COVID cases are down over 33% in the last 2 weeks

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DCAggie13y
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8:59p, 1/24/21
AG
To what do we attribute this huge drop? The vaccine? Change in testing procedures? Seasonal fluctuations?

It seems like other countries were experiencing a spike in cases causing shutdowns while we are seeing a drop and places like Michigan, Chicago, California, DC are opening up.

Any theories?
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AggieJ2002
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 9:10p, 1/24/21
AG
Holiday gatherings have been done for 3 full weeks?
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Gilligan
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9:18p, 1/24/21
AG
Post inauguration a positive case is only reported if a person tests positive twice and shows symptoms.

Look it up...
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GAC06
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9:36p, 1/24/21
AG
The virus surges and dissipates. Hopefully vaccinations and herd immunity will prevent another surge
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to GAC06 • 9:44p, 1/24/21
AG
GAC06 said:
The virus surges and dissipates. Hopefully vaccinations and herd immunity will prevent another surge


I was thinking that but previous dissipations were slow and gradual. This latest drop is acute falling off a cliff drop. We haven't seen a drop like this since this thing started, even with a more contagious variant circulating.


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GAC06
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 9:53p, 1/24/21
AG
It was also a much larger peak
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bigtruckguy3500
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In reply to GAC06 • 10:00p, 1/24/21
GAC06 said:
The virus surges and dissipates. Hopefully vaccinations and herd immunity will prevent another surge
Yeah, I think herd immunity is definitely helping in some places. LA county has a population of 10 million. There have been 1 million confirmed cases in that county with an estimated 1/3 of county residents exposed/infected. You gotta figure that, at minimum, 10% of the population in that county being immune via infection has got to help, if not 33%. Combine that with a decrease in travel, parties, family get togethers, etc., it makes sense.

I still think it's too early for the vaccine to have a measurable impact. I think we'll see the impact from the vaccine in another 3-4 weeks. But also we don't have any major travel/get together holidays for another few months.

So, fingers crossed, this is our peak, and last major surge.
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to GAC06 • 10:13p, 1/24/21
AG
GAC06 said:
It was also a much larger peak


True but it took over 2 months to get there.

It took a national lockdown for the UK to achieve a similar decline. Ours came while most states were opening back up.
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GAC06
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 10:21p, 1/24/21
AG
What makes you think the lockdown was responsible for the reduction in the UK? The virus ebbs and flows. Restrictive states and open states show little difference in cases. California hadn't had a spike, so their spike was more severe. Now it will recede like it always does.
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to GAC06 • 10:23p, 1/24/21
AG
GAC06 said:
What makes you think the lockdown was responsible for the reduction in the UK? The virus ebbs and flows. Restrictive states and open states show little difference in cases. California hadn't had a spike, so their spike was more severe. Now it will recede like it always does.


Good point. I think a research paper just came out showing there was no evidence that lockdowns had any impact on the virus.
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DCAggie13y
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10:24p, 1/24/21
AG
Here it is:

https://www.newsweek.com/covid-lockdowns-have-no-clear-benefit-vs-other-voluntary-measures-international-study-shows-1561656
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GAC06
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 10:25p, 1/24/21
AG
It's easy to credit lockdowns for the end of a surge, but lockdowns generally only get implemented when there's a significant surge. The likely most significant factor in ending the surge is the surge itself, both in immunity and voluntary behavioral changes. Why is Florida doing better than L.A.? Because Florida already had a spike. Nothing to do with "lockdowns"
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to GAC06 • 10:28p, 1/24/21
AG
True. Even the places that don't impose lockdowns recover after a surge. That happened here in Virginia. When things were spiking in July we didn't impose additional restrictions and it eventually waned. We also haven't done anything additional with this surge and its also starting to wane.

Same thing happens with cold and flu every year so its common sense.
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cone
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 10:31p, 1/24/21
AG
latest data I saw was that the UK peaked before Tier 4

but who knows

this thing is clearly seasonal and easily defeats our suggested NPIs in season
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WestTexasAg
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10:35p, 1/24/21
AG
I have no idea why, but the daily new cases in Lubbock has been way down the past week.
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nhamp07
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In reply to Gilligan • 2:26a, 1/25/21
AG
Gilligan said:
Post inauguration a positive case is only reported if a person tests positive twice and shows symptoms.

Look it up...


Proof?
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buffalo chip
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In reply to nhamp07 • 7:12a, 1/25/21
S
nhamp07 said:
Gilligan said:
Post inauguration a positive case is only reported if a person tests positive twice and shows symptoms.

Look it up...


Proof?
https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3177784

See OP. Both the WHO and the CDC have changed "case" from one positive test...

To two positive tests PLUS symptoms...

This is the standard that it should always have been (if the concern was Public Health, not Politics). Why change now? I wonder...
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The Big12Ag
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8:05a, 1/25/21
I didn't see where they made a change from 1 to 2 positive tests in order to report a case, if I missed it could someone point out that text?

If that change is correct and if it leads to a big drop in reported cases, then we should keep an eye on hospitalizations and deaths as a better measure of Covid prevalence. Is those two measurements dont drop 1 to 3 weeks after this trend of new case drops, then I think the testing change claim re: new cases reported is legit.

I personally think natural immunities, vaccination immunities, additional lockdowns (look, they help - it's just common sense to me that if no one goes to work, no one goes to school, and everyone avoids intermixing then it helps) and fear, and being past the holiday season is all contributing to help it drop off. CDC estimates around 80-90 million have had Covid by now - if true, that's around 25% of the country so pool of people still susceptible has dropped off.

I just hope hospitalizations and deaths drop, that's key to lifting any restrictions and mask requirements (if we use common sense anyway).
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cone
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In reply to The Big12Ag • 8:07a, 1/25/21
AG
it's pretty clear there's a seasonal component don't you think

not the same virus it was in the summer humidity and heat
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PJYoung
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8:10a, 1/25/21
AG
Hospitalizations are the stat to look at and they're dipping as well.

And these vaccines are having their effect

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-sees-60-drop-in-hospitalizations-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/

Quote:
The decrease in hospital admissions is swift after vaccination, Maccabi suggests in its latest data, finding that hospitalizations start to fall sharply from Day 18 after people receive the first shot. Galia Rahav, head of infectious diseases at Israel's largest hospital, Sheba Medical Center, described the data as "very important."

By Day 23, which is 2 days after the second shot, there is a 60% drop in hospitalizations among vaccinated people aged 60-plus, Maccabi revealed after monitoring 50,777 patients. It compared their hospitalization rate at that point with their hospitalization rate soon after receiving the vaccine, using 7-day moving averages.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to The Big12Ag • 8:11a, 1/25/21
AG
Can't speak for a lot of areas, but our hospitalizations are down to about 60% of our peak and falling. Some hospitals in the Dallas area have demobilized their crisis response nurses. We will be losing a lot of our crisis response nurses soon.

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The Big12Ag
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In reply to Not a Bot • 8:13a, 1/25/21
Cactus Jack said:
Can't speak for a lot of areas, but our hospitalizations are down to about 60% of our peak and falling. Some hospitals in the Dallas area have demobilized their crisis response nurses. We will be losing a lot of our crisis response nurses soon.

Yes, I've observed that as well and think this is a better measure than cases. However, since we are questioning why cases are dropping and claiming only a change in testing is leading to the drop, then hospitalizations dropping should also confirm true case prevalence really is dropping.
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CDub06
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8:19a, 1/25/21
AG
Positive tests and hospitalizations tend to lag up to 14 days behind exposure. Christmas and New Year would have been the two biggest exposure events for most people, so I think that would be the simplest explanation.

More importantly than positive tests, we're starting to see hospitalizations go down locally, which is a better indicator. With these numbers going down and the number of vaccinated going up, I think it's easy to believe the worst is behind us.
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agforlife97
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8:43a, 1/25/21
AG
If the new standard is two positive tests plus symptoms, then I'm not sure that any of the previous data can be really trusted, even hospitalization and death data. We know that flu has basically disappeared. So it stands to reason that many deaths we've chalked up to covid are probably flu cases that were false positive covid cases. How many people died of something else but were chalked up to covid because of false positives? We'll probably never know. What we do know is that many people who "died of covid" would have died anyway from something else, since around half of all covid deaths were among people who have lived past their life expectancy already.
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The Big12Ag
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In reply to buffalo chip • 8:59a, 1/25/21
buffalo chip said:
nhamp07 said:
Gilligan said:
Post inauguration a positive case is only reported if a person tests positive twice and shows symptoms.

Look it up...


Proof?
https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3177784

See OP. Both the WHO and the CDC have changed "case" from one positive test...

To two positive tests PLUS symptoms...

This is the standard that it should always have been (if the concern was Public Health, not Politics). Why change now? I wonder...
I linked the who documents in the thread you reference above. When I read them, they only seem to be reiterating the guidance from September 2020 - not changing the criteria, just reinforcing the criteria. You can still question whether or not the decision to re-enforce occurred around the same time as the inauguration, but I don't see that they changed from a requirement of 1 to a requirement of 2 positive tests for every test scenario.
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to agforlife97 • 9:00a, 1/25/21
AG
agforlife97 said:
If the new standard is two positive tests plus symptoms, then I'm not sure that any of the previous data can be really trusted, even hospitalization and death data. We know that flu has basically disappeared. So it stands to reason that many deaths we've chalked up to covid are probably flu cases that were false positive covid cases. How many people died of something else but were chalked up to covid because of false positives? We'll probably never know. What we do know is that many people who "died of covid" would have died anyway from something else, since around half of all covid deaths were among people who have lived past their life expectancy already.


We intentionally used a more aggressive testing protocol with high levels of amplification that caught infections that were no longer active. This was done as a better safe than sorry approach when we didn't know much about the virus. I expect that as we learn more we will lower the testing thresholds to catch active infections and not viral remnants that could be from an old infection.

I also noticed that hospitalizations are slowly dropping but nothing like the sudden drop in cases. Im guessing some states have started implementing the new testing guidance. You could probably look at the states with the steepest declines and figure out who switched.
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HotardAg07
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9:19a, 1/25/21
AG
There has always been a lag between cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
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bay fan
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In reply to Gilligan • 9:20a, 1/25/21
S
Gilligan said:
Post inauguration a positive case is only reported if a person tests positive twice and shows symptoms.

Look it up...
I don't want to make this a F16 thread but I did look it up and there is literally zero information to support that claim. If it's true, please provide proof.
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hoosierAG
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 9:22a, 1/25/21
AG
HotardAg07 said:
There has always been a lag between cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.


Exactly, just like the opposite way when case increase obviously.

And confused on the 2 positive test thing. First I have had heard and know absolutely know no one or any place getting 2 tests at all. Maybe negatives, but not positive. I know I sure didn't.
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PJYoung
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In reply to agforlife97 • 9:41a, 1/25/21
AG
agforlife97 said:
We know that flu has basically disappeared. So it stands to reason that many deaths we've chalked up to covid are probably flu cases that were false positive covid cases.

No. Talk to any doctor. They have been testing for flu like any season and it's almost completely gone.

Our Covid mitigation efforts have knocked the flu out completely which should tell you how contagious Covid is but I know a certain segment of our population will choose to believe otherwise.
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cone
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In reply to PJYoung • 10:00a, 1/25/21
AG
not sure I believe it's as much simply NPI as it is also viral interference

similar trajectory declines (although not as crushing) in other respiratory illnesses happened during H1N1 and mitigation was nothing compared to what we're doing now

there's a lot we don't know
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agforlife97
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In reply to PJYoung • 10:04a, 1/25/21
AG
PJYoung said:
agforlife97 said:
We know that flu has basically disappeared. So it stands to reason that many deaths we've chalked up to covid are probably flu cases that were false positive covid cases.

No. Talk to any doctor. They have been testing for flu like any season and it's almost completely gone.

Our Covid mitigation efforts have knocked the flu out completely which should tell you how contagious Covid is but I know a certain segment of our population will choose to believe otherwise.
Well, if that's the case, then a silver lining is that we know how to defeat the flu now. What's weird is that the CDC never recommended masks to control flu, even though this was the norm in Asian countries.
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GAC06
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In reply to PJYoung • 10:08a, 1/25/21
AG
PJYoung said:
agforlife97 said:
We know that flu has basically disappeared. So it stands to reason that many deaths we've chalked up to covid are probably flu cases that were false positive covid cases.

No. Talk to any doctor. They have been testing for flu like any season and it's almost completely gone.

Our Covid mitigation efforts have knocked the flu out completely which should tell you how contagious Covid is but I know a certain segment of our population will choose to believe otherwise.


There have been a wide range of policies attempting to control covid worldwide. How have flu numbers varied country to country?
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PJYoung
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In reply to cone • 10:12a, 1/25/21
AG
cone said:
there's a lot we don't know
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cone
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In reply to GAC06 • 10:12a, 1/25/21
AG
from what I have seen it's been crushed globally

no double epidemics at all
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