Just when we thought 2020 couldn't get worse. Let's hope the vaccines have arrived in the nick of time to short-circuit this thing. Last couple of paragraphs perhaps the most important: CHANGING

P.U.T.U said:

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I have not seen anything that has shown the new strains (UK or South African) where it has mutated to be more deadly like what happened with the Spanish flu. Several areas where it is being spread are under strict lockdowns, in the end they may not be helping as much as some would believe.

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The article says that, at present, it does not seem to be more deadly, just more transmittable.

The article also says the UK lockdown is in response to the mutation, not its causation. The timeline matters.

The biggest concern should be that it might be the spike protein that has changed. This new variant may or may not be able to be addressed by the current vaccine iteration if true. This may be nothing major in the grand scheme of things, but it could also mean that we are back to square one in terms of immunity globally if this virus spreads. Hopefully, the spike protien is close enough that the vaccine and/or immunity from previous infection are still relevant. It's much more likely that's the case - especially because there is no evolutionary pressure from the vaccine yet - so no need to panic, but it still could be very bad news. But this is part of the problem with allowing uncontrolled infection - you increase the odds of a bad mutation significantly.

Gordo14 said:

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The biggest concern should be that it might be the spike protein that has changed. This new variant may or may not be able to be addressed by the current vaccine iteration if true. This may be nothing major in the grand scheme of things, but it could also mean that we are back to square one in terms of immunity globally if this virus spreads. Hopefully, the spike protien is close enough that the vaccine and/or immunity from previous infection are still relevant. It's much more likely that's the case - especially because there is no evolutionary pressure from the vaccine yet - so no need to panic, but it still could be very bad news. But this is part of the problem with allowing uncontrolled infection - you increase the odds of a bad mutation significantly.

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Can you please explain the bolded part?

74OA said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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I have not seen anything that has shown the new strains (UK or South African) where it has mutated to be more deadly like what happened with the Spanish flu. Several areas where it is being spread are under strict lockdowns, in the end they may not be helping as much as some would believe.

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The article says that, at present, it does not seem to be more deadly, just more transmittable.

The article also says the UK lockdown is in response to the mutation, not its causation. The timeline matters.

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It mentions the other nations where it has spread and some of those have been under strict lockdown for a while and are still seeing a surge. We hope the death rate does not increase and time will tell.

London's tier 4 reaction will fine people that are doing non-essential travel. This just days before stating they were going to open up travel with other countries. I have read a few articles that have stated there has been no increase in death rate and jumping 2 safety "levels" to prohibit travel is a huge jump.

Sometimes virus mutations may increase transmissibility but reduce Virulence. They are doing research now to make sure it's not vaccine resistant although they don't believe it is.

Would assume he means that if a virus is allowed to run rampant, you have more available hosts and infections in which a virus has the opportunity to mutate.

Gotcha, understood.

P.U.T.U said:

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74OA said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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I have not seen anything that has shown the new strains (UK or South African) where it has mutated to be more deadly like what happened with the Spanish flu. Several areas where it is being spread are under strict lockdowns, in the end they may not be helping as much as some would believe.

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The article says that, at present, it does not seem to be more deadly, just more transmittable.

The article also says the UK lockdown is in response to the mutation, not its causation. The timeline matters.

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It mentions the other nations where it has spread and some of those have been under strict lockdown for a while and are still seeing a surge. We hope the death rate does not increase and time will tell.

London's tier 4 reaction will fine people that are doing non-essential travel. This just days before stating they were going to open up travel with other countries. I have read a few articles that have stated there has been no increase in death rate and jumping 2 safety "levels" to prohibit travel is a huge jump.

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They don't know what they don't know, so they're being particularly careful to suppress the spread of this new mutation until they do know more.

Seems prudent to me until they at least definitively understand if the mutation is more dangerous or not.

it's likely that this vaccine being rolled out this year isn't a one and done

they'll have a tweaked formula probably next winter

No real surprise here, but the UK variant appears to have reached community spread internationally.

Quote:

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A case of the more contagious coronavirus variant first discovered in Britain was found in Colorado on Tuesday, Gov. Jared Polis said. It is the first confirmed case of the variant in the United States.

The variant was detected in a man in his 20s with no travel history, Mr. Polis said. The man was in isolation in Elbert County, southeast of Denver, he said.

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Cases of the variant have been found in several countries, including Japan, Spain, France and Canada. Officials in India said on Tuesday that they had found six cases of the virus variant first detected in Britain.

Countries around the world have implemented stricter protocols for travelers entering from the United Kingdom. A new rule in the United States mandating that incoming travelers from the U.K. including American citizens show proof of a negative coronavirus test upon entry went into effect on Monday.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/29/world/covid-variant-british-us.html

Wild that even with low international travel, it still made it around so quickly.

Fascinating.

Is there any indication that this new UK strain effects children more than the original strain? Someone brought this up today so I figured I would come ask the experts.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948152/Technical_Briefing_VOC202012-2_Briefing_2_FINAL.pdf

No significant difference in death. Seems to have a slightly higher attack success rate, which means it's more likely to cause infection post-exposure. There may be some other variables at play there though such as the weather which they've tried to correct for.

With contact tracing, they've been able to establish that only about 10% people who come in to close contact with an infected person will be infected. With this new strain, that number appears to be closer to 15%.

So not much difference But I am not a research scientist. From the one graph showing g the age range it looks pretty similar to old stand. Am I looking at that right?

cone said:

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it's likely that this vaccine being rolled out this year isn't a one and done

they'll have a tweaked formula probably next winter

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And your conclusion is based on the complete lack of evidence of a mutation that reduces the effectiveness of the vaccine?

But hey, we will likely need to tweak a vaccine that is >90% effective and start all over again.