1) not trying to be political.
2) I know # of cases is not the end all be all...just an easy comparison.

I think it's interesting to try and determine driving factor in COVID. In order of new cases today by state:
Illinois
Texas
California
Wisconsin
Michigan
Minnesota
Ohio
Indiana
Pennsylvania

While we haven't had an artic blast in the country yet, the midwest did get a bit of snow recently. I think it's not coincidence that a number of the upper midwest states are impacted. Not sure what drives seasonality of COVID, but it pretty clearly seems to have one (late fall - spring)

Also note that a lot of these states are among the most stringent in COVID regulations, so it can't be as simple as "wear your mask", etc. In addition to the seasonal impact, I think Halloween and voting lines (early and election day) must have had a significant impact on these recent spikes.

I'm just hoping we see a peak soon in some of these places, regions

I agree. A metric that compares more apples to apples is the best way to look at it.

Yes, first off, non-normalized data is worthless for comparison between states. Per capita cases is better. Using that, the top 10 is:

1) N. Dakota
2) S. Dakota
3) Iowa
4) Wisc
5) Neb
6) Utah
7) Miss
8) Idaho
9) Tenn
10) Alabama

Texas is 22

California is 40

<<< Edit to add - this is just total case metrics. cc's data above matches the OP's criteria better. We need to see that Top 10 list. >>>

(Per capita deaths would be even better, except I think those stats are skewed against the places that got slammed early, before docs knew how to treat it well. I think per capita ICU hospitalizations would be the best metric for comparison, but that info isn't readily available and I'm lazy)

Second, it's too soon to determine what kind of seasonality this thing will have. NASA eggheads and their nerdy friends came up with this chart:

Which basically shows how seasonality affects different viruses, and according to them, the ones with dashed lines are a similar genus to Covid - so according to this, it might be more seasonal than the flu, or season might not matter at all. Or somewhere in between. It's too soon to say. Their conclusion:

Quote:

---

Even with access to powerful datasets and models, scientists say it will take time to disentangle the role of seasonal change from the other factors influencing SARS-CoV-2, such as travel and economic restrictions or wearing masks.

"Seasonal variability may prove to be only a minor factor, slowing but not stopping the virus in summer, until more immunity builds up in the population," said Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch. "New viruses have a temporary but important advantagefew or no individuals in the population are immune to them."

A Princeton University team underscored this point in a study published in May 2020. They used 2014-2020 absolute humidity data from ERA-5 and MERRA-2 to develop scenarios for how SARS-CoV-2 might spread if seasonal effects prove to be similar to those for influenza and common cold betacoronaviruses. Their conclusion was that during the pandemic stage of an emerging virus, seasonality could only drive "modest" changes to a pandemic's size.

Rachel Baker, the lead Princeton researcher on that study, explained that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic could eventually settle into a pattern of seasonal outbreaks. "But it will probably take some time to actually see that in the data," she said. "Ideally, you would have enough data to be able to look at viral activity in the same city over multiple seasonsprobably at least three yearsbefore we would be able to say with confidence that there is a seasonal signal and be able to describe it."

---

https://scitechdaily.com/could-covid-19-have-seasons-nasa-searches-for-signals-in-earth-data/

Many thanks.

cone said:

---

I'm just hoping we see a peak soon in some of these places, regions

---

I seem to recall some time back a lot of talk about the Hope-Simpson charts on viral seasonality based on latitude. If anybody still wants to blow the dust off that tome they'd find January to be the average peak month.

but 1) this thing is novel and 2) there are only so many people walking around and 3) people read the news and get scared

so while it might get hyper infectious (even more) in the winter, there are only so many hosts. it can't break into your house.

It's hard to draw conclusions without knowing more about who is getting sick and who they have been in contact with. That there have been near simultaneous rapid increases in cases both in Europe and across a large part of North America makes me guess at some combination of seasonality related to weather conditions effecting the communicability of the virus itself and seasonality related to human behavior. The latter would seem to point to university reopenings and seasonal agricultural work which both move large groups of people from one area to another and have some aspect of communal living. Combine those with general weariness of social distancing and those are plausible ingredients for the current situation.

US is going into "snot season", more sneezes, sniffles, coughs, etc due to allergies and weather situations. Kids are going back to school as well. Most dumbass narrow minded school districts across the US have resorted to coming back to school in traditional settings plus the typical Covid mitigation efforts, all in enclosed buildings with AC and Heat. A few in spots are trying to use tents and such. No outside school in Texas that I am aware of, despite the most favorable time of year climate wise. My opinion that tents and keeping kids outside would have made a big difference.

Put people in enclosed and recirculated air environments, non filtered, and this virus is gonna spread, mask or no mask.

Watching LatAm countries that are going back to school, they are not having these spikes in schools that are being seen in the US. Why? Most schools do not have AC. People in the US need to open the windows if they got em', and if not maybe do stuff under a big tent. Circulate and free flow the air.

As stated in the link I provided above - it's too soon to make a call on seasonality.

The massive difference in charts between Chile and Argentina, neighboring countries which share the same latitudes, provide good reason to not jump to conclusions about seasonality.

If I had to place a bet, I'd bet on it being seasonal, but it's way too early to say that definitively.

For what it's worth, Illinois reported 27 deaths today:

The deaths were in the following counties:

• Carroll County: 1 female 90s
• Champaign County: 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s
• Cook County: 1 female 60s, 2 females 70s, 1 male 70s
• Greene County: 1 female 90s
• Jersey County: 1 female 90s
• Jo Daviess County: 1 male 70s
• Kane County: 2 males 90s
• Knox County: 1 male 70s
• LaSalle County: 1 female 90s
• Macon County: 1 female 100+
• Madison County: 1 female 70s, 1 female 80s, 1 male 80s
• McLean County: 1 female 90s
• Ogle County: 1 female 80s
• Pulaski County: 1 male 70s
• Saline County: 1 female 70s
• Sangamon County: 1 female 60s
• St. Clair County: 1 female 60s
• Will County: 1 female 90s
• Williamson County: 1 male 70s
• Winnebago County: 1 male 40s