Not an epidemiologist..

Roughly 100 million Americans want the vaccine "really badly" (sources: news quotes, plus my local county registration rate of 27% to date-20k/75k). They will all have shot one by end of April at 1 million new per day. I think we can get another day 50 million to take it over the summer months if it is convenient enough (at corner drug store, every doctor office, without much preparation etc). Totaling 150 mil, which seems reasonable given that 33-40% of the people don't want it at all, plus 75 million kids who aren't eligible. Since kids are not superspeeders nor really see any symptoms, total 225 million with some protection. Now to date we have roughly 83 million infections if we had a true count, but those overlap with the vaccination folk at 45%, so add another 40 million with natural infection protection.

Total of 265 million with vaccine plus infection protection. Leaving some 65 million targets, trending down to 50 million by football season thru additional infections. These people will be well blockaded by the others which mean rate that they will get it will be well off the earlier rates.

My guess is 5,000 cases per day at this point, death rate of .5%, or 25 deaths per day. Each death is a tragedy, but at some point the responsibility has to shift back to the person who passed on the vaccine when wildly available..that is if the variants don't get totally loose around here. With those numbers we will be full capacity, no masks..although we will still see some people masking (due to an abundance of caution)..

Open for feedback..tell me where my math is wrong/give your predictions!

coolerguy12 said:

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Since kids are not superspeeders nor really see any symptoms

Kids, for the most part, still wear masks at school or don't go to school even though the bolded statement is 100% correct. Logic doesn't matter. The only thing I disagree with you on is your final prediction. Fauci has already said masks are here to stay until there is zero risk from the virus. So pretty much never. And even if so, they will say we eradicated the flu with masks so we have to do our teeny tiny itsy bitsy minuscule part to keep wearing masks through forever.

It doesn't end till we make it end.

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Not to defend Fauci, but that isn't what he said. I don't have the quote to post but it wasn't about there being zero threat. More along the lines that he couldn't fully predict when we can stop using masks but that once we have enough control over the spread, we should be fine to remove them.

Yes, there will be a push to keep masks b/c of the lowering of the spread of other viruses but I doubt it takes hold. It's actually healthier to let viruses spread to build immunity over all. It would be a bad idea to have widespread mask wearing after Covid isn't a big threat. I think certain states will begin repealing mask mandates by the summer.