn't feel the need to quarantine at all and continued going to school.

It wouldn't surprise me if we hit 10% to 20% in this county before this is over.

---

Here are the statistics.

From https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/tx/hansford-county-population our estimated population for the county is 5,423.

According to https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 we have had 183 diagnosed cases. I know others who self isolated when other members of their family came down with it and were never tested.

That works out to at least 3.37% of the county having tested positive.

We currently have approximately 80 active cases including several people who I know. So that is 1.48% of the county currently infected.

Two of the currently active cases of people who I know well are hospitalized. One of them is someone who has diabetes and had a kidney transplant less than two years ago.

Edit to add: My niece tested positive this morning. She works here at the office so everyone here has probably been exposed. I've already had it so there is some chance that I'm not in any danger.

---

In all seriousness, how is the 16 year old? Any update on her condition?

Capitol Ag said:

---

In all seriousness, how is the 16 year old? Any update on her condition?

---

I haven't heard anything else yet.

eric76 said:

---

eric76 said:

---

We are having a strong outbreak in my county now. More than 3% of the county has tested positive and nearly half of those are active cases. In spite of that, it is bothersome to see how few people are taking any precautions at all.

I'm told that on Monday night or very early Tuesday morning, the local ambulance apparently transported one unresponsive 16 year old girl to the hospital. All of her family tested positive but her, but she apparently didn't feel the need to quarantine at all and continued going to school.

It wouldn't surprise me if we hit 10% to 20% in this county before this is over.

---

Here are the statistics.

From https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/tx/hansford-county-population our estimated population for the county is 5,423.

According to https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 we have had 183 diagnosed cases. I know others who self isolated when other members of their family came down with it and were never tested.

That works out to at least 3.37% of the county having tested positive.

We currently have approximately 80 active cases including several people who I know. So that is 1.48% of the county currently infected.

Two of the currently active cases of people who I know well are hospitalized. One of them is someone who has diabetes and had a kidney transplant less than two years ago.

Edit to add: My niece tested positive this morning. She works here at the office so everyone here has probably been exposed. I've already had it so there is some chance that I'm not in any danger.

---

I'm sure many more have actually had the virus but had mild or no symptoms.

And, with 1.5% of the population probably having an active case, you could still go to an event with 27 people and have a ~67% likelihood of nobody there having the virus.

eric76 said:

---

Capitol Ag said:

---

In all seriousness, how is the 16 year old? Any update on her condition?

---

I haven't heard anything else yet.

---

Keep us updated. Praying for her.

Op is a troll

eric76 said:

---

waitwhat? said:

---

eric76 said:

---

eric76 said:

---

We are having a strong outbreak in my county now. More than 3% of the county has tested positive and nearly half of those are active cases. In spite of that, it is bothersome to see how few people are taking any precautions at all.

I'm told that on Monday night or very early Tuesday morning, the local ambulance apparently transported one unresponsive 16 year old girl to the hospital. All of her family tested positive but her, but she apparently didn't feel the need to quarantine at all and continued going to school.

It wouldn't surprise me if we hit 10% to 20% in this county before this is over.

---

Here are the statistics.

From https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/tx/hansford-county-population our estimated population for the county is 5,423.

According to https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 we have had 183 diagnosed cases. I know others who self isolated when other members of their family came down with it and were never tested.

That works out to at least 3.37% of the county having tested positive.

We currently have approximately 80 active cases including several people who I know. So that is 1.48% of the county currently infected.

Two of the currently active cases of people who I know well are hospitalized. One of them is someone who has diabetes and had a kidney transplant less than two years ago.

Edit to add: My niece tested positive this morning. She works here at the office so everyone here has probably been exposed. I've already had it so there is some chance that I'm not in any danger.

---

I'm sure many more have actually had the virus but had mild or no symptoms.

And, with 1.5% of the population probably having an active case, you could still go to an event with 27 people and have a ~67% likelihood of nobody there having the virus.

---

There is an obvious error in one of your implicit assumptions -- that the distribution of cases is random among the population. Also, most people who do have an active case and know it will self select themselves to avoid going to events unless the event is that of a visit to the doctor's office.

---

I'm aware of the error, but correcting it only makes my point even more. And you're also right that people who are actually sick will generally avoid the public, which raises the likelihood of an event being COVID-free even more than the first error.