We all know that covid impacts the obese, hypertensive, diabetic, etc. significantly more than a healthy individual. Do we have any way of estimating how much our obesity and health epidemic is contributing to covid deaths? Is there anyway to put a number on how it would affect overall mortality from the virus? I would think it's hard to isolate down to that variable by looking at other countries. Thoughts??
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What Would Covid Look Like if America Was Healthy?
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Last: 5 yr ago by Goodbull_19
The US is tenth in deaths per 1 million population per Worldometers. All the countries ahead of them or even slightly behind the US aren't nearly as fat or obese as Americans are yet still have 650 to 800 deaths per 1MM population.
We'd be better off in deaths per capita if at the beginning the extremely vulnerable were better protected than they were particularly in NY. Instead COVID wiped out something like 11% or so of the nursing home population in NY and NJ in a month.
We'd be better off in deaths per capita if at the beginning the extremely vulnerable were better protected than they were particularly in NY. Instead COVID wiped out something like 11% or so of the nursing home population in NY and NJ in a month.
If you look at a list of the countries with the highest per capita death rates it's a mix of old and unhealthy. Hard to untangle the two. The places that have been unscathed (most of Africa) are very young populations. They also tend to have less obesity.
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. No doubt we'd be better off.
And beyond individual preventive health, our society as a whole also doesn't care about providing heathcare access to everyone. I said it early in the Sweden thread - it's a lot easier for them to make the decisions they made when they know people can and will get treatment when ill.
But there's tons of other factors too. Honestly it's going to take years to disentangle how/why this spread and what factors worked or didn't. I think even if we were healthy, we'd still probably look worse off than most because we're a world-wide hub for travel and commerce. This article presents a strong hypothesis that travel makes a big impact.
And beyond individual preventive health, our society as a whole also doesn't care about providing heathcare access to everyone. I said it early in the Sweden thread - it's a lot easier for them to make the decisions they made when they know people can and will get treatment when ill.
But there's tons of other factors too. Honestly it's going to take years to disentangle how/why this spread and what factors worked or didn't. I think even if we were healthy, we'd still probably look worse off than most because we're a world-wide hub for travel and commerce. This article presents a strong hypothesis that travel makes a big impact.
I'm not so sure aging populations are as big of a factor as we'd like to think (not saying it's not a factor at all, just that it might not be as pronounced as we'd like to think).amercer said:
If you look at a list of the countries with the highest per capita death rates it's a mix of old and unhealthy. Hard to untangle the two. The places that have been unscathed (most of Africa) are very young populations. They also tend to have less obesity.
Take a look at the List of countries with People Over 65 (by percent of total).
https://www.prb.org/countries-with-the-oldest-populations/
There's drastically different results, with many countries in the Top 20 having quite good death-per-million from Covid.
Also - the US sits at #36, so I'm not sure it's a huge factor for us.
(Obviously this is subject to change cause Covid ain't done yet, and I think it's safe to say it has surprised us all at some point.)
My doctor has stated that obesity is a much greater factor leading to complications than age. Whether the numbers back that up, I don't know. When a 30+ yeR old dies from Covid, that person is only reported by age, not condition.
To no doubt that if every population was in better physical condition, quality of life and survivability from diseases and other catastrophes would be exponentially higher. Very few athletes tend to die in situations like these, whether it's one's ability exit a burning building or survive a virus.
To no doubt that if every population was in better physical condition, quality of life and survivability from diseases and other catastrophes would be exponentially higher. Very few athletes tend to die in situations like these, whether it's one's ability exit a burning building or survive a virus.
The top 20 on that list has a lot of European countries that have been hit hard, and obesity is much less of a thing there.
Japan is a huge outlier for sure, but in general all the Asian countries have done really well.
Japan is a huge outlier for sure, but in general all the Asian countries have done really well.
Japan has a lot of other factors in their favor, that's for sure. But I'd invite you to take another look. Finland, Greece, Germany, and many other European countries have all done quite well in terms of deaths per million.amercer said:
The top 20 on that list has a lot of European countries that have been hit hard, and obesity is much less of a thing there.
Japan is a huge outlier for sure, but in general all the Asian countries have done really well.
Italy, Spain, and France get all the attention and certainly make it look like age is a huge factor (and again, I'm not saying it's not a factor) - but they're the only 3 countries who are Top 20 in both % of population 65+ and Covid deaths per million.
deadbq03 said:Japan has a lot of other factors in their favor, that's for sure. But I'd invite you to take another look. Finland, Greece, Germany, and many other European countries have all done quite well in terms of deaths per million.amercer said:
The top 20 on that list has a lot of European countries that have been hit hard, and obesity is much less of a thing there.
Japan is a huge outlier for sure, but in general all the Asian countries have done really well.
Italy, Spain, and France get all the attention and certainly make it look like age is a huge factor (and again, I'm not saying it's not a factor) - but they're the only 3 countries who are Top 20 in both % of population 65+ and Covid deaths per million.
What about countries that have not just lower death rates per million, but lower IFRs? Lower deaths per million could just be due to less cases.
Capitol Ag said:
My doctor has stated that obesity is a much greater factor leading to complications than age. Whether the numbers back that up, I don't know. When a 30+ yeR old dies from Covid, that person is only reported by age, not condition.
To no doubt that if every population was in better physical condition, quality of life and survivability from diseases and other catastrophes would be exponentially higher. Very few athletes tend to die in situations like these, whether it's one's ability exit a burning building or survive a virus.
In the RGV his statement seems to be very true. We have had a bunch of under 40 year olds die, several in their 20s and I am sure 99% of them were obese.
That's a fantastic point, and I think you're probably right. Sadly, I think we can add that to the list of things that will take years to shake out in the data.Goodbull_19 said:deadbq03 said:Japan has a lot of other factors in their favor, that's for sure. But I'd invite you to take another look. Finland, Greece, Germany, and many other European countries have all done quite well in terms of deaths per million.amercer said:
The top 20 on that list has a lot of European countries that have been hit hard, and obesity is much less of a thing there.
Japan is a huge outlier for sure, but in general all the Asian countries have done really well.
Italy, Spain, and France get all the attention and certainly make it look like age is a huge factor (and again, I'm not saying it's not a factor) - but they're the only 3 countries who are Top 20 in both % of population 65+ and Covid deaths per million.
What about countries that have not just lower death rates per million, but lower IFRs? Lower deaths per million could just be due to less cases.
So to clarify my take: on an IFR basis - I think age is clearly a major factor. I'm addressing the narrative that tries to dismiss US/UK/Italy/Spain/etc death rates as being a factor of aging populations. First, the US isn't extremely old, and second, there's plenty of old countries that have managed this well.
Did their leaders put infected people in nursing homes?deadbq03 said:I'm not so sure aging populations are as big of a factor as we'd like to think (not saying it's not a factor at all, just that it might not be as pronounced as we'd like to think).amercer said:
If you look at a list of the countries with the highest per capita death rates it's a mix of old and unhealthy. Hard to untangle the two. The places that have been unscathed (most of Africa) are very young populations. They also tend to have less obesity.
Take a look at the List of countries with People Over 65 (by percent of total).
https://www.prb.org/countries-with-the-oldest-populations/
There's drastically different results, with many countries in the Top 20 having quite good death-per-million from Covid.
Also - the US sits at #36, so I'm not sure it's a huge factor for us.
(Obviously this is subject to change cause Covid ain't done yet, and I think it's safe to say it has surprised us all at some point.)
Actually an interesting point there would be that the profile of who is most effected has been different in different places in the US.
In NYC it was old people. In the RGV it was not as old people with bad cardiovascular health.
In NYC it was old people. In the RGV it was not as old people with bad cardiovascular health.
My practice consists mostly of the very old with multiple comorbidities. Every one that has been admitted has been obese, usually morbidly. Just an interesting observation.
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Since March. Seeing the sickest pts. The one risk factor that is far above the rest. Obesity. Obesity. Obesity.
Marcus Aurelius said:
Since March. Seeing the sickest pts. The one risk factor that is far above the rest. Obesity. Obesity. Obesity.
Is it because its an endothelial cell virus and every excess pound of fat requires so much in capillaries?
No clue. Trust in science to elucidate the mechanism.
Marcus Aurelius said:
Since March. Seeing the sickest pts. The one risk factor that is far above the rest. Obesity. Obesity. Obesity.
Including over age?
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