Israel (Covid Vaccine)

6,790 Views | 36 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by buffalo chip
marloag
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It looks like, from everything I read, Israel has given/administered more vaccinations per capita than any other nation but yet they're going thru a surge of cases. Has anybody been following this?
Drip99
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marloag said:

It looks like, from everything I read, Israel has given/administered more vaccinations per capita than any other nation but yet they're going thru a surge of cases. Has anybody been following this?
I just read it on yahoo. Seems the blame the UK mutation

Like many other countries, Israel launched its vaccination campaign with the two most vulnerable sectors: frontline medical workers and citizens over the age of 65. In January, as jubilant grandparents and ambulance drivers got vaccinated, and slowly stopped falling ill, younger and less cautious Israelis flouted caution turning themselves into spreaders just as the highly infectious British mutation of the virus wafted into the country.
Old Buffalo
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JesusQuintana said:


In January, as jubilant grandparents and ambulance drivers got vaccinated, and slowly stopped falling ill, younger and less cautious Israelis flouted caution turning themselves into spreaders just as the highly infectious British mutation of the virus wafted into the country.
OR!

Virus gonna Virus, ya'll.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
ORAggieFan
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Obviously it's because of Christmas gatherings!
The Big12Ag
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What age groups is it spreading in? They've only fully immunized age 65 and up and only very recently.

They've started age 40 and up but not fully immunized.

I'm not sure how many under age 40 have had a shot, but am curious if new cases are in under 40 crowd. Yes, Israel has given more shots per capita but still only 20% fully immunized and they nearly all fall into the older crowd.

You mentioned surge, but the country's 7 day moving average peaked Jan 25th, two weeks ago. It has dropped since then and of course it take a while for vaccines to protect.

And of course cases are only one measurement, hospitalizations and deaths another - and I would argue those are more important.

So if you are concerned with the vaccine being effective, including for the hot buzz word of the moment "VARIANTS", then take a look at all age, date, and impact data and draw your own conclusion.

If Israeli deaths due to Covid don't precipitously drop soon ( a week or two?), then I would have concerns - the vaccine has been given to those at risk in country and the vaccine (Pfizer) is billed as nearly eliminating serious disease.


HotardAg07
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Old Buffalo
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“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
The Big12Ag
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So you are going with "former NY Times reporter" and author of Spy Novels and a book that says marijuana cause psychosis over a computational biologist?
Old Buffalo
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I'm going with:

"Chart on left go down, but chart on right go down more."

You can discredit the source, but the more productive response would be to combat the actual claim.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
The Big12Ag
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Old Buffalo said:

I'm going with:

"Chart on left go down, but chart on right go down more."

You can discredit the source, but the more productive response would be to combat the actual claim.
"Chart on left go down, but chart on right go down more." Now that I can believe, both you and he are going at this with that level of scrutiny.

Do we agree the claim is that "vaccines are not working"?

And do we agree that the screenshot "on the right" shows both age groups going down equally in October, with no vaccine?

And do we agree that now, in February, after age 60 and up vaccinated, that the screenshot (table) that shows a huge disparity in over age 60 and under age 60 cases and hospitalizations would exhibit a difference in vaccinated vs non vaccinated populations?
HotardAg07
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The last I had seen, only 20 people who have been vaccinated in Israel have become positive for COVID, with over a 95% efficacy. Vaccines are working.
culdeus
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HotardAg07 said:

The last I had seen, only 20 people who have been vaccinated in Israel have become positive for COVID, with over a 95% efficacy. Vaccines are working.


And it seems to be getting stronger as time goes on. I have no idea what the guy with the wall of charts is trying to say. Twitter isn't a good medium to lay out some theory with charts.
nortex97
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HotardAg07 said:

The last I had seen, only 20 people who have been vaccinated in Israel have become positive for COVID, with over a 95% efficacy. Vaccines are working.
Correct. It seems it is well within 1 SD of predicted efficacy.

Quote:

Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine is showing 92 percent effectiveness in Israel, according to the world's first big controlled investigation on how it works outside of clinical tests.

Only 31 out of 163,000 Israelis vaccinated by Maccabi Healthcare Services were diagnosed with COVID-19 in their first 10 days of full-strength protection, its top vaccine statistics analyst, Anat Ekka Zohar, told The Times of Israel on Thursday.

Maccabi found that an equivalent sample of unvaccinated Israelis was 11 times more likely to be diagnosed with the coronavirus, which allowed it to calculate the effectiveness rate.
Of course, as with anything involving statistics, it then gets more complicated/nuanced, but it is overall great news/data.
amercer
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Israel has a large population of ultra Orthodox Jews who may have been driving the recent spike, even as the vaccine is successfully rolled out.
Old Buffalo
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The Big12Ag said:


"Chart on left go down, but chart on right go down more." Now that I can believe, both you and he are going at this with that level of scrutiny.
Cute.
Quote:

Do we agree the claim is that "vaccines are not working"?
The claim is "Virus gonna virus". Do not confuse confluence with causation.
Quote:

And do we agree that the screenshot "on the right" shows both age groups going down equally in October, with no vaccine?
We can agree that both go down, but age groups were impacted at different points, different elongations of peaks, and more than likely the population for Ages 40-60 is greater than Age 60+.
Quote:

And do we agree that now, in February, after age 60 and up vaccinated, that the screenshot (table) that shows a huge disparity in over age 60 and under age 60 cases and hospitalizations would exhibit a difference in vaccinated vs non vaccinated populations?
Again, there are variables here that are unaccounted for. The basis of the claim is not that vaccines aren't working, it's the fact that seasonality, population infection %, classification, and other variables play a larger role in the outcome than a vaccine.

Further, now that I'm actually analyzing the chart with coffee, we have non-standardized axis, but there comes a point in each segment of the population a "peak" occurs. Future updates on this will clearly define which side is correct, but let's not do a rain dance and claim the monsoon is our doing.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Proposition Joe
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Quote:

Again, there are variables here that are unaccounted for. The basis of the claim is not that vaccines aren't working, it's the fact that seasonality, population infection %, classification, and other variables play a larger role in the outcome than a vaccine.


Was there anyone ever claiming seasonality and population infection aren't playing a role?

Or was that just your excuse to use your "virus gonna virus" catch-phrase?
The Big12Ag
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Old Buffalo said:



Quote:

Do we agree the claim is that "vaccines are not working"?
The claim is "Virus gonna virus". Do not confuse confluence with causation.

Again, there are variables here that are unaccounted for. The basis of the claim is not that vaccines aren't working, it's the fact that seasonality, population infection %, classification, and other variables play a larger role in the outcome than a vaccine.


Oh, you posted someone else's tweet, with no commentary of your own, and that twitter account stated "THAT, FRIENDS, IS NOT EVIDENCE VACCINES ARE WORKING." so I assumed you agreed with him. Or perhaps you agree they are working, but just that the selected data does not prove it, but that was not clear since you added no commentary.

"Virus gonna virus" is a dumb catch phrase, not a claim. But if you are claiming that this novel virus behaves like other past respiratory viruses, are you suggesting vaccines have not been proven historically to be effective in battling viruses? Are you saying mankind has not been demonstrated as having the ability to impact virus spread and impact?

I would agree that a large global downtrend, with differences in localized areas obviously, in cases began before the vaccination campaign. And if someone said "we started vaccinating in december and look at cases!" as a claim that only vaccinations were causing that decline then I would disagree - many variables as you said and due to incredibly low numbers of immunizations it would suggest immunizations to date is the smallest contributor to the decline.

However, when looking at the table data provided in a tweet above you can see very different behavior in the groups that are and are not vaccinated. Even if both are trending down overall, if there is a notable difference in the rate then it can still tell a story. As with anything someone posts from Twitter I have to add the disclaimer "IF THAT DATA IS IN FACT CORRECT", but assuming it is then it would suggest the vaccines are effective. As their studies showed and as past vaccines have been demonstrated to be successful against influenza respiratory viruses. If we think Coronaviruses will not respond as well - I believe this is the first vaccine against coronaviruses? - then we'd have to believe the pharmaceutical company studies were falsified and will wait to see the worldwide data independently reviewed.
HotardAg07
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Updated graphs.
ORAggieFan
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That more critically ill number is interesting.....
nortex97
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ORAggieFan said:

That more critically ill number is interesting.....
80 or 89 percent of those 60 and older have gotten the vaccine, most of those under that age have not, so the logical inference is that...absent the vaccination of the elderly/at risk, there would definitely be a lot more seriously ill/dead elderly.

At least, that's how I read the abstract, not sure on the data.
Dad
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https://www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-sees-only-544-covid-infections-among-523000-fully-vaccinated-israelis/
Is this a legit news source? If so, it sounds promising. I found the link by doing a google search for Israel vaccine covid or something like that.
amercer
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Seems legit

" Overall, we rate the Times of Israel Left-Center biased based on editorial positions that slightly favor the left. We also rate them High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing and a clean fact check record."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mediabiasfactcheck.com/times-of-israel/amp/
AgLiving06
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Reuters Link

Quote:

Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE said on Thursday that real-world data from Israel suggests their COVID-19 vaccine is 94% effective in preventing asymptomatic infections, suggesting it could significantly reduce virus transmission.

The companies also said the latest analysis of the Israeli data shows the vaccine was 97% effective in preventing symptomatic disease, severe disease and death. That is in line with the 95% efficacy reported in the vaccine's late-stage clinical trial in December.

ORAggieFan
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AgLiving06 said:

Reuters Link

Quote:

Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE said on Thursday that real-world data from Israel suggests their COVID-19 vaccine is 94% effective in preventing asymptomatic infections, suggesting it could significantly reduce virus transmission.

The companies also said the latest analysis of the Israeli data shows the vaccine was 97% effective in preventing symptomatic disease, severe disease and death. That is in line with the 95% efficacy reported in the vaccine's late-stage clinical trial in December.


Should this not immediately end the vaccinated people should wear masks debate?
AgLiving06
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ORAggieFan said:

AgLiving06 said:

Reuters Link

Quote:

Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE said on Thursday that real-world data from Israel suggests their COVID-19 vaccine is 94% effective in preventing asymptomatic infections, suggesting it could significantly reduce virus transmission.

The companies also said the latest analysis of the Israeli data shows the vaccine was 97% effective in preventing symptomatic disease, severe disease and death. That is in line with the 95% efficacy reported in the vaccine's late-stage clinical trial in December.


Should this not immediately end the vaccinated people should wear masks debate?

Only if you're honest and following the science.

Neither of which can be said for this particular government.
beerad12man
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Yes, asymptomatic spread was already lower than those showing symptoms, obviously. Less viral load. With this data, it's even more unlikely an asymptomatic person would spread it.

Even the most avid mask supporters should 100% agree that vaccinated people shouldn't need them. Even the very day after vaccination. Not 2 weeks later, 2 months later, just wait for more data to come out, etc. Immediately. In fact, the Drs office or pharmacy should let you walk out without a mask on.

Unless you are moving from not overwhelming hospitals, which would have no chance of happening among vaccinated people, to preventing every last case we can indefinitely.
Gordo14
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ORAggieFan said:

AgLiving06 said:

Reuters Link

Quote:

Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE said on Thursday that real-world data from Israel suggests their COVID-19 vaccine is 94% effective in preventing asymptomatic infections, suggesting it could significantly reduce virus transmission.

The companies also said the latest analysis of the Israeli data shows the vaccine was 97% effective in preventing symptomatic disease, severe disease and death. That is in line with the 95% efficacy reported in the vaccine's late-stage clinical trial in December.


Should this not immediately end the vaccinated people should wear masks debate?


It's not a debate over that. It's whether society can really work on the honor system in thr intermedisry period. A person is not wearing a mask in the grocery store claims to be vaccinated. How do you verify that. Again the point of masks is to help protect those around you - so people lying about vaccination status to not wear a mask is the problem. That's why in public settings we need a more generic approach. If you've been vaccinated there's no reason to wear a mask in ptivate settings, but that's different than what you're suggesting.
Duncan Idaho
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Can't they just put RFID scanners at the door to scan for the Gate's globalist chip?
beerad12man
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Don't need the honor system with the state and many businesses already not caring even if you don't have it. Something tells me we will be just fine
Hodor
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Duncan Idaho said:

Can't they just put RFID scanners at the door to scan for the Gate's globalist chip?
It should probably be visible to the naked eye, so everyone around you knows without special equipment.

I'm thinking a tattoo. Perhaps something incorporating 666?
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Duncan Idaho
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Hodor said:

Duncan Idaho said:

Can't they just put RFID scanners at the door to scan for the Gate's globalist chip?
It should probably be visible to the naked eye, so everyone around you knows without special equipment.

I'm thinking a tattoo. Perhaps something incorporating 666?

The chrome logo

ORAggieFan
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Gordo14 said:

ORAggieFan said:

AgLiving06 said:

Reuters Link

Quote:

Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE said on Thursday that real-world data from Israel suggests their COVID-19 vaccine is 94% effective in preventing asymptomatic infections, suggesting it could significantly reduce virus transmission.

The companies also said the latest analysis of the Israeli data shows the vaccine was 97% effective in preventing symptomatic disease, severe disease and death. That is in line with the 95% efficacy reported in the vaccine's late-stage clinical trial in December.


Should this not immediately end the vaccinated people should wear masks debate?


It's not a debate over that. It's whether society can really work on the honor system in thr intermedisry period. A person is not wearing a mask in the grocery store claims to be vaccinated. How do you verify that. Again the point of masks is to help protect those around you - so people lying about vaccination status to not wear a mask is the problem. That's why in public settings we need a more generic approach. If you've been vaccinated there's no reason to wear a mask in ptivate settings, but that's different than what you're suggesting.

So, it's about lack of trust and manipulation rather than truth? That doesn't sound like following the science or sound public health policy.
AggieDoc10
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I keep seeing these headlines. The hospitals in the West Bank are at 100% capacity with COVID. If I can say this and we can just take this medically and please not get political (PLEASE!), The West Bank is as close to Israel as Bryan is to College Station. They are separated only by a wall and border control guards. Israel and the West Bank are in a battle over whether Israel should vaccinate its West Bank residents (it controls the West Bank, which is not the same as the Gaza Strip, if you are not familiar). So I see lots of debates, mask comments, etc. I don't know all the answers. What I DO know is this. Palestinians who lives in Jerusalem, (the east side, which is the Palestinian side, politically--post 1967) were vaccinated along with the western (Israeli side). However, many of these Palestinians are related to people in the rest of the West Bank, who Israel refuses (as of now) to vaccinate. The media is not quite telling the whole of the story (shock, I know). Obviously, the battle itself is political, but please know that my response is not intended to be anything but a further narrative as to why Israel is having continued problems with COVID. If you take a look at a map and see where exactly Israel is, including the settlements (areas of the West Bank where Israelis live in, essentially, gated communities but next to Palestinians), you will see that they are neighbors, where half the street is vaccinated and half not. Theoretically, the never come in contact, as Israelis are cautioned from interacting with Palestinians, but consider if certain streets in Bryan were vaccinated but most neighborhoods were not. St Joe's was at capacity, but all of CS's adults were vaccinated and moving about their business. That's sort of what it's like, only the sides don't cross.

Again, please, please, I beg you, no ugly comments on either side. No one needs more ugliness right now, right? :-) I am totally not trying to argue for or against either. I just want to bring to the table what I know (personally, not from reading). Hope this is helpful!
BBQ4Me
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Considering this is a forum about COVID and medical issues, it's a little strange that you inject politics into the thread and then ask people to not get into politics
BowSowy
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Agreed. Plus, the excessive use of parentheses is very annoying.
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