updated estimate of total US population infected

4,692 Views | 26 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by JP_Losman
JP_Losman
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3:30p, 1/8/21
AG
Today the print is ~21,700,000 cumulative positive cases in the United States since "the beginning".

What is a reasonable multiple to use to estimate total infections by including those that go undetected?

The German study I have seen suggests a multiple of 10x, but instead let's use a more conservative 5x.

21,700,000 x 5 = 108,500,000 citizens

This number seems reasonable given that many have had the mild symptoms or zero symptoms, plus those that had a family member get a positive test and used close-ology to diagnose themselves.

If we assume that children and teens are, for all practical purposes, immune given their low infection and low symptom rate, then children and teens provide another 50-100 million of the total populace that contribute to herd immunity.

If we factor in the vaccination estimate/goal for end of March, at 100 million doses, we are fast approaching some semblance of herd immunity.

100 million (infected) + 75 million (youths) + 100 million (vaccinated) = 275 million

Divide by US population: 275/328=.83 or 83 percent w some sort of immunity.

Thoughts and comments



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hoosierAG
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3:40p, 1/8/21
AG
Here is a link to thread that has the cdc breakdown by end of November


https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3171695
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HotardAg07
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3:43p, 1/8/21
AG
You assume that people who get vaccinated aren't counted in the infection population. That's currently not the case, there is no stopping people who have previously been infected from getting the vaccine.



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The Big12Ag
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 3:49p, 1/8/21
Yes, it's true that nursing home residents who have already had positive Covid test and recovered are still getting the vaccine. Probably true for some in health care as well. I can't argue strongly against that, maybe its needed to provided added resistance or resistance against variants, but my gut says I wish vaccinations only went to people who never tested positive and recovered.
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JP_Losman
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4:05p, 1/8/21
AG
Light at the end of the tunnel, in the macro sense
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fightingfarmer09
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2:02a, 1/9/21
All of these estimates are flawed because they assume that there is 0% natural immunity prior to the Covid19 outbreak. With a diverse genetic populations it is likely a significant % of individuals are immune to Covid19 without vaccination and without infection.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to fightingfarmer09 • 6:54a, 1/9/21
AG
This is true. For some unknown reason, there are individuals who have existing T cells. Could be the reason so many are asymptomatic or have light symptoms. I can't tell you how many times I was exposed to the virus without proper PPE. If I got it, I never knew it.
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fightingfarmer09
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In reply to Not a Bot • 9:33a, 1/9/21
Cactus Jack said:
This is true. For some unknown reason, there are individuals who have existing T cells. Could be the reason so many are asymptomatic or have light symptoms. I can't tell you how many times I was exposed to the virus without proper PPE. If I got it, I never knew it.


At this point with our general knowledge of evolution and immune systems the fact this is not discussed on a larger scale is beyond frustrating. We understand the significant role of sickle cell in malaria immunity, the long term impact of the Black Plague survival on improved immune systems, and how the immune system has amazing memory with each new threat. The fact it has not been uttered once during this ordeal is telling that we either have incompetent specialists or, more likely, it does not play into the fear-mongering as well.
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HotardAg07
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In reply to fightingfarmer09 • 9:49a, 1/9/21
AG
It's been discussed ad nauseum amongst the epi community. It just doesn't conclude with what you think it does. Prof Shane Crotty literally wrote the paper on cross reactive immune systems to covid and what he's saying is not that people are immune, rather that they would have a milder course than someone without. And even if some percentage of the population is completely immune naturally, that would mean the virus is even more virulent than we thought and a higher % would be needed for herd immunity. For example, if 30% of the country is naturally immune, then that means the virus has been spreading this fast with only 70% of the population being susceptible. That means the R0 is not 2.5, where 60-70% is needed for herd immunity, rather the R0 would be much higher and the % of the susceptible population would be much higher to get herd immunity. That being said, I don't think anybody has found evidence that large percentages of people are completely naturally immune to the virus.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to fightingfarmer09 • 9:56a, 1/9/21
Couple of things.
1) this is a new virus and they are working with the best most complete data they have, which isn't very good nor complete.

2) The t-cell response has been brought up and acknowledged by the medical community but are typically communicated to the general population as an implied part of the "this virus is so random I'm how it effects people" message. Look at how poorly they messaged "asymptomatic" vs "presymptomatic". Now try imagining how impossible messaging t-cell response. It would get relayed as "**** it, I had a cold last year. I am immune."

I know if I am black, I know if I am fat, I know if I am old, I have no clue if I have been exposed to a similar enough virus and had a severe enough reaction that I will have the appropriate t-cell response.

3) the effect of this t-cell response is effectively baked into the infection death rates.
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ReloadAg
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6:28p, 1/10/21
AG
Doesn't matter how much progress we make agains the virus. The media and political class will never stop hyping it for their purposes.
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Teb1
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7:25p, 1/10/21
Kids are not immune to it they just don't show severe symptoms. Can still cause damage to their body. Isn't this correct?
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Rocky Rider
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In reply to ReloadAg • 8:10p, 1/10/21
AG
ReloadAg said:
Doesn't matter how much progress we make agains the virus. The media and political class will never stop hyping it for their purposes.


This is correct and prevents us from having a meaningful conversation about covid-19. Maybe we'll be able to have a more honest dialogue in a couple weeks.
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amercer
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8:34p, 1/10/21
AG
It's hard to believe 1/3 of the country has already had COVID, although that's what the numbers indicate. I do wonder if the multiplier of positive tests to actual infections isn't as high as it was last summer. We are testing a LOT more now.

IF 100 million have some immunity and with all the restrictions still in place, cases/hospitalizations/deaths should fall off a cliff pretty soon.

I stopped making predictions about 7 months ago, but it does seem like if we could get the vaccine roll out ramped up that this would be done in a couple of months.
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bigtruckguy3500
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 9:09p, 1/10/21
Nice explanation.



Also, remember in April or so last year when UCLA or USC released a study that estimated that half of LA county already had COVID? (https://www.dailynews.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-may-have-had-40-times-more-coronavirus-cases-that-officially-counted-researchers-contend/).

I would venture a guess that that hypothesis didn't pan out, if you look at current LA county infection trends (13k/day, nearly 850k total)..


Like someone else said, this is something we've never seen before. I'm sure it took decades to realize that sickle cell disease conferred immunity in malaria. I would venture a guess that it'll take us a long time to identify what may make some people more susceptible to covid than others. Furthermore, what kind of gamble do we want to make that X percentage of the country is already immune? Or has partial immunity? How should it affect our policies?
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JP_Losman
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11:21a, 1/15/21
AG
ttt

Up to 23,400,000 cumulative positive cases in United States. 23 million is more than the entire population of the state of Florida.

Each week we are adding 1.5 million confirmed positive, which probably translates to 3-4 million
total including those who aren't ever tested.

The wildfire is burning through trees as fast as it can.


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amercer
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In reply to JP_Losman • 1:18p, 1/15/21
AG
At 3 million a week infected it might still be 40 more weeks to herd immunity.

I certainly hope that 100 million with acquired immunity + some percentage with cross reactive immunity from something else + vaccines = something much faster than that.

But every single optimistic prediction has been wrong so far.
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HotardAg07
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In reply to amercer • 1:22p, 1/15/21
AG
The rate of vaccination is going up pretty consistently. You can see here what those lines look like. https://covid19-projections.com/

On January 14th 600,000 people got their first dose and another 145,000 people got their second dose. On January 7th it was 326,000 and 48,000 respectively.

Pretty reasonable to assume the daily capacity of vaccinations will continue to go up, within the limits of vaccine supply.
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amercer
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 1:26p, 1/15/21
AG
I hope so, but we need about 3 million vaccinations a day to reach herd levels by summer. That seems impossible.
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HotardAg07
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In reply to amercer • 1:31p, 1/15/21
AG
amercer said:
I hope so, but we need about 3 million vaccinations a day to reach herd levels by summer. That seems impossible.
Why is it impossible, if we've doubled the daily vaccinations in the last week, up to 600,000 per day?

Consider testing which has similar bottlenecks in supply, delivery, etc.

March 1st we did 48 tests in a day
May 1st we did 247,000 tests in a day
July 1st we did 747,000 tests in a day
Now we are doing over 2,000,000 tests in a day

Just seems a little early to panic.
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amercer
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 1:35p, 1/15/21
AG
HotardAg07 said:
amercer said:
I hope so, but we need about 3 million vaccinations a day to reach herd levels by summer. That seems impossible.
Why is it impossible, if we've doubled the daily vaccinations in the last week, up to 600,000 per day?

Consider testing which has similar bottlenecks in supply, delivery, etc.

March 1st we did 48 tests in a day
May 1st we did 247,000 tests in a day
July 1st we did 747,000 tests in a day
Now we are doing over 2,000,000 tests in a day

Just seems a little early to panic.


10 months in I think we're all constantly on the verge of panic.
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GAC06
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2:04p, 1/15/21
AG
Why would we need to reach herd immunity at 80% to be done with this? Once everyone in group 1B who wants the shot has it, deaths and hospitalizations should plummet.
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amercer
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In reply to GAC06 • 2:43p, 1/15/21
AG
I don't disagree, but "at risk groups" add up to about 100 million people in the US.
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notex
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In reply to amercer • 6:16a, 1/16/21
AG
amercer said:
I hope so, but we need about 3 million vaccinations a day to reach herd levels by summer. That seems impossible.
Maybe we have been 'looking in all the wrong places' and this level is not, really, true.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-19-have-we-been-looking-wrong-place-marc-girardot/

Quote:
There are now ample signs, proofs and demonstrations of this pre-existing immunity throughout the world:
  • The most prominent evidence is the wide pervasiveness of asymptomatics in the population witnessed throughout the globe, notably in very dense urban areas such as New York (see previous article).
  • This summer, a study by Tbingen University Hospital proved that 81% of pre-Covid blood samples had T-cells capable of killing C19 infected cells in Germany.
  • Another in Singapore found 50%. Depending on the geographic zone, these levels may vary significantly up and down.
  • A recent study published in Science demonstrates that a range of preexisting memory T-cells were targeting SARS-CoV-2 as well as other common cold coronaviruses.
  • Another one recently even showed cross-reactive antibodies.
This is not anecdotal evidence, this is scientific proof applicable and generalizable, and it's been proven repeatedly.
And, as a general law, this is not specific to coronaviruses: after the H1N1 epidemic, the La Jolla Institute for Allergy and Immunology already demonstrated large pre-existing cell immunity against H1N1 from past influenza infections.
You are probably thinking ... So what? (if you've come this far, thanks :-) )
Well the epidemiologic consequences of this validation are far reaching. It means:
[ol]
  • The actual spread of the pandemic was widely underestimated and its lethality widely overestimated. That everybody had a sense of...
  • Many simply don't need vaccination, because they were/are already immune in a big way.
  • Immunity protects, but doesn't necessarily seem to stop transmission of the disease, which possibly puts a dent in the ambition of collective immunity through vaccination: remember the level of pre-existing immunity in NYC was bound to be very high (asymptomatics were approx.80-85% according to some data points).
    • [/ol]
    I've been perplexed by the lack of lethality in greater SE Asia, and this points to some answer there. Possibly, Covid vaccinations of vulnerable groups needs to be done but we don't need to hit some 80 percent vaccinated etc. level to get to 'herd immunity.'
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    amercer
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    In reply to notex • 9:06a, 1/16/21
    AG
    The problem with those optimistic predictions is that people have been making them since last June. And the pessimists have been right so far. There were people on here daily posting threads from Twitter epidemiologists saying that this would burn itself out soon or that we'd be at herd immunity by August.

    I don't see those threads very much now.
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    JP_Losman
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    In reply to amercer • 10:41a, 1/16/21
    AG
    We can look back to past epidemics.

    Hong Kong Flu in 1969 and Spanish in 1917-18.

    Most epidemics last 1-2 years, so given that this one started in Nov 2019
    it is reasonable to suggest 1.5 years given the vaccine development not available in 1917 and 1969.
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    amercer
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    In reply to JP_Losman • 12:38p, 1/16/21
    AG
    I'm not saying it won't be over at some point this year. I'm saying that the early hopeful analysis about most of the population already having asymptomatic cases or already carrying some cross reactive immunity have been proven wrong. So while we are getting there I would caution people from thinking we are closer than we are.

    I certainly hope that the current wave wanes soon, and that with the vaccine rollout we never see another spike.
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    JP_Losman
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    4:51p, 2/9/21
    AG
    ttt

    Today's print is 27.1 million cases confirmed.

    27.1 X 5 = 135 million

    135,000,000 / 328,000,000 = .42 or 42%

    Bloomberg vaccinated count: 44.4 million

    Macro numbers looking solid
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