Edit: I'm going to leave this OP here because I think it's true in some cases, but it's clear that in some of the harder hit areas the virus is in fact making a comeback, although *seemingly* at a slower rate.

I'm not a statistician or epidemiologist, but making an observation here.

It appears that regions which experienced a large wave in March/April (Lombardy, NO, NY, etc.) have not experienced another large wave despite only a small percentage of population testing positive. It also appears that many cities which experienced large waves in July/August (McAllen, Houston, etc.) are also not seeing large re-spikes at the moment in confirmed cases and hospitalizations. This is despite conditions being theoretically more suitable for spread and more testing being available.

Curious as to what the explanation might be. I assume mitigation efforts and public awareness are higher in these areas, but that doesn't explain everything. Is it perhaps a pattern of this disease that it symptomatically affects X number of people in communities and then self-limits due to so many vulnerable already being exposed? Is there a chance this thing just runs it's course through a community?

What's missing from any of the coverage is that it impacts...the same population ILI kills annually; the elderly primarily. Where there was a lot of 'kindling' from a previous year's mild flu season (among this population group), or where the government forced it upon this group (ahem, NY) it's wiped out a lot early.

According to the BBC, Lombardy is a hot spot again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54937699

Quote:

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A quarter of the new cases are in Lombardy, which includes Milan. It was the worst-hit area in Italy's first outbreak and it was Europe's first coronavirus hotspot.

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Coming up on a year there, so re-infection would not be shocking.

Italy has heavy smokers. Ali g with France and Spain

Herd immunity. It makes sense there would already be alot of immunity in the area, so the second time the rate of infection would be much lower

What is your definition of a hard hit city? Here in DFW, we had quite a few cases back in July. We are hitting those same highs for positive cases again now. We were never on the level of NY or Italy, though.

Has the death rate changed in the previously hard hit areas that are spiking again?

Seems very prevalent across the country with the only change that in addition to cities, rural areas are also more impacted. I believe people living closer together likely work harder to do the things we know help.

AustinAg2K said:

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What is your definition of a hard hit city? Here in DFW, we had quite a few cases back in July. We are hitting those same highs for positive cases again now. We were never on the level of NY or Italy, though.

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I was looking at the hospitalization charts a few days ago and noted there didn't appear to be huge spikes in hospitalizations in many of those areas despite there being spikes elsewhere. I could be totally wrong.

Looking at DFW, the hospitalizations are trending up but not to the level we saw in July/August. The one concerning thing about the data in Dallas hospitalizations is that ICU availability does seem to be an issue.

The TMC Houston data is also showing a small increase in hospitalizations, but again not at the same rate of increase we saw in June/July. Hopefully it stays that way.