based on the following assumptions:

- roughly 10 Million recovered with some immunity (don't need vaccine)
- roughly 120 Million under the age of 30 (last in line...no need)
- roughly 55 Million age 65+ (priority vaccine group)
- just guessing, maybe 8 million first responders and medical professionals (priority vaccine group)

If the vaccine is anywhere close to announced efficacy (say 70% instead of 94%)...I think we could see significant impact after just 2 months of vaccines (Dec and Jan) assuming we get the 20 million per month based on reports.

Will still be a huge undertaking to ID who is high risk, and getting them targeted.

The question should be how much of the high risk group do you have to get to in order to see an impact while the low risk groups are still YOLO.

this wave will likely crest between now and Christmas

then you'll get vaccine roll outs

maybe another February-ish small wave, and then a long gradual drawdown as more people get vaccinated, less public alarm, more social activity, all in concert.

people will be in movie theaters by July 4th

Aggie95 said:

---

based on the following assumptions:

- roughly 10 Million recovered with some immunity (don't need vaccine)
- roughly 120 Million under the age of 30 (last in line...no need)
- roughly 55 Million age 65+ (priority vaccine group)
- just guessing, maybe 8 million first responders and medical professionals (priority vaccine group)

If the vaccine is anywhere close to announced efficacy (say 70% instead of 94%)...I think we could see significant impact after just 2 months of vaccines (Dec and Jan) assuming we get the 20 million per month based on reports.

---

Is there any transmission between the 55 million over age 65? If not, the million under age 30 will still be transmitting among themselves and to the over 65 crowd but the elderly just wont get sick.

High risk is going to become a problematic phrase because by all previous definitions, the under 30 crowd were the high risk group for transmission which is why we have shut down bars and instituted country-wide virtual schooling. If we're giving the vaccine to the elderly first and for the foreseeable future, the current mitigation processes (masks, social distancing, WFH, shut downs) wont change because transmissions may not be slowed.

Fauci is now saying that vaccine will be effective in preventing an individual from contracting covid but won't prevent transmission.

I tend to agree...possibly sooner

88planoAg said:

---

Fauci is now saying that vaccine will be effective in preventing an individual from contracting covid but won't prevent transmission.

---

How is this possible? Shouldn't a robust immune response to the vaccine limit potential viral replication?

I can see that...but at that point it REALLY becomes the Case # vs serious infections/death debate.

If there is still transmission due to the 30 and under crowd...the case numbers will still remain elevated but hospitalization and deaths should plummet with 55 and older immunity.

kinda like strep...some people just carry it and give it to others while never actually developing strep throat.

you do contract it

that's what he's saying

these vaccines aren't providing sterilizing immunity

but this is just to say know you can be a vector for spread

I dunno. As with much of this, I find this very frustrating.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-vaccine-public-health-measures-fauci


"We have the same issue with influenza," Fauci said, noting that the two coronavirus vaccines are far more effective than the seasonal flu vaccine. "You can get vaccinated with influenza and you won't get sick, but it won't necessarily prevent you from getting infected although you won't know you're infected because you'll either get mild or no symptoms."
CDC UPDATES CORONAVIRUS THANKSGIVING GUIDANCE, URGES AGAINST TRAVEL
The same concept applies to the eventual COVID-19 vaccine, he said.
"The issue is that you're not going to be completely protected against a degree of infection that you might not even notice that you might be able to spread to others," he said. "Which is the reason why the message you may have heard me say over the last couple weeks in the media is that getting vaccinated with a highly efficacious vaccine does not mean that you're going to abandon completely public health measures."

AustinAg2K said:

---

Well according to the guy who owns the place I get sushi from, we won't see a significant impact until 60% of the population is vaccinated. Now, you might wonder why I get medical advice from a sushi chef, but he tells me he was a doctor before he came to the US*. The rate at which any expert has been able to predict anything with the virus makes it just as likely my sushi chef/doctor is the real expert.

* I'm not joking about this part.

---

I use to date a girl that was a Dr in China. They have to get thru a very difficult test and from there its back to doing internship again in the US to become a Dr in thr US.

She is now a cancer doctor, very smart. One of her sisters is a physicist and the other runs the building of some bullet train in China

But theoretically that only impacts those that choose to not be vaccinated. Their choice for sure but no room for complaining about getting sick with COVID.

CowtownEng said:

---

88planoAg said:

---

Fauci is now saying that vaccine will be effective in preventing an individual from contracting covid but won't prevent transmission.

---

How is this possible? Shouldn't a robust immune response to the vaccine limit potential viral replication?

---

I watched Fauci just last night and he said they did not know the answer to this

Right now we know it limits severity of illness and death

88planoAg said:

---

Fauci is now saying that vaccine will be effective in preventing an individual from contracting covid but won't prevent transmission.

---

That's sounds not possible.

Quote:

---

" it won't necessarily prevent you from getting infected"

---

Nobody knows, they can only guess right now.

The issue of a vaccination potentially being protective against the disease but not necessarily preventing infection or becoming contagious was brought up early on. For instance, concerns were raised about this issue after tests of the Astrazeneca vaccine in monkeys.

Whether this applies to the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines may be cleared up in their human trials.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-trials-concerns-transmission-astrazeneca-latest-a9521241.html


The researchers found a single dose of the vaccine prevented all six vaccinated monkeys from developing pneumonia, but did not prevent infection outright.

Some scientists not involved in the study welcomed the results as promising, but others also raised concerns that, if the results were replicated in humans, those vaccinated would probably still be able to transmit Covid-19.

Prof Jonathan Ball of the University of Nottingham said the results were "encouraging", but added it was "concerning" that the same amount of virus genome was detected in the noses of both the vaccinated and unvaccinated monkeys.

"If this represents infectious virus and a similar thing occurs in humans, then vaccinated people can still be infected, shed large amounts of virus which could potentially spread to others in the community," the molecular virologist added.

DadHammer said:

---

88planoAg said:

---

Fauci is now saying that vaccine will be effective in preventing an individual from contracting covid but won't prevent transmission.

---

That's sounds not possible.

---

I can see it in a disease that spreads presemptomatic including those that remain asymptomatic

jamey said:

---

DadHammer said:

---

88planoAg said:

---

Fauci is now saying that vaccine will be effective in preventing an individual from contracting covid but won't prevent transmission.

---

That's sounds not possible.

---

I can see it in a disease that spreads presemptomatic including those that remain asymptomatic

---

After vaccination?

88planoAg said:

---

jamey said:

---

DadHammer said:

---

88planoAg said:

---

Fauci is now saying that vaccine will be effective in preventing an individual from contracting covid but won't prevent transmission.

---

That's sounds not possible.

---

I can see it in a disease that spreads presemptomatic including those that remain asymptomatic

---

After vaccination?

---

Yeah....depends on how fast and effective the vaccine fights it
back which could be impacted by things like viral load upon exposure which we know impacts severity of illnesses not to mention it won't work for 5% of people. There's some room between those outcomes I can see having an impact and again we also know this spreads early upon infection hence presemptomatic spread

My guess to the OP: 10% if the right people get it.

I don't expect us to reach herd immunity levels of vaccination until next fall, but I don't expect anyone to care. Once deaths and hospitalizations plummet everyone will go back to normal.