Something is a little... off

4,603 Views | 23 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by OldArmyBrent
Born&Raised
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9:27a, 2/4/21
So cases are falling off a cliff but...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/kansas-uk-covid-variant-more-deadly-1566733%3famp=1

Clearly the variant coming from the UK - which some scientists have said will be dominant in the US by March - is more contagious.

Also - supposedly both the UK and SA variant can have the possibility* of skipping antibodies produced by the original Covid virus.

So... how can we over lap - ven diagram style - the reduction in cases and hospitalizations seen around the country - and the variance that spread quicker and can escape antibodies.

I'm not seeing an overlap... But we should see a plateauing within a week and increases starting a week after that if the variant can escape antibodies - because it stands to reason that those who have had Covid are a little bit more "liberal" with their activities and a more susceptible to being reinfected.

Anyone else curious about this kinda of data mismatch?
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GAC06
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9:32a, 2/4/21
AG
My prediction:

Cases will continue falling and your fear about mutations will be a bad memory
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HotardAg07
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In reply to Born&Raised • 9:42a, 2/4/21
AG
Born and Raised,

It took months for the B.1.1.7 variant to go from first being detected to being prevalent in the UK (first detected in September 2020).

Consider the mental math, if the R0 of the variant is say -- 5 instead of 3. If you introduced once case in the US a month ago, you would still need months for that to raise to the level of a significant portion of our population, even if that increase in prevalence is faster than the original strains. Some 7,000,000 people in the US are currently infected with coronavirus.

Also, while the B.1.1.7 variant appears to be more transmissible, there is no hard evidence that it escapes pre-existing immunity, of which some 30% of the US already has. Where it has been tested, there has been no drop off in vaccine efficacy as well.

Many scientists have framed our current situation as a race -- vaccinations against spread of the new strain. If we immunize enough people in the short term, the strains won't have oxygen to multiply to the point where they become a major issue.

Below is a prevalence of B.1.1.7 graph posted by Trevor Bedford:


As you can see, prevalence of the B.1.1.7 strain is increasing in the US, but still a very small percentage.

Same graph for Denmark and UK, where it was introduced earlier:

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Windy City Ag
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In reply to Born&Raised • 9:57a, 2/4/21
AG
The UK variant is already here. The first guy to get it North Texas had not travelled in a long time. The first Denton County person had not "travelled overseas"

They are getting it through community spread and in all probabilities local community spread.

It is what it is.
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aggiemike02
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In reply to Born&Raised • 10:08a, 2/4/21
AG
I would suggest this is not a mismatch at all, but a mismatch of your perception of actual vs forecast data. One is known, one is a guess, you dont seem to care past your perception either way.
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Born&Raised
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:44a, 2/4/21
nortex97 said:
So, OP is saying "just wait 2 weeks."

I seem to recall hearing that around a year ago, too.


Calm down - no I'm not.

I'm actually asking the exact opposite... why are we NOT SEEING increases some are saying is coming or is a Cat. 5 coming.
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nortex97
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In reply to Born&Raised • 10:59a, 2/4/21
AG
Because ILI/flu season is ending/has ended in parts of the country, functionally. It's nationally over toward late February every year.
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GAC06
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In reply to Born&Raised • 11:06a, 2/4/21
AG
The new variants aren't as dangerous as "some" are saying. Vaccinations are only going to continue ramping up for now. All the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against all known variants
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Born&Raised
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In reply to GAC06 • 12:58p, 2/4/21
GAC06 said:
The new variants aren't as dangerous as "some" are saying. Vaccinations are only going to continue ramping up for now. All the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against all known variants


Your saying this based on.... I think we are past the point of Twitter science. All the academic research I have seen has shown the variants are capable of getting around antibodies from previous Covid infections - meaning that we should start to see cases going back up again. But the strange thing is that we're not considering the fact that scientists have said that the UK variant would be dominant by March which is in a couple of weeks.

I am arguing against that mode of thinking - I'm wondering if somebody can point out why I would be wrong.i'm wondering if somebody can point out why I would be wrong.

I am arguing from the Socratic method.
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beerad12man
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1:03p, 2/4/21
AG
I'm this close to ignoring this guy. Biggest doomer out there right now.
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gougler08
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In reply to Born&Raised • 1:14p, 2/4/21
AG
Born&Raised said:
GAC06 said:
The new variants aren't as dangerous as "some" are saying. Vaccinations are only going to continue ramping up for now. All the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against all known variants


Your saying this based on.... I think we are past the point of Twitter science. All the academic research I have seen has shown the variants are capable of getting around antibodies from previous Covid infections - meaning that we should start to see cases going back up again. But the strange thing is that we're not considering the fact that scientists have said that the UK variant would be dominant by March which is in a couple of weeks.

I am arguing against that mode of thinking - I'm wondering if somebody can point out why I would be wrong.i'm wondering if somebody can point out why I would be wrong.

I am arguing from the Socratic method.
You're arguing for the sake of arguing. Even in your OP you mention that there is rumblings of a possibility that this may happen...

Sure it could happen, but the more likely scenario is that we are vaccinating more people every day, coming out of peak respiratory virus season and major holiday gatherings have past. I'd assume we see one small spike a couple weeks after the Super Bowl and then we steadily go down until we can stop this nonsense and treat it like other diseases
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Born&Raised
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In reply to beerad12man • 1:22p, 2/4/21
beerad12man said:
I'm this close to ignoring this guy. Biggest doomer out there right now.


Everyone is a doomer to you that does not want to 'let it rip' and kill as many people as possible... I would say from the looks of it your nuttier than me.

Ignore away - but this is ain't a politics board this is a coronavirus discussion thread... I'm discussing the possibility that has been raised regarding original COVID infection VS new variant

And your "la la la make it all go away" Strategy has proven to not be protection against COVID-19.
Have a good one.
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HotardAg07
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In reply to Born&Raised • 1:38p, 2/4/21
AG
Honestly, I noticed you didn't respond to my long, researched post which points out that while the variants are here, they are very low in prevalence so not yet driving the overall rate of transmission higher yet. So, are you really here to discuss the science, or something else?
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Born&Raised
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 1:53p, 2/4/21
HotardAg07 said:
Honestly, I noticed you didn't respond to my long, researched post which points out that while the variants are here, they are very low in prevalence so not yet driving the overall rate of transmission higher yet. So, are you really here to discuss the science, or something else?


Or maybe I just didn't see it... chill bro.

It seems like I posted on my OP what you posted but I didn't see. It seems that we might be in agreement.

Friends?
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JP_Losman
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 1:59p, 2/4/21
AG
Side note

Did you guys still do Hotard from Hell when you were a resident?
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HotardAg07
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In reply to JP_Losman • 2:02p, 2/4/21
AG
JP_Losman said:
Side note

Did you guys still do Hotard from Hell when you were a resident?
Every year, until the year we closed. The last one was especially epic.
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BowSowy
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In reply to Born&Raised • 3:34p, 2/4/21
AG
Born&Raised said:
HotardAg07 said:
Honestly, I noticed you didn't respond to my long, researched post which points out that while the variants are here, they are very low in prevalence so not yet driving the overall rate of transmission higher yet. So, are you really here to discuss the science, or something else?


Or maybe I just didn't see it... chill bro.

It seems like I posted on my OP what you posted but I didn't see. It seems that we might be in agreement.

Friends?
You didn't see the gigantic post with pictures? Lol, doubtful
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hoosierAG
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3:59p, 2/4/21
AG
He didn't respond as it didn't fit his agenda. Anyways, dont feed the troll.
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RafterAg223
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4:09p, 2/4/21
AG
The original poster likes to fear monger and then scold posters when they call him/her out on it with facts and science to substantiate their responses.
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samurai_science
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In reply to Born&Raised • 8:46p, 2/4/21
Born&Raised said:
nortex97 said:
So, OP is saying "just wait 2 weeks."

I seem to recall hearing that around a year ago, too.


Calm down - no I'm not.

I'm actually asking the exact opposite... why are we NOT SEEING increases some are saying is coming or is a Cat. 5 coming.
Cat 5 of a virus less deadly than the flu, who cares?
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JR Ewingford
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9:03p, 2/4/21
My give a **** level about other strains is ZERO
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DFWTLR
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In reply to JR Ewingford • 9:13p, 2/4/21
AG
EwingBarnes said:
My give a **** level about other strains is ZERO


Agreed, and this is about the 5th thread this OP has started about different strains ready to kill everyone.
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GAC06
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9:44p, 2/4/21
AG
Flag the troll
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The Big12Ag
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In reply to samurai_science • 10:31p, 2/4/21
samurai_texan said:
Born&Raised said:
nortex97 said:
So, OP is saying "just wait 2 weeks."

I seem to recall hearing that around a year ago, too.


Calm down - no I'm not.

I'm actually asking the exact opposite... why are we NOT SEEING increases some are saying is coming or is a Cat. 5 coming.
Cat 5 of a virus less deadly than the flu, who cares?


The OP is a little ..... off, but I haven't heard someone say "less deadly than the flu" since like last April. What do you base that statement on?
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OldArmyBrent
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In reply to Born&Raised • 11:28p, 3/30/21
AG
How'd this work out OP?
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